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AUTHOR: William Kedjanyi

STAR POLITICS: Rochdale By-Election

It’s a by-election like no other. For a start, there are no women from a field of 11 candidates. The Labour Party candidate has been disowned by his party. So has The Green Party candidate. The Greens are now supporting an Independent, who is a retired vicar and Just Stop Oil activist facing jail – his court date is today. The Reform UK candidate used to be the MP for the area – for Labour no less until he was brought down by a sexting scandal. Oh, and the odds-on favourite is a six-term Parliamentarian who goes by the name of George Galloway. 

Before a vote has been cast in anger, Rochdale has been one of the most remarkable by-elections of recent times, writes our Political Betting Analyst William Kedjanyi, and whoever wins, this should be a fascinating night for political anoraks and political bettors alike. We’ll be covering any market moves ahead of the vote along with stats, insight and analysis ahead of the latest by-election.

Just scroll below for the latest on the vote, and the rest of our political developments!

🗳️ Analysis

Thoughts, reflections and takeaways on a big win for Galloway and a bad night for most, apart from the Independent David Tully:

🥀 A Nightmare for Keir Starmer… But one that he can wake up from. There was never going to be a good outcome for him or the Labour Party from the moment that Azhar Ali was disowned as the candidate, and Galloway’s media presence is going to cause a headache whilst putting more pressure on their Israel-Gaza stance.

However, the national picture remains as strong as any opposition could hope for. Not forgetting the old adage that by-elections should not be directly compared to general elections, this was a unique situation where Labour effectively didn’t run against a well-known figure with a long history of thriving in this specific scenario, who has a highly personal vote. A by-election where over 60% of the vote went to effective independents is going to tell us less than nothing about a scenario where Labour start with a 20-point advantage.

Some MP’s – will be looking nervously at the potential repercussions of highly motivated votes based on the atrocities in Gaza – and a drop in support for Labour amongst the Muslim community (according to Survation, Labour are holding on to only 72% of their 2019 Muslim supporters) has been a concern for some for a while.

However, in the constituencies with the highest Muslim population – 38 English constituencies have more than 1 in 5 Muslim residents – Labour’s majorities are so big that even a further drop would not threaten their majority. A worry for some MP’s may be independent candidates running very focused campaigns on Gaza, but few would have Galloway’s profile and local issues will also be just as important.

❓Without data, all we have is noise. The market for this by-election has moved here there and everywhere. The 2/7 starting favourite came fourth and didn’t even show up to the count. The eventual wide margin winner started out at 3/1, touched 1/3 and then went off evens. The surprise Independent who finished second was a 500/1 shot at the off who was 200’s the night before. With previous little data to go on, Rochdale was a trader’s dream with wild gambles that had – mostly – little basis in reality. The presence of Galloway – and the unique position of major parties disowning candidates or running an entirely unsuitable one – added go the confusion and bettors should be on the lookout for volatile contests.

🗣️ Candidates Matter. In an election where Labour and the Greens effectively disowned their candidates, the Liberal Democrats had their own local campaign controversy, the Reform candidate was a disgraced former Labour MP, and the Conservative candidate took a holiday midway through the campaign, perhaps it shouldn’t be a surprise that two effective independents were dominant. Reform – a bit more on them later – might be wondering what could have been if someone other than Simon Danzcuk had run, Labour had a nightmare in a seat they were defending (how would Paul Waugh have done? Perhaps he might be back at the General Election) and some party chiefs might be wondering what could have been.

❓The Reform Question This is the third time in a fortnight we’ve had a chance to look at Reform UK’s real-life performance, all in elections where the situation was potentially favourable – Leave voting seats with disaffected voters, and a lack of Conservative presence on the ground in two of them.

Nationally, Reform are polling in double figures – YouGov’s latest poll has them on 14%, just 6 behind the Tories – and the party will be pleased with results of 10.4% in Kingswood and 13% in Wellingborough. Their performance last night was disappointing, although one has to take Simon Danzcuk’s history (forced out in disgrace) into account.

A repeat at an election will obviously damage the Tories hugely, but bettors might want to be wary – they’ve lost their three match bets to the Tories in the past few weeks – and they could find it harder to make much more progress before a General Election.

🗳️ Galloway Wins! 

The results are in and George Galloway will be the new MP for Rochdale! Galloway, the Workers Pary of GB candidate, has won the Rochdale by-election by almost 6,000 votes.

The former Labour and Respect Party MP, whose campaign focused heavily on Gaza, overturned a Labour majority with 12,335 votes. Galloway addressed Labour Leader and heavy favourite to be the next Prime Minister Keir Starmer in his victory speech by saying: “Keir Starmer, this is for Gaza.”

David Tully, an independent, came second in a remarkable performance with 6,638 votes. The Tories (Paul Ellison) finished third, ahead of Azhar Ali, who massively underperformed market expectations and just beat the Liberal Democrats. Simon Danzcuk of Reform UK.

Here’s the results:

In alphabetical order, here’s how many votes the 11 candidates received:

Azhar Ali (on the ballot as a Labour candidate) – 2,402
Mark Coleman (Independent) – 455
Simon Christopher Danczuk (Reform UK) – 1,968
Iain Donaldson (Liberal Democrats) – 2,164
Paul Simon Ellison (Conservative) – 3,731
George Galloway (Workers Party of Britain) – 12,335
Michael Howarth (Independent) – 246
William Leckie Howarth (Independent) – 523
Guy Nicholas Otten (Green) – 436
Ravin Rodent Subortna (Monster Raving Loony Party) – 209
David Anthony Tully (Independent) – 6,638

Vote Share By Party (and change from 2019 General Election):

⚙️ WPB: 39.7% (New)
🙋 IND (Tully): 21.3% (New)
🌳 CON: 12.0% (-19.2)
🌹 LAB*: 7.7% (-43.9)
🔶 LDM: 7.0 (-0.0)
➡️ RFM: 6.3% (-1.8)
🙋 IND (W. Howarth): 1.7% (New)
🙋 IND (Coleman): 1.5% (New)
🌍 GRN*: 1.4% (-0.7)
🙋 IND (M. Howarth): 0.8% (New)
🎩 MRLP: 0.7% (New)

State of the House of Commons now:

Conservatives: 348 (-17)
Labour: 199 (-3)
SNP: 43 (-5)
Independents: 19 (+19)
Liberal Democrats: 15 (+4)
DUP: 8 (=)
Sinn Fein: 7 (=)
Plaid: 3 (-1)
SDLP: 2 (=)
ALBA: 2 (+2)
Green: 1 (=)
Alliance: 1 (=)
Workers Party of Great Britain: 1 (+1)

🗳️ From The Count: 

Clear narratives are emerging from the count, where we’re not that far from a result according to LBC’s Henry Riley. Here are the headline takeaways at 1.50am:

• George Galloway is said to have won, and by a decent margin at that, according to his campaign.

• Azhar Ali has suffered massively from Mr Galloway’s campaign to the point he will not be in attendance at the count – the Lib Dems could well have beaten him according to some reports

• It’s possible that Reform UK have underperformed badly – Richard Tice has told reporters ‘This is not a free and fair election’

• Turnout for the by-election was 39.7%, marginally higher than the Wellingborough turnout of 38.1%, and Kingswood of 37.1%.

🥀 They think it’s all over…. Is it now?

Since the polls closed there’s only been one line from Rochdale. It’s Galloway’s night. A source close to George Galloway tells Sky News that he has “won comfortably” in the Rochdale by-election before it’s even 11pm. His campaign manager Henry Riley of LBCs says that “I am happy to say that we have won, and won comfortably.”

At the moment he’s 1.31 (76.3%) with Smarkets and 1.18% (84.7%) with Betfair. A reminder that he closed as an even money (50%) with Star Sports. How things can change!

A note of caution, though, from the New Statesman’s Ben Walker: 

The polls have closed in Rochdale, and here are my main closing thoughts:

🥀 Hiding in plain sight?

Was Azhar Ali dismissed too quickly? The betting suggests the answer is yes. With a major local presence, the benefit of being attached to a party with a 20-point poll lead, and – in hindsight – a position on Palestine that was just as strong as George Galloway, maybe we were all too quick to write off a candidate who would have more than held their weight as an independent (at face value) before one factors in the passive benefit of being the labour candidate. As a chronically online person, it’s important to remember that big storis in Westminster often won’t punch through to voters in the way we expect.

🔵 The Blue Ripples?

Having not been in Rochdale, I’ve had to rely upon many excellent contacts and reporters to get a sense of what’s happened in the area. My best reading – admittedly from afar – is that Reform have once again been more visible than the Tories, although there’s a twist here compared to Kingswood and Wellingborough – their candidate Simon Danzcuk, the former Labour MP for this seat, was suspended from the party after it emerged he had exchanged explicit messages with a 17-year-old girl. He’s brushed this off several times but it remains to be seen how much constituents remember of that – in the 2017 General Election he managed just 1.8% and lost his deposit, but that was as an independent.

❓ Won’t Somebody think of the Independents?

Depending on your definition there were six Independents running in Rochdale. Two of them are expected to dominate, but what of the other four?

David Tully was a gamble with Star, being backed from 200/1 to 66/1 overnight, whilst the Reverend Mark Coleman was receiving support from the Greens and a couple of Labour councillors to boot. Could their focus on local issues have given them an advantage? Much might depend on turnout.

🗳️  Scores On The Doors:

Here were the closing prices with Star Sports:

🗳️ Outright

Workers Party of Britain (George Galloway): 1/1
Azhar Ali, Labour Party (disowned by party, running as independent) : 8/11
Simon Danczuk, Reform UK: 50/1
Iain Donaldson, Liberal Democrats: 50/1
Paul Ellison, Conservatives: 100/1
David Tully (Independent): 66/1
Guy Otten, Green Party (disowned by party): 500/1
Michael Howarth (Independent): 500/1
Rvd. Mark Coleman (Independent): 500/1
The Official Monster Raving Loony Party: 1,000/1
William Howarth (Independent): 1,000/1

📊 Workers Party of Britain Vote Share %
Less than 20%: 8/1
20% – 24.99%: 6/1
25% – 29.99%: 4/1
30% – 34.99%: 11/4
35% – 39.99%: 3/1
40% – 44.99%: 5/1
45% – 49.99%: 9/1
50% or More: 16/1

🔵 Reform UK v The Conservatives

Reform: 13/8
Conservatives: 4/9

🗳️ New favourites! (again!)

And just like that… we have a new favourite!

Azhar Ali – currently ? with Star Sports, has returned to favouritism after sustained support today. Former favourite George Galloway (currently ? with starsports.bet) has drifted, having been as short as 1/3 after a wild campaign in which Ali went to 6/4 (having started out as a 2/7 shot) following his party’s abandonment of him as a candidate

The betting has this event as a two-horse race, although we’ve had significant interest in the match bet between the Tories (represented by Paul Ellison) and Reform UK (represented by Simon Danzcuk), where the Tories are 4/9 now after steady support overnight and this afternoon. Reform are 13/8.

🗳️ George, George, George 

Paul Krishnamurty – a friend of ours here and noted political trader and punter – makes a strong case for one candidate on Betting.Betfair. It’s a good read, and one with decent context for past performances from Galloway in by-elections. Click here to read it. 

This is a very good analysis from Stats for Lefties (affiliated with Novara Media), who has benchmarked Galloway’s performance in similar seats over the past few years. It’s worth taking a read if you haven’t yet punted – and will give a good mention.

 

🗳️ New joint favourites! 

Hot off the press:

 

 

🗳️ What are the key local issues in Rochdale? 

From the very start of this election, there’s been a huge amount of attention on the crisis in Gaza. That is no surprise – it has made waves in British politics since October the 7th, for obvious reasons, well before the tragic passing of Sir Tony Lloyd.

With a sizeable Muslim population – 36% according to the 2021 census – the issue can be expected to be extra important, and it’s no surprise that both favourites George Galloway and Azhar Ali have made it a central part of their campaigning. Since disowning Ali for conspiracy theory comments unearthed by the Daily Mail, Labour have moved to calling for an ‘immediate humanitarian ceasefire’ in Gaza, whilst also clashing with the SNP in Parliament, who walked out of the chamber in fury last week after Sir Lindsay selected a Labour amendment to their opposition debate calling for a humanitarian ceasefire.

Local issues are sure to have a major say though. Residents are tired of the area’s poor national image and the recent struggles of the town centre – like many other areas across the country – along with the cost-of-living crisis and poor NHS performance. Housing too, has been spoken about quite often in many media reports. Some candidates – notably Simon Danzcuk of Reform UK, Paul Ellison of the Conservatives, and the Independent David Tully – have sought to make local issues the cornerstone of their campaign and appeal to local residents for whom Gaza would not be the main concern.

Simon Danczuk in particular has pushed on this angle, Telling Sky News: “The choice is between me and Galloway and there is a real difference between what I would stand for, which is Rochdale, and what he would stand for, which is Gaza.”

George Galloway’s campaign has campaigned on local issues – namely to return a maternity ward to Rochdale, reopen the indoor market, organise a consortium to save Rochdale FC, and clean up the town hall – although his leaflets have described Sir Keir Starmer’s “pro-Israel” Labour Party and Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives as “two cheeks of the same backside”.

Notable Local Issues:

– Town Hall/Town Centre Decline
– NHS Performance/Maternity Ward
– Rochdale FC
– Housing
– Safeguarding concerns

🗳️ The latest live odds: 

? Labour (Ahzar Ali)
? Workers Party (George Galloway)
? Conservatives (Paul Ellison)
? Reform UK (Simon Danczuk)
? Lib Dems (Iain Donaldson)
? Greens (Guy Otten)
? Rvd. Mark Coleman (Ind)
? David Tully (Independent)
? Michael Howarth (Independent)
? Monster Raving Loony Party
? Michael Howarth (Independent)

🗳️Let the voting commence! 

Polls have opened in Rochdale, as 11 contenders bid to replace the late Tony Lloyd in a chaotic contest which has been heavily influenced by the war in Gaza and local issues. Here’s the latest update from our political trader John Brackenridge on the early moves:

The polls are open and we’re now 8/15 from 8/13 for George Galloway. We’re also now top industry price on Azhar Ali at 6/4, whilst we Saw some money for David Tulley last night, who was backed from 250/1 into 100/1. The Tories are now 1/2 in the match be against Reform, who are 6/4 Reform.

🗳️ The Galloway Formguide

George Galloway is no stranger to an election – this will be his fifteenth as a candidate and his 12th for Westminster.

Since being expelled from Labour, he’s stood in seven elections or by-elections, as follows:

2005 General Election (Respect, Bethnal Green and Bow): Won with 15,801 votes, 39.1%
2010 General Election (Respect, Poplar and Limehouse): Third with 8,160 votes, 17.5%
2012 Bradford West by-election (Respect): Won with 18,341 votes, 55.9%
2015 General Election (Respect, Bradford West): Second with 8,557 votes, 21.2%
2017 General Election (Independent, Manchester Gorton): Third with 2,615 votes, 5.7%
2019 General Election (Independent, West Bromwich East): Sixth with 489 votes, 1.4%
2021 Batley and Spen by-election (Workers Party): Third with 8,264 votes, 21.87%

The elections to focus on might be the by-elections in Bradford West (won in 2012) and Batley and Spen (third in 2021).

During the Bradford West campaign, when Galloway used his party’s anti-war stance to great effect against the three main UK parties of the time (Labour, Conservatives, Liberal Democrats), who focused more on the economy. Indeed “BBC Yorkshire political editor Len Tingle said there had effectively been two campaigns in the seat – one with the three main UK parties focused on the economy and jobs, and the other run by Mr Galloway which had his party’s anti-war message at its forefront.”

Galloway also managed to engage a number of young first time voters or disaffected non voters, in contrast to Labour’s candidate who appeared only to reach out to previous voters, many of whom left the party in that vote.

In Batley and Spen – again hotly contested by-election which turned nasty given high feelings – Kim Leadbetter won, overturning 1/5 favourite Ryan Stephenson for the Tories. Galloway had been a drifter – he went to 20/1 from 12/1. In that election he did not solely campaign from the left, however – he described Respect as “the working-class patriotic alternative to fake woke anti-British ‘Labour’” – doing this whilst targeting Labour voters who may have held socially conservative views.

With the major parties not as heavily involved here the door has been opened to some extent for him this time – and whilst we can expect a big showing, nothing is certain.

🗳️ The Candidates

George Galloway is standing for the Workers Party of Britain. Between 1987 and 2010, and then between 2012 and 2015, Galloway was an MP for three constituencies (Glasgow Hillhead, Bethnal Green and Bow, Bradford West), first for the Labour Party and later for the Respect Party. A broadcaster who is well known for having courted controversy, he’s running on a mix of issues relating to the war in Gaza – and support for Palestine – along with local issues. A veteran of by-elections, he last stood in Batley and Spen, when he came third with 21% of the vote.

Azhar Ali was selected as the Labour Party candidate on the 27th January from an internal shortlist of three, including Westminster lobby journalist Paul Waugh of the iPaper and Nazia Rehman, a member of Wigan Metropolitan Borough Council.

Ali is a Lancashire County councillor and was, at the time of his selection – the leader of the Labour group on the council, but came under massive pressure after a recording obtained by the Daily Mail exposed him backing an anti-semitic conspiracy theory regarding the October 7th atrocity in Israel. He retracted his comment and apologised, but after more information came out, Labour withdrew its support for him on the 12th of February, and since then he has campaigned as an independent despite being on the ballot. Should he win, he would be an independent MP – the whip would be removed straight away.

Conservative Party candidate Paul Ellison owns a local landscaping firm. His campaign (albeit with a week’s break for a holiday) has focused on local issues – in contrast to the discourse regarding Gaza – that improving the town centre, reducing antisocial behaviours, and protecting greenery in Rochdale.

Simon Danczuk, the Reform Party candidate, as the Labour MP for Rochdale from 2010 until 2015, when he was suspended from the party after it emerged he had exchanged explicit messages with a 17-year-old girl. He then sat as an independent until the 2017 election where he ran for re-election as an independent but finished in fifth place with 1.8%, losing his deposit.

His campaign – during which he has received a death threat, and was barred from an event before being offered a later slot, which he refused – has received plenty of attention, like other members of his party in other by-elections.

Iain Donaldson is the Liberal Democrat candidate. He is also the party’s candidate for the nearby constituency of Blackley and Middleton South at the next general election (unless he is elected in Rochdale at this by-election, which is seen as very unlikely according to the market). It will be interesting to see how he performs given the Liberal Democrats’ position in current polling and their history here. As one would expect, he has focused on the NHS, cost of living crisis, and sewage.

Guy Otten, a retired solicitor and tribunal judge, was selected as the Green Party candidate. On the 7th February, after social media posts discussing Gaza and the Muslim faith he had made between 2013 and 2015 were revealed, the party announced that they were no longer endorsing his candidacy and he has not campaigned during the election.

Michael Howarth is a local business owner who owns bars in Rochdale and is campaigning on local issues and support for additional NHS funding. William Howarth is campaigning on issues related to the Rochdale child sex abuse ring and child sexual abuse at large, founding the organisation Parents Against Grooming. David Tully is campaigning on various local issues.

Mark Coleman is a climate change activist and former vicar of Rochdale who was jailed in April 2023 for his part in a Just Stop Oil protest in Bishopsgate, London. He formerly ran as a Green Party candidate for council elections in Liverpool and has green support once again.

The Official Monster Raving Loony Party (yes, they’re real) are on the ballot. Their candidate (again, a real name) Ravin Rodent Subortna is campaigning for the introduction of a 99p coin and the eradication of homelessness amongst hedgehogs.

💷 Where’s the money been going?

It’s been a wild by-election, and the betting hasn’t been far behind. Here’s our political trader John Brackenridge:

“Since we went live with Rochdale we’ve seen swings like never before for well-known reasons. Azhar Ali (the artist formally known from Labour) was a 1/6 shot before the party withdrew their support and has been as big as 2/1 before settling at current odds of 5/4. Galloway and the WPoB was as big as 3/1 before shortening to 4/9 and now 8/13. It does feel like it’s a 2 horse race with other rivals having their own issues.”

“We have today added a couple of new markets. ‘Workers Party of Britain vote share %’ in which we make it 11/4 (favourite) for the party to achieve 30-34.99% of the total vote, which may just get them over the line. Another interesting market already proving popular is the Match Bet between Tories and Reform & who will get the most votes, Reform couldn’t quite bridge the gap in the previous 2 by elections but they seem to have more of a chance here. We go 8/11 Conservatives and Evens Reform in a straight up match. Sure there will be plenty more drama as the polling stations open.”

🗳️ Who’s in it to win it?

Without any further ado, here’s the latest betting at 6.00pm:

Workers Party of Britain (George Galloway): 8/13
Azhar Ali, Labour Party (disowned by party, running as independent) : 5/4
Simon Danczuk, Reform UK: 50/1
Iain Donaldson, Liberal Democrats: 50/1
Paul Ellison, Conservatives: 100/1
David Tully (Independent): 500/1
Guy Otten, Green Party (disowned by party): 500/1
Michael Howarth (Independent): 500/1
Rvd. Mark Coleman (Independent): 500/1
The Official Monster Raving Loony Party: 1,000/1
William Howarth (Independent): 1,000/1

Azhar Ali’s effectively running as an independent despite being beside Labour and so is Guy Otten for the Greens, whilst Mark Coleman is getting the support of the Greens locally (and two Labour Officers).

🔵 Reform UK v the Conservatives

Reform: evens
Conservatives: 8/11

📊 Workers Party of Britain Vote Share %

Less than 20%: 8/1
20% – 24.99%: 6/1
25% – 29.99%: 4/1
30% – 34.99%: 11/4
35% – 39.99%: 3/1
40% – 44.99%: 5/1
45% – 49.99%: 9/1
50% or More: 16/1

What do we know about Rochdale?

County/Area: Eastern Manchester (North West)
Electorate: 78,909
2019 General Election Turnout: 60.1%

According to Electoral Calculus, Rochdale ranks #268 for “Leave”, #463 for “Economic Right Position”, #347 for “National Position” and #55 for “Social Conservative Position” out of 650 seats. The constituency did vote to leave (60%) in 2016, and the then UK Independence Party, now Reform, finished second in the 2015 general election.

There is a significant British Asian community in the constituency, with Muslims accounting for 30% of the population – something that’s been well-covered in the media.

Recent Formguide

🔴 Labour have held the seat since 2010, with three comfortable majorities since a tight contest in 2010.

2015: Labour Majority of 12,442
2017: Labour Majority of 14,819,
2019: Labour Majority of 9,668

Seat History:

Created in 1832, it has often been tightly contested between the Liberal Democrats and Labour. Labour took it from the Lib Dems in 1997 and held it until 2005, when Paul Rowen took the seat into Lib Dem hands.

Political obsessives might remember that in 2010, the seat was brought to national attention when then Prime Minister Gordon Brown was caught on a tape recording describing a local woman, Gillian Duffy, as a “bigot” after having a conversation with her while campaigning (later described as Bigotgate by the UK media). Despite the overall election, Labour still managed to narrowly win the seat from the Liberal Democrats with an 899 majority, with Simon Danczuk leading until he was forced by scandal and Tony Lloyd took over until his passing.

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