STAR PREVIEW: Rocket Mortgage Classic with BLUE HORSESHOE

The PGA tour comes to the motor city, Detroit Golf club, Michigan, for week four of the Covid roadshow. We have a bit of an issue with lack of past course form here, as only one PGA tournament has been played at this venue. It was last year where the bolter in the pack, Nate Lashley, came through Monday qualifying and started at as much as 1000/1 to win the tournament. Detroit Golf club is another short, tight track with long rough and plenty of trees waiting to gobble up errant drives. Once again, we are also looking at small, undulating greens.

They are the tricky Poa Annua variety this time, so second ball striking and putting is at a premium.

You could say Webb Simpson is a good shout for another win here and you’d be right. The course does indeed suit his particular game very well. But I’m not here for 11/1 odds. I’m here for value. So, I’ve gone wide on a bit of a value hunt this week, really wide in some cases. But hey, last years winner was a 1000-1 shot, so you could say this course has a history of long odds winners.

Blue Horseshoe Loves

Seung Yul Noh currently at 160/1 with

The man with the name of my future racehorse played extremely well last week to finish inside the top ten. Noh, has come back from his compulsory military duty in his native South Korea and has shown no ill effects from his enforced layoff. Before he left, he was there or there abouts in a number of tournaments and it looks as though his smooth swing and accuracy based game has only improved if last week’s performance was anything to go by. I think he’s very good each way value.

Doc Redmond currently at 40/1 with

Redmond finished in sole second at this venue last year on nineteen under par. He put up an excellent performance last week at the Travelers to finish tied for eleventh. Tight technical tracks are clearly his preferred type of layout. He will be high in confidence from his good showing last week and his second place here last year.

Patrick Reed currently 15/1 with

I hate his odds this week, but I can’t leave Reed alone in the weakest field we’ve seen since the post lockdown season began. He started poorly but finished strong last week with a final round sixty four to end up in a tie for twenty fourth. Reed finished in a tie for fifth in this event last year and if he can keep it straight, his iron and putting game should have him right in contention again come Sunday.

Brendon Todd currently 60/1 with

Make no mistake, Todd’s final round in the shadow of Dustin Johnson, last week the Travelers was a horror show. But he stood toe to toe with DJ, till the back nine. It was only on the twelfth hole that the wheels came off. Prior to that Todd had dismantled the course with a precision driving clinic in which he did not miss a fairway for the first three rounds! I think at a similar venue with the same sort of demands on driving accuracy, Brendon Todd, who is ranked third on the tour for driving accuracy and first in scrambling, could get right back on the horse and be firmly in the mix again. Remember he has won twice already, early this season in November, so he has no pressure to keep his card or anything like that. You don’t win twice in the same month on the PGA Tour without a serious bit of class about your game.

Tim Wilkinson currently 400/1 with

This is an each-way value play for the places. Tim Wilkinson is a solid, if not spectacular player. His lack of length off the tee’s means he’s never going to be able to compete on the longer layout’s, but this course, which rewards on accurate driving and iron game will play into his hands. Wilkinson ranks tenth on the tour in driving accuracy and top fifty in scrambling could be a nice little value play for a small amount each way.

RECOMMENDED BETS (scale of 1-100 points)
BACK Seung Yul Noh 1 pt each way at 160/1 with
BACK Doc Raymond 1 pt each way at 40/1 with
BACK Patrick Reed 2 pt each way at 15/1 with
BACK Brendon Todd 1 pt each way at 60/1 with
BACK Tim Wilkinson 0.5 pt each way at 400/1 with

ew 7 places 1/5 odds

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 1 2017: PROFIT 266.25 points
(Excluding Cheltenham 2021 antepost, Premier League ante-post, Six Nations Outright, Six Nations Specials, Cameron Brown Football Bets, Derby bet)