It is the subject you can’t escape. Whether you’re wide awake, fast asleep, at work, putting together an acca, or cheering one home with Star at the races, Brexit seems to have seeped into every single part of public life.
And much like nearly everything in life, you can bet on it with us, so there might as well be some sort of guide to it.
So where are we now?
The Government had been aiming to bring back its Brexit Deal (known as the Withdrawal Agreement) to Parliament for a third vote, without any changes compared to the first two votes, which they lost by 230 and 149 votes.
Why would they even bother?
The hope had been that a looming Brexit deadline and the threat of No Deal, or perhaps No Brexit, would force much of the 149 MP’s that she needed to convince to change their minds. Over the weekend that had appeared to be the case; there were plenty of MP’s switching, including Cabinet Minister Esther McVey amongst others, whilst Conservative associations and activists were eventually changing their mind and encouraging others to back the deal.
So will they be able to bring it back?
Not without changes. This is thanks to the ruling that Speaker John Bercow gave on Monday, which cites a convention dating back to 1604 that a defeated motion could not be brought back in the same form during the course of a parliamentary session.
You can’t keep on taking the same legislation to the House of Commons, and other Speakers have said this before.
What does this mean in betting terms?
Well, it’s forced the Government to ask for an extension, something that we were already very short on in betting Terms at Star. We have consistently been just 1/12 for Article 50 to be extended past the 29th March 2019 and 1/10 for Brexit not to be finished by that date.
What happens next?
May has been forced to write a letter to EU leaders that begs them to delay Brexit, and she sent one asking to have an extension until 30th June. This may not work, however.
What markets do we have?
All the markets that you can shake a stick at, and a fair few on the timing at https://starsports.bet/sport/politics.
The main ones are about the timing on when we agree to Leave the EU if at all – for instance our market on when another EU Referendum were to be held, if we should ever get there, or for when the UK would agree to leave either with or without a deal.
Is there any value?
May has applied for an extension to Article 50 that would, if accepted, take the UK to the 30th of June. However, the EU has already been clear that this is not going to be accepted without clear reasoning.
The letter May sent has not impressed many – and indeed French Prime Minister Emmanuel Macron has already said he will oppose any extension at the European Council meeting tomorrow. He is not the only one; indeed without a guarantee of May’s deal passing, it is very hard to see many being in favour of granting the UK approval, and there is simply no guarantee of anything in Britain.
Don’t forget the potential for Hungary or Italy to veto an extension as a measure of cooperation with Eurosceptic parties in Britain too. If one takes all this into account, then the 5/1 for Britain to leave EU with ‘No Brexit Deal’ in place before 1st Apr 19 looks big at 5/1, with the potential for the the price to become much shorter.
RECOMMENDED BETS (scale of 1-100 points)
BACK ‘NO BREXIT DEAL BEFORE 1 APRIL’ 3 points at 5/1 with starsports.bet
PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 1 2017: PROFIT 220.36 points
(excluding Premier League ante-post and Six Nations ante-post)