STAR NFL PREVIEW Sun: Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles

Many expected the NFC North to be the strongest division in this Conference this season with three sides making the playoffs, but in the end it’s the NFC East that has prevailed and produced the Championship game from their two representatives with the Eagles meeting once again with the Commanders, writes ANDY RICHMOND.

The score from the regular season stands at 1-1, the Eagles winning 26-18 at home in Week 11, with the Commanders levelling the series in Week 16 winning with a late comeback 36-33, a game that saw Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts leave early with a concussion.

Now the stage is set for their third and most important meeting of the season, and one that will take the winner to the Super Bowl in New Orleans to play either the Bills or Chiefs. The Eagles have a storied history with the Super Bowl, having made appearances in 1981, 2005, 2018, and 2023. Their most recent Super Bowl appearance was in 2023, where they lost to the Kansas City Chiefs in a close 38-35 game. For the Commanders, the Super Bowl hasn’t been a concern since 1992, which was when they made their last appearance overcoming the Bills 37-24.

It won’t be easy for the Commanders who were the No6 seed coming into the post season but they have won twice on the road, first of all defeating the Buccaneers in Tampa and then causing a shock by knocking out the No1 seeded Detroit Lions 45-31. For the Eagles, their path has been a little easier, first of all beating the Packers 22-10 before 28-22 victory over the Rams last week in the snow. With the Commanders putting paid to the Lions it all means that Philadelphia will host the NFC Championship game and the Commanders and Eagles will face each other for the third time this season.

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Historically, the Commanders have been victorious more than the Eagles in this matchup, but not by much. Washington have won four more games, with a 90-86-6 record against Philadelphia. This marks the fifth time divisional rivals have met in a conference championship since 2000. The Pittsburgh Steelers beat the Baltimore Ravens in 2008; the Green Bay Packers beat the Chicago Bears in 2010; the Seattle Seahawks beat the San Francisco 49ers in 2013 and the 49ers beat the Rams in 2021. The winning team went on to win the Super Bowl each time, so that would be a good omen for either of these teams.

Much of what the Commanders have been able to do on offence has been based on an aggressive disposition and it’s unlikely that they will change here. Washington has gone for a league-high 9 fourth downs in these playoffs, converting 6. The Commanders have converted a league-best 81.3% (26-of-32) of fourth downs on the season. If you are going to pull off upsets you also need to be able to play mistake free football something that the Commanders have been able to do in the post season recording zero turnovers and conceding just one sack. To be able to do that again they will need to have rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels continuing to play at a high level. Daniels will be the eighth rookie quarterback to start in the Conference Championship in the Super Bowl era and the sixth since 2000, but he will looking to become the first rookie quarterback to make it to the Super Bowl.

All seven previous quarterbacks were attached to defences that ranked in the top five in points allowed on the season, the problem that Daniels has to deal with is that Washington’s rank 18th and now have to try and contain an Eagles offence that has been very efficient this season. Daniels also guides an offence that comes up against an Eagles defence that carries this narrative. No defence has given up fewer points than Philadelphia this postseason, as the Eagles allow just 17.6 points per game. The unit also holds opponents to the fewest yards per play (4.8) and yards per game (286.1).

Looking at the Eagles offensively one name stands out like a colossus on this season and that’s running back Saquon Barkley. Throughout his career, Saquon Barkley has feasted against the Commanders defence. The Eagles running back averages 137.5 scrimmage yards when playing against Washington. The only player to average more scrimmage yards against a single opponent in NFL history — including the playoffs in 10 or more games — is former Cleveland Browns running back Jim Brown (147.9). One of the keys to the game will be can the Commanders contain Barkley who was incredible last Sunday, rushing 26 times for 205 yards. He had touchdown runs of 62 and 78 yards. Those were fifth and sixth touchdown runs of 50 or more yards for Barkley this season.

In Philadelphia’s two regular-season meetings with Washington, Barkley slammed the Commanders for a combined 55/296/4 (5.4 YPC) rushing line plus 52 yards receiving. Washington have remained plenty vulnerable on the ground in the playoffs, giving up 39/211/2 (5.4 YPC) rushing and 10/90/1 receiving to Bucs and Lions running backs over the last two weeks.

With the Eagles being so dominant on the ground it would be unusual to see them shift away from their usual focus of running the football although they do have the personnel to do so if that particular shift in the game plan was required. The one slight worry for the Eagles is will their quarterback Jaken Hurts be operating at full capacity. Hurts suffered a knew injury late in the game against the Rams and despite claims to the contrary he may be a little limited here and that would take away from the threat that Hurts carries in the running game, after all he opened the game against the Rams last week with a 44-yard TD run, the longest of his career.

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With their run game being some dominant, it’s not really been incumbent on Hurts to throw much in fact he thrown for fewer than 200 yards in four of his last five games. He’s only thrown one interception since Week 4 but he must be careful about holding onto the ball too long as that has resulted in some significant sacks, inviting pressure has been a problem for Hurts this season. No quarterback has a longer time to throw after the snap than Hurts this season (3.07 seconds). To be successful against Hurts the Commanders will have to bring pressure, if they allow him to release the ball quickly they will be vulnerable. On throws within 2.5 seconds of the snap, Washington has allowed 7.0 Y/A (25th) and a 7.8% touchdown rate (dead last).

Hurts has attempted more than 25 passes in just two of his last 13 appearances and if the Eagles are successful on the ground here he may not need to again. If the Eagles are forced to turn to their passing game though they have the receivers in A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith plus TE Dallas Goedert to be able play in that particular facet of the game. Brown only pulled in 2-of-7 targets for 14 yards on Sunday but he did have a drop on a downfield target, but Brown has now been limited to 60 receiving yards on 6 receptions over the past three games. However, when the Eagles do have to throw its Brown who commands the highest rate of the targets.

For Brown, it all comes down to how much the Eagles are throwing. Brown had games of 5-65-0 (8 targets) and 8-97-1 (15 targets) when these teams played in the regular season. Smith is very much the WR2 in the offence but as with Brown it’s the volume that he receives in a team that can get very run heavy that skew his stats. Smith’s ceiling always depends upon the Eagles’ need to throw.

The more “reliable” pass catching option especially when Hurts needs to get the ball out quickly is TE Dallas Goedert. Last Sunday, Goedert collected all four of his targets for 56 yards and since returning in Week 18, he has games of 55, 47, and 56 yards. Here he gets a favourable matchup against a Commanders defence that has struggled against TEs, Bucs and Lions TEs combined to catch eight of nine targets for 83 yards and a touchdown against Washington in the past two weeks. Goedert only played against the Commanders in the Week 11 win catching all five targets for 61 yards and he could once again be a problem for the Washington defence.

The Commanders finished the regular season ranked fourth in points per game (29.1) and have scored 30 or more points in four of their previous seven games, one of which came in Week 16 against the Eagles (36). That seven-game stretch coincides with a seven-game win streak to end the regular season and the Divisional Round. The Commanders may be the underdogs here but they are playing some good football and can’t be easily written off especially with rookie QB Jayden Daniels playing at such a high level.

The underlying ethos of the Commanders offence is to sustain drives but the loss of right guard Sam Cosmi who tore his ACL against the Lions will make that a more difficult concept to fulfil and the Eagles do have a defence that has the capability to overwhelm the Commanders with DT Jalen Carter even more dangerous now that Cosmi is missing. The Eagles have allowed 23 points or fewer in 13 of their last 14 games. Daniels has clocked up a combined 46-of-71 passing (65%), 449 yards (6.3 YPA), and a 6:3 TD-to-INT ratio plus 99 yards rushing against the Eagles this season but he’ll need to be at that level again to keep the Commanders in the game again here, that’s not to say he can’t but despite his overall numbers against the Eagles this season he has produced a mixed bag of stats against them in the two contests so far.

One element of Daniels game that is exceptional for a rookie has been the ability to close out close games in tough spots, elevating the offence using some smart, effective, and efficient play calling. 41.6% of his throws in the fourth quarter have resulted in a first down or a touchdown, fourth in the league. Even if you slow down Daniels from a passing efficiency stance, you have to contend with his rushing ability. Like many mobile QBs he’s running more as the season progresses – the Eagles contained Daniels in the first matchup (18 yards on 7 runs) but then allowed 81 yards on 9 runs when they played in the rematch, that’s an area they will need to watch.

The Commanders run game has become more of a committee with Brian Robinson and Austin Ekeler sharing the bulk of the work and Jeremy McNichols providing a change of pace. For the most part, the Eagles have controlled Robinson on the ground this season but the Commanders did manage to get their backfield operating efficiently against the Lions with Robinson leading the way rushing 15 times for 77 yards and two TDs. Ekeler’s role tends to grow when the team has to play from behind with his pass catching ability out of the backfield becoming especially useful. Through two playoff games, Ekeler has turned 14 carries into 74 yards (5.3 YPC) and secured seven of eight targets for 67 yards. The Eagles have been one of the more difficult teams to run on this season after holding opposing backfields to 1.64 yards before contact per attempt (third fewest) and, 4.3 yards per carry (11th).

All of that will mean that the passing game will be something that the Commanders are going to have to lean into especially if they get behind. If the Eagles top perimeter CB Quinyon Mitchell isn’t available to play then this will hand the Commanders an advantage in the passing game or at least it will to their main wide receiver Terry McLaurin. McLaurin’s regular season receiving lines against Philadelphia were 1/10/0 and 5/60/1, he did score a 32-yard TD strike in the second matchup, but Washington have struggled to get McLaurin targets in both games. If Mitchell is fit to play the onus in the Commanders passing game may well fall onto their other receiving options.

One of those would be Dyami Brown who has posted stat lines of 5-89-1 and 6-98-0 in his two post season outings, setting a new career high for yardage in each game. Brown appears to have placed himself ahead now of the Olamide Zaccheaus as the WR2 and although his matchup isn’t an easy one he could see plenty of action if the Commanders can’t get their ground game going. TE Zach Ertz isn’t a prolific yardage gainer but he’s a safe pair of hands and this ex-Eagle caught all five targets for 28 yards and a touchdown on Saturday in Detroit. Ertz has only reached 50 yards in a game once in his past 11 outings, but he has found the end zone seven times in his past nine games and the Eagles allowed the Rams TEs to catch 9-of-12 targets for 63 yards and 2 touchdowns on Sunday.

In terms of how this game is going to play out, the Eagles have all the tools they need to control the game from the off plus home-field advantage and the onus will be on the Commanders to force the Eagles to deviate from their normal strategy. The Commanders are 5-3 outright and 6-2 against the spread (ATS) as underdogs this season with three straight outright wins. The Eagles have won nine straight home games (5-4 ATS) and its going to take a phenomenal effort from Daniels and the Commanders to win a third straight road game to make the Super Bowl and its expected that the Eagles will have just too much for them to keep their dream alive.

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