STAR PREVIEW: Florida Derby Card

The Curlin Florida Derby
Live on Sky Sports Racing HD at 10.36pm UK time
First American Race: Allowance Race @ Gulfstream Park Florida (off time 3.30pm)

---

Racing fans are treated to a bumper Saturday of top class action this evening as the Curlin Florida Derby (off at 10:36pm) headlines a 14 race card which is packed with graded events. The main event of the evening has a number of proven horses with yet more still to come, and the winner could well be staring many in the face in the shape of Tiz The Law. A winner of three of his four starts so far, Tiz The Law’s only defeat came in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes when he struggled to open a gap until the last furlong and then didn’t have his usual finishing kick on a sloppy track.

Beforehand, he’d been an impressive winner of the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes at Belmont Park, and he made a fine return in the Holy Bull here when giving 4lbs and a comprehensive three length beating to Ete Indien, having broken to the lead before sitting back in fourth place. Ete Indien, who also runs here, followed that second with a wide margin win in the Grade 2 Fasig Tipton Fountain Of Youth Stakes here, beating Candy Tycoon (also runs) by eight and a half lengths with As Seen On TV just behind in third, and that is by far the strongest three year old form in the field.

Tiz The Law is reasonably well drawn (7) in comparison to Ete Indien (12), and can confirm the form as the market expects. Independence Hall made a big impression when winning his maiden at Parx by nearly five lengths before then romping home in the Nashua Stakes by 12 and a half lengths. On his return in the Grade 3 Sam F Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs, he tracked strong fractions of 23.34 & :46.52 for the 1/4 and 1/2 mile, leaving himself vulnerable to the late run of Sole Volante (Ajaaweed third, beaten fourteen lengths). The way he was caught there would provide worry over this extra furlong.

Gouverneur Morris, a wide margin winner at Saratoga on his debut, was sent off 6/4 for the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity and travelled like the winner up until the home turn, when passed and left in the dust by Mafdield. He made a satisfactory return at Tampa Bay Downs in a small race and is tremendously unexposed, although one might want to see him ridden conservatively from stall 5 here (was five wide at Keenland).

Of the others, Disk Jockey is a promising colt who could find this too much too soon, comments that also could well apply to Soros, and Candy Tycoon, Sassy But Smart and Shivaree haven’t shown the performance levels or potential to make them appeal, even at a hefty price (My First Grammy).

Just before the Derby, the Appleton Stakes (10:00) takes place on the turf and a chance is taken on El Torementa being fit enough to run close to his best. Gail Cox’s six-year-old sprung a surprise when taking the Woodbine Mile last September before finishing a fair sixth in the Breeders’’ Cup Mile. Both those efforts give him a big chance in this field and it’s interesting to note that he hadn’t run over a mile before his Woodbine win. Stall 12 is a big hindrance, but he could be good enough to overcome this.

It would be a shock if The Kitten’s Joy Pan American Stakes (9.26) went to any other contender but Zulu Alpha, who followed up his surprise fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Turf with a victory in the Pegasus Turf World Cup, and he also added the Mac Dimarda Stakes in good style. He should be far too good for this field, although Bemma’s Boy, second in the John B Connally Turf Cup Stakes, could be the each/way value.

The Fasig-Tipton Gulfstream Park Oaks (8:49) sees the country’s most promising classic fillies take each-other on and Tonalist’s Shape can justify favouritism. She had to work realy hard to get the better of wide margin maiden winner Spice Is Nice in the Davona Dale Stakes here over a mile, but did well to win a sustained duel with Todd Pletcher’s charge giving 4lbs. She finished her race very well off fractions of 23.84 and 46.93 for the 1/4 and 1/2 mile here and can follow up on these better terms, although Lucrezia, Lake Avenue and Swiss Skydiver are all feared.

Don’t forget to tune in for the Orchid Stakes Presented By Rood And Riddle (8:17), the Sand Springs Stakes (7:34) and the Sir Schackleton Stakes (7.00) for graded action to boot.

RECOMMENDED BETS (scale of 1-100 points)
BACK Tonalist’s Shape 1 pt win in 8:49 Gulfstream Park at 2/1 with
BACK El Tormenta 1 pt win in 10:00 Gulfstream Park at 9/2 with
BACK Tiz The Law 2 pts win in 10:36 Gulfstream Park at 11/10 with

---

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 1 2017: PROFIT 176.38 points
(Excluding Premier League ante-post, Six Nations Outright, Six Nations Specials, Labour Leadership Contest, Cameron Brown Football Bets, New Hampshire Primary)