STAR PREVIEW: Leicester City v Arsenal

Arsenal’s away day woes continued in Europe when a late goal for Vitoria Guimares gave Unai Emery yet more headaches and his situation could worsen after today’s trip to Leicester.

When this game was played last season you could get roughly the same price with Star for either side before Leicester won 3-0 and the two sides have only gone in opposite directions since in the eyes of most observers. Leicester start this game evens to finish in the top four with Star Sports whilst Arsenal are 2/1 shots, and much of that comes down to away form.

Arsenal have won only four of their last 18 Premier League away games, and they are without a win on the road in the league since the opening weekend, when they edged past Newcastle 1-0. There have been worries about the general standard of play as well – they didn’t have a shot on target against Wolves after 32nd minute last week in a 1-1 draw, despite Mesut Ozil being given a start and Alexandre Lacazette starting upfront amongst Pierre-Emerick Aubmeyang.

Wolves are a good side on the road against top six teams but the amount of pressure they put on Arsenal in the second half must have worried the Gunners. Wolves had 25 shots to Arsenal’s ten and that has been a trend through the season – only promoted duo Aston Villa (19.4) and Norwich City (17.8) have conceded more shots per game than the Gunners (16.2) this season.

That spells trouble against a Leicester side that have found what seems like the perfect fit in Brendan Rogers. Jamie Vardy’s red-hot start to the Premier League season – he leads the charts with ten goals – has been a product of James Maddison and Youri Telemans midfield brilliance, but Leicester have seen Ben Chilwell, Caglar Soyuncu, Wilfred Ndidi, and Harvey Barnes all step up to the plate this season.

It’s easy to understand why the hosts are favourites – since Brendan Rogers joined, Arsenal are nine points worse off, have scored 17 goals fewer and conceded nearly twice as many as Leicester with 28 over the same time period – although a price of evens isn’t the most exciting bet possible for a home win.

Leicester City v Arsenal
Premier League
17:30 Sky Sports Premier League / Sky Sports Main Event / Sky Sports Ultra HD

(Maximum 10 matches, since 2000)
APR 2019 PREMIER LEAGUE Leicester 3-0 Arsenal
OCT 2018 PREMIER LEAGUE Arsenal 3-1 Leicester
MAY 2018 PREMIER LEAGUE Leicester 3-1 Arsenal
AUG 2017 PREMIER LEAGUE Arsenal 4-3 Leicester
APR 2017 PREMIER LEAGUE Arsenal 1-0 Leicester
AUG 2016 PREMIER LEAGUE Leicester 0-0 Arsenal
FEB 2016 PREMIER LEAGUE Arsenal 2-1 Leicester
SEP 2015 PREMIER LEAGUE Leicester 2-5 Arsenal
FEB 2015 PREMIER LEAGUE Arsenal 2-1 Leicester
AUG 2014 PREMIER LEAGUE Leicester 1-1 Arsenal

Leicester have scored 46 goals since Brendan Rogers’ joined – an overage of around 2 a game – and Arsenal haven’t kept a clean sheet since their 2-0 victory over Bournemouth at the Emirates back in October. However, the Gunners do have plenty of firepower and had it not been for Nicolas Pepe missing one of the easiest chances you’ll ever see at Sheffield United then they would have scored in every game this season.

Leicester have conceded against all of the Top 6 teams this season and it could be worth backing Arsenal to drop points – either through defeat or a draw – in a game where both sides find the net.

RECOMMENDED BETS (scale of 1-100 points)
BACK Leicester 2-1 Arsenal 1 pt at 15/2 with
BACK Leicester 1-1 Arsenal 1 pt at 7/1 with

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 1 2017: PROFIT 222.89 points
(excluding Political Bets posted 8 August, Premier League ante-post, Cameron Brown football bets)