STAR PREVIEW: General Election Turnout
63 is the magic number
Of all the specials markets on the General Election (and there are numerous) the voter turnout percentage always draws me in.
It’s a market which builds in so many factors other than simply politics – not least of which, of course, the Great British Weather !
The trend is on the rise again from hitting a low of 59.4% in 2001 when Tony Blair won in a landslide majority of 167. One important lesson here is that a perceived one-horse race impacts voter turnout negatively.
The longer term trend though is decline – 83.9% of the nation voted in 1950.
Graph from: www.ukpolitical.info
I thought, like a lot of people, this would be the same logic year. A nation already fatigued out with the BREXIT Referendum and facing a seemingly inevitable conclusion when Theresa May called her snap election on the 18th April.
It hasn’t quite been Mayhem in the campaigning since but there has at least been life breathed into a race which no longer looks, quite, so lop-sided.
May is still a red-hot favourite but ‘no overall majority’ is only around a 4/1 chance and that might just inspire a few more voters out in the belief that their vote may well really count.
And then there’s the weather. The latest is that there will be a rain belt pushing north throughout the day.
We’re not going to get rich at 4/9 (Star Sports are top price) but 63% or over for the third General Election running might be the safest bet. As safe as the weather that is.
RECOMMENDED BETS (scale of 1-100 points)
BACK 63% AND OVER 50 points at around 4/9 with Star Sports
PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 1 2017: -78.07 points