STAR PREVIEW Sat: Champions League Final

This season’s Champions League has been one of the most action packed in recent memory. We’ve had a competition worthy of the return of crowds, sparkling performances from Europe’s best and brightest, comebacks that would defy belief even by the standards of modern football, and an average of over three goals

It is arguably fitting, then, that we have a final with European royalty as Real Madrid face Liverpool, with Madrid looking for their 14th Champions League title and Liverpool looking for their seventh in a rematch of the 2017-18 final. Whoever wins, this will cap off a fine season for both sides, with Madrid bidding for history whilst Liverpool could win a third trophy of the season.

Liverpool v Real Madrid
2022 UEFA Champions League Final
Stade de France, Paris
Kick Off: 20:00
BT Sport 1 HD / BT Sport Ultimate / BT Sport YouTube

HEAD-TO-HEAD RECORD
APR 2021 CHAMPIONS LEAGUE Liverpool 0-0 Real Madrid
APR 2021 CHAMPIONS LEAGUE Real Madrid 3-1 Liverpool
MAY 2018 CHAMPIONS LEAGUE FINAL Real Madrid 3-1 Liverpool
NOV 2014 CHAMPIONS LEAGUE Real Madrid 1-0 Liverpool
OCT 2014 CHAMPIONS LEAGUE Liverpool 0-3 Real Madrid
MAR 2009 CHAMPIONS LEAGUE Liverpool 4-0 Real Madrid
FEB 2009 CHAMPIONS LEAGUE Real Madrid 0-1 Liverpool
MAY 1981 EUROPEAN CUP FINAL Liverpool 0-1 Real Madrid

Past Champions League Final Winners
2010-11: Barcelona 2-0 Manchester United
2011-12: Chelsea 1-1 Bayern Munich (1-1 AET, Chelsea won 4-3 on penalties)
2012-13: Bayern Munich 2-1 Borussia Dortmund
2013-14: Real Madrid 4-1 Atlético Madrid (1-1 at FT, 4-1 AET)
2014-15: Barcelona 3-1 Juventus
2015-16: Real Madrid 1-1 Atlético Madrid (Real Madrid won 5-1 on penalties)
2016-17: Real Madrid 4-1 Juventus
2017-18: Real Madrid 3-1 Liverpool
2018-19: Liverpool 2-0 Tottenham Hotspur
2019-20: Bayern Munich 1-0 PSG
2020-21: Manchester City 0-1 Chelsea

Previous Champions League Final POTM winners
2021: N’Golo Kante (Chelsea)
2020: Kingsley Coman (Bayern)
2019 : Virgil van Dijk (Liverpool)
2018 : Gareth Bale (Real Madrid)
2017 : Cristiano Ronaldo (Real Madrid)
2016 : Sergio Ramos (Real Madrid)
2015 : Andrés Iniesta (Barcelona)
2014 : Ángel Di María (Real Madrid)
2013 : Arjen Robben (Bayern München)
2012 : Didier Drogba (Chelsea)
2011 : Lionel Messi (Barcelona)

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🇪🇸 Real Madrid 🇪🇸

 
Route To The Final

Group Stage: Won Group D (Real Madrid 16 points, Inter Milan 10, Sheriff Tiraspol 7, Shakhtar Donetsk 2)

Last 16: Beat PSG 3-2 on aggregate (lost away leg 1-0 and won home leg 3-1)

Quarter-finals: Beat Chelsea 5-4 on aggregate (won away leg 3-1, lost home leg 3-1, and won tie in extra time)

Semi-finals: Beat Manchester City 6-5 on aggregate (lost away leg 4-3, won home leg 2-1, and won tie in extra time)

What more can be said about Real’s amazing run to the Champions League final? A campaign that started with a 1-0 win at Inter saw them lose their first home game of the competition to Sheriff Tiraspol, but a run of four straight wins – including a double over runners up Inter – saw them head into the last 16 as group winners.

The classic moments in their run began early, with Madrid facing elimination after two Kylian Mbappe goals – one to win the first leg in the 94th minute, and the second to send PSG 1-0 up at the Bernabeu – before Karim Benzema scored a hat-trick, including a pair of two in two minutes, to turn the tie on its head.

Benzema was the star again with two first half goals in the first leg of the quarter-final at Chelsea, and he completed his hat-trick when puncing on an Edouard Mendy error to give Madrid a two-goal lead heading back to the Bernabeu.

Thomas Tuchel’s side delivered one of their best performances of the season to go ahead in the tie, before Rodrygo scored a late goal in the 80th minute and who else – Benzema – scored the goal in extra time that would take them to a semi-final with Manchester City.

The first leg against City was one of the games of the season. City led 2-0, 3-1 and 4-2 on the night but Madrid were razor sharp on the counter and managed to leave with just a one goal deficit.

The second leg was tense but didn’t have the sheer drama and entertainment, and when Riyad Mahrez fired City ahead it looked over at 5-3. This Madrid side don’t know the meaning of the word though, and Rodrygo (who else?) came off the bench to score twice in the space of a minute and send the semi-final into extra-time.

Then there was a penalty awarded, Karim Benzema slotted home, and Madrid were into the final!

The Case For:

Real Madrid will not be beaten. Having appeared down and out against PSG, Chelsea, and especially Manchester City, Carlo Ancelotti’s side have found a way out every time and Liverpool won’t have their hands on the trophy until the final whistle is blown.

Their perpetration for this has been almost perfect; A 35th La Liga title was sealed almost a month ago, allowing for plenty of rest whilst Liverpool went toe to toe with Manchester City in a gruelling title race.

Madrid are full of pace upfront and out wide, with the energy and dynamism of Karim Benzema, Vinícius Jr., and Federico Valverde complimenting the experience of Luka Modrić, Toni Kroos and Casemiro in midfield.

Facing Liverpool’s press is always a daunting prospect, but Madrid should be suited by the likely pattern of play, with Liverpool’s adventurous play likely to leave gaps that can be exploited on the counter attack; a similar strategy has worked for them against PSG, Chelsea and Manchester City.

Madrid’s use of the flanks has been integral to their progress through the tournament, and defensively Liverpool full-backs Trent Alexander-Arnold and Andy Robertson can be exposed. Alexander-Arnold in particular has struggled at times defensively this season and Vinícius Jr can pose a big threat to him.

Madrid aren’t seen as likely to dominate possession but they could have the advantage in midfield if one or both of Thiago and Fabinho are missing, which would be a potential gamechanger.

Liverpool have defended brilliantly in the Premier League but this has been a high scoring Champions League season and Carlo Ancelotti won’t mind a shootout; It should encourage him that Benfica and Villarreal have scored six goals combined against the Reds in the quarter and semi-finals.

The Case Against:

For all Madrid have pulled off some extraordinary comebacks, it’s easy to argue that they’ve had a great deal of luck in reaching the final.

They were outplayed for large parts of their knockout ties against PSG, Chelsea and Manchester City, and took advantage of hugely generous errors from PSG and Chelsea; Over two legs, City won the xG count 5.11 – 4.31, Chelsea won the xG count 4.7 – 2.14, and PSG shaded it 2.73 to 2.25.

A one-off game will be a different matter, but if Liverpool are able to create so many chances then Los Blancos will surely be vulnerable.

There are also defensive worries for Real which might be even worse than those for Liverpool. Eder Militao and David Alaba are a settled centre-back pairing, but they were taken apart by Manchester City in the first leg and out wide they’re arguably even weaker, as Ferland Mendy has been a constant liability defensively too.

They have conceded 11 goals in the Champions League knock-out stages, a number which should be higher according to data, and Thibaut Courtois – who has been mostly brilliant in goal – will be highly tested this evening.

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🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Liverpool 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿

 
Route To The Final:

Group Stage: Won Group C (Liverpool 18 points, Atletico Madrid 7, Porto 5, Milan 4)

Last 16: Beat Inter 2-1 on aggregate (won away leg 2-0, lost home leg 1-0)

Quarter-finals: Beat Benfica 6-4 on aggregate (won away leg 3-1, drew 3-3 at home)

Semi-finals: Beat Villarreal 5-2 on aggregate (won home leg 2-0, won away leg 3-2)

Liverpool started this season amongst the favourites and quickly set about proving why with a flawless performance in Group C, winning all of their games against Atletico Madrid, Porto, and AC Milan.

Thy were on the ropes at times against Inter at the San Siro but kept their heads before Roberto Firmino and Mohamed Salah gave them a precious two goal lead to take back to Anfield. They’d have needed it too, as Lautaro Martinez’s 61st-minute goal gave Inter a chance of overturning the deficit at Anfield, but the hosts held on, helped by Alexis Sanchez’s red card.

Their quarter-final saw them establish another 2 goal lead in the away leg, before a haywire home encounter which ended 3-3 after Benfica came from two goals down.

Liverpool took control of their semi-final with two goals in two minutes – a Pervis Estupinan own goal and another Sadio Mane strike – but a Villarreal comeback in the second leg saw the tie in the balance. However Liverpool weren’t to be denied, and second half changes did the trick as Fabinho, Diaz and Mane scored in 12 minutes to seal their place in the final.

The Case For:

Already two-time trophy winners this season, Jurgen Klopp’s side have been sensational in 2022 and only the might of Manchester City prevented them from a domestic treble.

Klopp’s men have played 34 games in all competitions since the start of the season and lost just once, a second leg defeat against Inter when they were most unlucky not to at least draw. The standard of their domestic form was stunning – Their tally of 92 points would have been good enough to win the title in 24 of the 30 Premier League seasons.

Real Madrid’s combativity has been talked about a huge amount but Liverpool have held their nerve on plenty of occasions this season as well and won 20 points after coming from behind this season in the league, whilst they found a way to restore order after a dire first half in Villarreal.

Their two final wins this season came without a goal being scored in normal or extra time, and penalties will hold no fear for Klopp’s ‘mentality monsters.’

It goes without saying that the personnel available to Klopp rivals that of any coach. Any three of Mo Salah, Sadio Mane, Luis Diaz and Diogo Jota will provide the attacking trio whilst in Trent Alexander-Arnold and Andy Robertson they also have two of the best fullbacks in Europe.

Whilst there’s a worry over two key members of the midfield, Klopp has options there with experience in the shape of Naby Keita and Jordan Henderson, whilst this might be the best defensive unit that’s been seen under Klopp, with Virgil Van Dijk, Ibrahima Konate and Joel Matip giving him three good centre-back options.

The Case Against:

Could Liverpool end up being victims of their own success? At the end of tonight Liverpool will have played every single game this season and it would be impossible for that not to have taken a toll here. They found a way to grind out success against Wolves on the final day of the season at Anfield whilst Madrid, who sealed the La Liga title nearly a month ago, have had plenty of time to rest and focus on this game alone.

Klopp’s team are incredibly hard to handle going forward, but they can be got at defensively, especially when targeting Trent Alexander-Arnold, and Madrid have the pace to put them under extreme pressure down the flanks, as Manchester City found out to their cost.

There’s also a question over their midfield availability. Liverpool are better socked in the middle of the park than they used to be but the absence of Thiago, Fabinho, or both would be a major blow to not only their creative but defensive strategies, and leave them exposed against Madrid’s trio of Luka Modric, Toni Kroos and Casemiro.

Verdict

Given how impressive they’ve been over the whole season – and especially in 2022 alone – it’s no surprise that Liverpool are favourites for victory and to lift a seventh Champions League crown However, a pre match price of evens for 90-minute victory and 4/7 to lift the trophy seem short.

The tolls of chasing all four trophies appeared to be taking their toll on Liverpool at times towards the end of the campaign – whilst Madrid were easing up after sealing La Liga early – and doubts over Thiago and Fabinho must be added into the picture too. Both those factors could put the pair closer than the markets suggest, and whilst Madrid have been outplayed through the tournament, their resilience and counter-attacking ability have made them very dangerous foes and the two sides appear to be evenly matched tactically in key areas.

Liverpool needed penalties to win the EFL and FA Cups despite going off as strong favourites so the evens on them winning in 90 minutes doesn’t appeal at all and 4/5 about the Madrid/Draw double chance, along with 13/5 about the draw, looks to be the best value in the match markets. 7/5 also appears big about Real Madrid lifting the trophy overall.

Specials

Both Liverpool and Madrid excel out wide and this could be a long night for full-backs. Ferland Mendy and Trent Alexander-Arnold look like big prices to receive yellow cards in 90 minutes given the pressure both Jurgen Klopp and Carlo Ancelotti will be putting on either flank.

The player of the match market looks to be an open contest with Star going 9/2 the field. 5/1 feels big about Karim Benzema given the impact that he’s had this season whilst Liverpool’s Sadio Mane has scored eight goals in his last 13 games and appears big at 10/1 on that basis, especially with his fine big game record. Rodrygo is also of interest. The Brazilian forward has found a rich vein of form in the last few weeks and if he was to change the game off the bench then 14/1 could look very big about his chances.

RECOMMENDED BETS – Match
BACK Real Madrid/Draw 3 pts at 5/6 (Latest Star Price ? CLICK TO BET NOW)
BACK Draw 1.5 pts at 13/5 (Latest Star Price ? CLICK TO BET NOW)
BACK Real to win Trophy 2 pts at 29/20 (Latest Star Price ? CLICK TO BET NOW)

RECOMMENDED BETS – Specials
BACK Ferland Mendy to receive a card 1 pt at 23/10 (Latest Star Price ? CLICK TO BET NOW)
BACK Trent Alexander-Arnold to receive a card 1 pt at 15/4 (Latest Star Price ? CLICK TO BET NOW)

RECOMMENDED BETS – Man Of The Match
BACK Karim Benzema 1 pt at 5/1 (Latest Star Price ? CLICK TO BET NOW)
BACK Sadio Mane 1 pt at 10/1 (Latest Star Price ? CLICK TO BET NOW)

WILLIAM KEDJANYI

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