STAR PREVIEW Fri: Man City v Real Madrid

We may be shorn of Euro 2020 but we can still enjoy a feast of top class football with the Champions League finishing and tonight we’re treated to a pair of fascinating second legs in the last 16.

Glory on the European stage is all that Pep Guardiola has left to achieve at Manchester City and they go into the second leg against Real Madrid in the driving seat thanks to a 2-1 victory at The Bernabeu when they were entirely deserving of that win (when the 2-1 score possibly flattered them, as they won 3.14 – 1.14 on Infogol’s xG ratings).

However, so much has changed since then and and we cannot consider this done for the by any means, as Madrid come into this game a different side. Zinedine Zidane has produced a fine spell of football from his team, with 31 points from their final 11 games winning La Liga for the first time since 2017.

This success came without Gareth Bale (a story you’re familiar with now) and also Eden Hazard (struggling to find full fitness) but the superb Karim Benezema (21 goals in La Liga this season, four in the Champions League) will be a handful for City and we have seen enough from Vincius Junior and Rodrygo for Los Blancos fans not to worry too much about the coming season whether they progress or not.

The most notable part of Madrid’s improvement has been their defensive capability – in conceding just 25 league goals they achieved the best defensive record in the division for the first time since 2007-08, beating even Atletico Madrid to that honour – and both superstar centreback Raphael Varane and goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois approach this tie in fine form.

Their ability, along with that of Casemiro, to anchor a compact 4-3-3 will give City problems, but thanks to the first leg defeat they will have to chase this game at some point and that is when City will be at their most dangerous, as they were in the first leg.

Man City v Real Madrid
UEFA Champions League Round of 16 2nd Leg
20:00 BT Sport 1 / BT Sport Extra 1 / BT Sport Ultimate HD

HEAD TO HEAD RECORD
(Maximum 10 matches, since 2010)
MAR 2020 CHAMPIONS LEAGUE Real Madrid 1-2 Manchester City
MAY 2016 CHAMPIONS LEAGUE Real Madrid 1-0 Manchester City
APR 2016 CHAMPIONS LEAGUE Manchester City 0-0 Real Madrid
NOV 2012 CHAMPIONS LEAGUE Manchester City 1-1 Real Madrid
SEP 2012 CHAMPIONS LEAGUE Real Madrid 3-2 Manchester City

Pep Guardiola’s side have been mainly superb since the restart, winning eight of ten fixtures in all competitions and finishing top of the Premier League’s lockdown table (played one game more than most, but still took 24 points from 10 games) with Kevin De Byrune once again making his claims to be the best creative midfielder in the world, whilst David Silva is ending his time at City on a tremendous high.

In Raheem Sterling, Riyad Mahrez and Gabriel Jesus the hosts have three of the most prolific scorers in Europe and they will relish the chance to counter Madrid when they go seeking and equalising goal.

That – and the underlying numbers – goes some way to explaining why City are 8/13 to win tonight in 90 minutes with Starsports.bet, but odds on backers should beware; This Madrid side contains the core of the team that won at Napoli (3-1) and Bayern Munich (2-1) in the 2017 knockouts before then beating Paris St-Germain (2-1), Juventus (3-0) and Bayern Munich (2-1) all in the same stage next year.

City’s vulnerabilities – even if rarely seen – still remain, with a huge reliance upon Aymeric Laporte at centre-back. Thankfully for Pep Guardiola he is fit, but Fernandinho will be relentlessly targeted and so too will Benjamin Mendy, with Eden Hazard and Vinicius Junior sure to try their luck at making the gaps.

We also saw two gameplans work against City post lockdown – a high octane pressing approach from Chelsea at Stamford Bridge, and also a very clever deep lying performance from Arsenal – and we can be sure that Zinedine Zidane will have watched those performances closely.

However, at some point his side will have to take the risks going forward – and all this without the suspended Sergio Ramos – and City have the attacking quality to make that count. It would be no surprise if a clean sheet eluded them – it has been the case in four of their last five Champions League games – but they are marginally preferred with 2-1 and 1-1 both looking value correct scores.

There should be plenty of drama in Turin tonight, as Juventus have a big task on their hand in attempting to turn over Lyon, who led 1-0 from the first leg. Lyon’s defensive solidity had Juventus outfoxed in the first leg, as they sat deep and forced a side which perhaps isn’t yet in sync with Maurizio Sarri into a number of sideways passing and shooting from outside the box – of the 14 shots they took in the first leg, eight came from outside the box – and the same could well happen here.

Juventus didn’t finish the season strongly – they won just two of their last eight games – and whilst there’s the caveat of two defeats coming after they’d won the title, they weren’t hugely convincing going forward outside of the Crisitano Ronaldo. He scored 31 Serie A goals but outside of Paulo Dybala (11 league goals) he hasn’t had much support and Juventus could be in trouble if he’s not recovered from a thigh strain to start tonight.

Lyon have a significant disadvantage in terms of match preparedness but they made PSG work every step of the way in their League Cup final defeat – when goalkeeper Anthony Lopez was excellent and the back three of Fernando Marçal, Marcelo and Jason Denayer looked rock solid with Bruno Guimarães infront of them – and they should improve for that whilst the lack of a roaring home support should be a big help to them too.

Rudi Garcia’s in the tactical driving seat, with Houssem Aouar, Memphis Depay and Moussa Dembele set to counter against a and make no mistake, Juventus will need to up their game to make it through – 8/15 about the hosts doesn’t appeal, but the 10/11 on Lyon with a one goal start on the Asian H’Cap sounds much better.

RECOMMENDED BETS (scale of 1-100 points)
BACK Manchester City 2-1 Real Madrid 1 pt at 7/1 with
BACK Manchester City 1-1 Real Madrid 1 pt at 17/2 with
BACK Lyon +1 on Asian H’Cap 2 pts at 10/11 with

---

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 1 2017: PROFIT 209.37 points
(Excluding Cheltenham 2021 antepost, Six Nations Outright, Six Nations Specials, Cricket 1st Test ENG v PAK)

STAR PROMOTIONS