AUTHOR: James Dowen

STAR PREVIEW: Cheltenham Festival | Day Three

First things first, thank you all for reading and the support you’ve given the preview this week. Hopefully the results turn, but your time is much appreciated here. Not the day we’d hoped for yesterday, but that said to see Bob Olinger and Tiger Roll dominate their races so impressively was a joy – even if the trading team won’t have said the same thing about Bob (see Simon Nott’s betting report). A big hand to Put The Kettle On and all connected with her, whilst the Champion Bumper was tremendously exciting with two top prospects fighting out the finish.

Ride and training performance of the day surely go to Paul Hennessy and Richard Condon for a sensational effort from Heaven Help Us to romp home in the Coral Cup, having gained a strong early position and then stolen three length at least coming down the hill. On we go

Ground: Quickening all the time yesterday according to the finishing speeds and overall times of each race. Watering may occur but we’re now on ground that could be called closer to good according to all measures.

The 2021 Cheltenham Festival™ supporting WellChild
Cheltenham, Gloucestershire
Live on ITV 1 HD & ITV Hub from 1.00pm each day
Live on Racing TV from 10.00am with Mark Your Card

1.20 – Marsh Novices’ Chase (2m5f)

Another small but select field and no reason to oppose Envoi Allen, who hasn’t put a foot wrong in his entire career and has been foot perfect in three starts over fences. Barely troubled to win either the Drinmore or Killiney Novice Chases, he stands head and shoulders above the field and even his price is fair.

Our ante post followers have an each/way position on Chantry House, who was third in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle last year and has won two of his three starts over fences. His poor showing here in December is quickly forgiven – apparently, he had a minor back issue, which has been corrected with surgery since – and the better ground has come just in time for him.

It could also be a big help for Shan Blue, who outjumped his rivals in the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase at Christmas before going too fast too soon in the Scilly Isles Novice Chase when Sporting John outstayed him in heavy ground, and he rates a major each/way player here. Chatham Street Lad gave Mick Winters and his connections an absolute dream when destroying the field in the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup and is respected here, but the handicapper may have got the better of him when he was just third in the Dan & Joan Moore Memorial Handicap Chase next time out and it’s possible the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup just fell apart around him – and all his best form is on soft ground.

Fusil Raffles will love the ground and has to be considered an each/way threat with the surface in his favour – he was too quick for the promising stayer Lieutenant Rocco here in December when giving

Asterion Forlonge is evidently talented, but he hated going left-handed when causing carnage in the Supreme, and bar an impressive chasing debut at Punchestown, hasn’t jumped at all well, falling twice and disappointing when a well beaten fourth in the Flogas. Better ground could be a benefit for Blackbow over this trip and Darver Star too, the latter of whom may be overpriced if he can take a lead rather than being too close to the pace.

1.55 – Pertemps Final (3m)

As ever, all of the 23 can be given a chance so our advice will focus on our selections. We can expect a typically decent gallop however, and it’s worth thinking about how the ground may be riding (at the time of writing, there has been no rain still and the ground may be trending towards good).

Mrs Milner put up a fine effort when beaten a neck by On The Blind Side here in a Listed Handicap Hurdle at the Open Meeting on her first (and only) British start, when just outbattled by Nicky Henderson’s charge. That form looked fair at the time and can now be viewed in an even more positive light, with the winner having finished second to McFabulous in the Reelkeel Hurdle whilst also winning off 152 and then finishing third in the Rendlesham.

She went to the Pertemps Qualifier at Leopardstown over Christmas, and having always taken front rank, she travelled powerfully and hit the front turning in, only to tire – presumably as the rest of following a strong pace too closely, whilst Dandy Mag, The Bosses Oscar and Unexpected Depth all passed her late on. Still going well when falling at the Dublin Racing Festival, she could relish this better ground and if held up, could have a major part to play off just 134 with The Bosses Oscar (albeit with Jordan Gainford taking off 7lbs) and Dandy Mag off far higher marks here, and she looks a fascinating contender.

Of those at the top end, The Bosses Oscar, Imperial Alcazar and Champagne Platinum are all seriously respected along with Brinkley in what looks a renewal absolutely filled with potential chances.

2.30 – Ryanair Chase (2m5f)

One of the most competitive races of the week, with a good seven or eight who you could make extremely solid cases for and a couple of outsiders who shouldn’t be glossed over. Willie Mullins has the leading pair in the shape of Allaho and Min, which seems a fair place to start our race breakdown.

Allaho went too hard too early in the RSA along with Minella Indo when the pair were caught late by Champ on much more testing ground last year. He’s been disappointing on two occasions this season but was smooth when beating Elimay, a leading contender for the Mares Chase on Friday, with plenty in hand in the Horse and Jockey Hotel Chase at Thurles, and if he repeats or builds on that form then he’ll go very close. A tongue-tie is applied and he has the services of Rachel Blackmore – the worry may be how he’ll go on ground this fast – he’s been beaten the last two times on yielding ground.

Min was an incredibly game winner of this last year when Saint Calvados ran him to a neck, and then he gamely beat stablemate Tornado Flyer for a third success in the John Durkan and seventh Grade 1 win. He was then sent to the Dublin Racing Festival, when he made a bad mistake five out and was then pulled up, that’s the big question mark over him here, although some might throw age into the equation.

Imperial Aura, a very impressive winner of the Novices’ Handicap Chase last year, was imperial on his reappearance in the Colin Parker and then in the Amlin 1965 Chase before making a rare mistake an unseating David Bass at Kempton in January. A horse who looks to be getting better with every run, his five-length defeat of Itchy Feet compares very well to the best British form and he’s arguably the most progressive horse in the field.

Melon (cheekpieces refitted today) has finished fourth at four festivals and rarely ever runs a bad race. A nose behind Samcro in the Marsh last year, he was well beaten in the John Durkan but a fine third in the Savils Chase when apparently sulking after being held up. Rolling from the front again, he’ll take some passing, although he may receive a lot of pressure up front.

Samcro nosed him out in the Marsh Chase, needed his reappearance and then failed to fire in the Savils at Leopardstown – at his best he’s also a player and he’s 2-2 at the Cheltenham Festival to boot, although he probably needs another career best.

Fakir D’oudaries was a well beaten but very creditable second in the Dublin Chase, when he moved up into things early, led for a moment after the third last, and then stayed on well to finish a fair second. That suggested that a step back up to 2m4f (sole run at this trip saw him win the Drinmore when gifted that race by fall of Samcro) could well suit, and better ground ought to be a help too for him.

Mister Fisher was fourth in the Marsh last year when the ground was arguably too soft for him, as was certainly the case in the Paddy Power Gold Cup. The ground rode a lot better in the rescheduled Peterborough Chase here and now he gets a surface with good in it for the first time since taking the Lightning Novices’ Chase. That, and a good gallop, are two big factors in his favour and he’s got to be taken more seriously in light of that.

Dashel Drasher has won three valuable chases at Ascot, culminating in a gutsy win in the Ascot Chase when he outbattled Master Tommytucker; Coming here, he deserves respect and is a big player on ratings, but one wonders if he’d want more rain and this is surely a tougher task.

Chris’s Dream has some fine form in patches, including when edged out by The Storyteller in the Down Royal Champion Chase, but his form figures in Grade 1 races read 95P025, Toronado Flyer is held by plenty of these, so is Kalashnikov, and Fanion D’Estruval disappointed at Newbury.

In a belting contest, the suggestions against the field are Min and Fakir D’Oudairies.

3.05 – Stayers’ Hurdle

A really hotly contested renewal with cases that can be made for at least ten horses. Ante-post followers will have a fine position on Paisley Park, the Champion of 2 years ago who had two terrific duels with the now sadly absent Thyme Hill this year. That unfortunate absence leaves him as the horse to beat assuming that there’s a decent pace (and there’s little reason to suggest that there shouldn’t be here). A fibrillating heart was behind his poor run last year, but he looks ready to make a bold bid to regain his crown.

The Irish challenge has been sweeping all before it, and their key contenders look to be Flooirng Porter, Sire Du Berlais, and The Storyteller. Flooring Porter is a horse transformed this year, routing his rivals in a Grade B handicap and then slipping clear in the Leopardstown Christmas Hurdle at Christmas. He was given a great ride that day and will surely face more pace pressure here, but he’s clearly improving a great deal and is worthy of the utmost respect.

This test will suit Sire Du Berlais and The Storyteller, who were closing rapidly at the end of that three-mile Grade 1, and Sire du Berlais is weighted to come out on top according to the Pertemps form although The Storyteller made much more rapid late headway there. The stronger the pace the better for the both of them, and the ground ought to be fine for the pairing too.

Fury Road was beaten just a neck by Monkfish and Latest Exhibition, and after running below form in the Leopardstown Christmas Hurdle, he was collared for speed by Beacon Edge (also runs here) despite setting a slow pace in front in the Boyne Hurdle, a run which confirmed that he needs a staying test, which he should get here. Maybe better ground will also help him like it may do some others from Ireland, and on last year’s Festival form he’s got every chance.

Vinndication would have a serious chance on his best chasing form, having finished second to an on form Cryname in the Charlie Hall after finishing fourth in the Ultima last year off 159 – if he takes to hurdling as other contenders to make the switch. Lisnagar Oscar won this last year when relishing the really strongly run race, and ran a perfectly fair comeback race in the West Yorkshire Hurdle before disappointing at Newbury in the Long Distance Hurdle, after which he had a wind op.

That saw him run a fine race in the Rendlsham Hurdle, snapping at the heels of Third Wind (Main Fact behind) there and maybe being unlucky not to win. He should step forward from that, and can’t be underestimated – a winner on good ground previously, he will be a popular each/way shot for many and will surely peak again.

At their best, Lil Rockefeller, Sam Spinner, Reserve Tank and Younevercall can be given chances although they need to bounce back to their best; Barcardys is a hardy and admirable horse who may be a step short at this level whilst If The Cap Fits has each/way possibilities in reapplied cheekpieces (in which he’s shown his best form) and a first-time tongue-tie.

In a ferociously contested race, a win only wager on Lisnagar Oscar is chosen to supplement the ante-post position on Paisley Park.

3.40 – Paddy Power Plate Handicap Chase (2m5f)

The first handicap chase to be run on the New Course of the week. Expect a helter skelter pace with lots of competition for the lead, and a fast finisher or two to boot.

A Wave Of The Sea, who ground out the Matheston Handicap Chase at the Dublin Racing Festival (The Shunter third) is a winner of his only start over 2m4f, handles all ground, and could find that improvement for a step up in trip here is enough to cover a rise in his UK mark here compared to his Irish one.

The Shunter and Farclas ought to be closely involved whilst Cribean Boy will be much happier with this trip compared to 2 miles at Sandown, but Mister Whitaker could be the one. Only three starts ago, he was third in this race last year off a 2lbs higher mark and in two runs since he’s plainly needed the outing in the Charlie Hall and then he found Warwick too sharp for him in February. This test ought to suit much more and there’s no worries about him on good ground.

4.15 – Mares’ Novices Hurdle (2m)

Again, extremely hotly contested, and even harder to read in the complete absence of form on anything like decent ground.

Royal Kahala is the key form horse and her defeat of Hook Up at Fairyhouse looks even better given Hook’s Up’s subsequent exploits (more later on that) and whilst Roseys Hollow got the better of Royal Kahala when the two fought right to the line at Fairyhouse but she’s now 9lbs worse off – on that form they also hold Gauloise too.

Royal Kahala holds Hook Up on that form, but that Fairyhouse race became a sprint on a tight track here, and this is certain not to be the case – Hook Up was then a running on fourth in the Chanelle Pharma Novice Hurdle behind none other than Appreciate It, Ballyadam and Blue Lord afterwards, suggesting a tougher test of stamina will suit her, and Willie Mullins said yesterday that “The drying ground will benefit Hook Up more than any of our horses this week.” If she’s going to turn around that form, these are the conditions in which to do it and

Telmesomethingrirl’s very creditable third of 20 in a valuable Leopardstown handicap at the Dublin Racing Festival (2m2f, soft to heavy) last month has been boosted hugely and she ought not to be far away whilst Glens Of Antrim has caught three high class horses on her three runs so far.

Presumably weak and lacking conditions when eighteen lengths third behind Blue Lord on debut, she was outstayed by Stattler at Christmas and then ran into Mr Incredible (second to Gaillard Du Mesnil on previous start) and if a well-run 2 miles suits her then maybe she can take the leap forward needed to take her first win in graded company.

An outsider here worth keeping an eye on is Perfect Myth, who has run some notable races with good times when the surface has been decent, as it will be today.

4.50 – Kim Muir (3m2f)

A flyer is taken on Sizing At Midnight, who was going best in the Badger Ales at Wincanton when falling three out. Absent since, he hated the ground on his return pulled up (stable also out of form then) but that run should have blown the cobwebs away and off the same mark that he ran off in November, he could make 28/1 look very big if getting into the same rhythm that he did then.

From the top of the market, one last chance is taken on Musical Slave to sort out his jumping – if he does, he’s well handicapped off 135.

RECOMMENDED BETS (scale of 1-100 points)
BACK Mrs Milner 1 pt each/way in Pertemps Handicap Hurdle Final (1.55 Cheltenham) at 12/1
(Latest Star Price  ? Click to BET NOW)

BACK Fakir D’Oudaries 1 pt win in Ryanair Chase (2.30 Cheltenham) at 13/2
(Latest Star Price  ? Click to BET NOW)

BACK Min 1 pt win in Ryanair Chase (2.30 Cheltenham) at 9/2
(Latest Star Price  ? Click to BET NOW)

BACK Lisnagar Oscar 1 pt win in Stayers’ Hurdle (3.05 Cheltenham) at 9/1
(Latest Star Price  ? Click to BET NOW)

BACK A Wave Of The Sea 1 pt win in Paddy Power Plate (3.40 Cheltenham) at 15/2
(Latest Star Price  ? Click to BET NOW)

BACK Mister Whitaker 1 pt each/way in Paddy Power Plate (3.40 Cheltenham) at 14/1
(Latest Star Price  ? Click to BET NOW)

BACK Hook Up 1 pt win in Mares’ Novices Hurdle (4.15 Cheltenham) at 5/1 with starsports.bet
(Latest Star Price  ? Click to BET NOW)

BACK Glens Of Antrim 1 pt win in Mares’ Novices Hurdle (4.15 Cheltenham) at 11/2
(Latest Star Price  ? Click to BET NOW)

BACK Sizing At Midnight 1 pt each/way in Kim Muir (4.50 Cheltenham) at 25/1
(Latest Star Price  ? Click to BET NOW)

BACK Musical Slave 1 pt each/way in Kim Muir (4.50 Cheltenham) at 11/1
(Latest Star Price  ? Click to BET NOW)


PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 1 2017: PROFIT 35.99 points
(Excluding ante-post recommendations CLICK HERE)


STAR PROMOTIONS




SHARE VIA