STAR PREVIEW Sat: Newmarket 2000 Guineas Day

Yesterday was a key day in the racing season as we had a deluge of pattern races and some excellent performances. From a punting point of view, the luck didn’t quite go our way, with Summerghand getting only a weak pace to run into before passing most of the field to finish second. It was another case of so close so far with him – and he’s been a regular feature in these previews – but he ran a brilliant race and will be of interest in the Wokingham if he goes again.

There was more frustration with Verboten, who was beaten by the draw despite a huge closing effort down the outside that surely would have seen him get there with another half a furlong. The Britannia at Royal Ascot would look ideal for him.

Elsewhere, we were treated to a fantastic Coronation Cup as Ghaiyyath, who was beautifully ridden by William Buick, controlled the start and then dominated the middle of the race (see sectionals) to run out a two and a half-length winner over Anthony Van Dyck. It was a seventh win in ten starts and a second Group 1 for the Godolphin colt, and his future races are tremendously exciting; He could drop back to ten furlongs for the Eclipse (and the small matter of a meeting with Enable) whilst the King George could also be an option as well in the immediate future. He’ll likely face more opposition from the front there, but it all adds to the mix.

Last year’s Derby winner Anthony Van Dyck ran a fine race on his comeback, being one of the first to be off the bridle, but really finding his stride in the last furlong and a half to be an excellent second. He needs a well-run race to show his best but he’ll surely have a chance of getting that and he should be involved in the big 12 furlong races this season.

Elsewhere on the Newmarket card, Star Sports ambassador Silvestre De Sousa rode a fantastic race on Marie’s Diamond as the pair dominated the Paradise Stakes, where Frankie Dettori was second on Lord Tennyson on his first Godolphin ride in seven years. Speaking of notable rides, Cieren Fallon rode his first Group winner as Oxted kicked clear (pictured) and was too strong for the field in the Abernant Stakes, earning for the deserved tilt at the Diamond Jubilee. Brando was disappointing on his return, although he may want a more truly run race and could also improve a good deal – it’ll be interesting to see the proper sectionals.

At Lingfield we had two very informative trials for the Oaks and the Derby, both won in contrasting styles. It was another Oaks trial win here for John Gosden as Miss Yoda received a top ride from Robert Havlin to pull victory out of the fire and set up a promising season. She was well back off a relatively slow early pace and ran keenly whilst the brilliantly ridden Golden Lips (all credit to Josephine Gordon) stole two lengths on the run down to the turn and then two more coming into the straight, and she did well to eventually bring in the front pair, all things considered; she didn’t appear to be unbalanced coming down the hill, but the way she had to be organised by Robert Havlin suggested that she could do better at a more conventional track later in the season.

West End Girl ran on to nearly grab second, but others may improve past her and the real eye-catcher was La Dragoneta, who was behind Miss Yoda for much of the race before making a huge run down the stretch to come face to face with Golden Lips and actually take the lead for a second before fading. She can surely win a race and is worth following for the future – Michael Bell has had plenty of 3yo fillies take giant strides forward and she might emerge with the most credit.

The Derby Trial was won in much more dominant style by English King, who travelled beautifully through the race, ranged up to Berkshire Rocco, and needed only a tap from Tom Marquand to seal the deal. He heads to Epsom with every chance on that evidence and the 15/2 with Star Sports (and that’s at the time of writing) might not be around for too long. The winner and runner up were miles clear of the rest.

2,000 Guineas (3.35 Newmarket)

The moment of truth for Pinatubo, who was stunning as a juvenile in winning the Chesham, Vintage and National Stakes in extraordinary fashion. His nine length victory over Arizona in the National Stakes was one of the great juvenile performances of recent years, and he impressed with his attitude when that margin was cut down to two lengths in the Dewhurst on a softer surface, showing that he could fight and win a battle to boot.

There’s nothing he appears not to have, and on form he deserves to be favourite, but the one questions hanging over his head – as it is with all the contenders – is if he’ll be as good this year as he was last year. We have seen some big juvenile failures in the past, but plenty of champion 2 year olds and Dewhurst winners who went onto shining careers. The time scholar Simon Rowlands looked at the performances of 43 juveniles who were rated 120+ at 2 – and 21 improved, 20 went the other way and 2 produced the same rating. It would be glorious for the sport if he came back just as good.

However, we are looking at this race from both a sporting and betting context, and 8/11 is a perilously short price to take about a horse in this classic – especially a delayed version – and even if Pinatubo is gloriously superior, he makes the each/way market here.

Arizona, a fine second in the Dewhurst before being dreadfully unlucky in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf at Santa Anita, gives similar vibes to Henrythenavigator, who took the Guineas for this stable in 2008 when overturning a champion juvenile. He shouldn’t be far away from the proceedings and was hard to leave but a stablemate of his makes appeal.

Wichita was a well beaten third in the Dewhurst behind Pinatubo and Arizona, but that same on soft ground, unlike his seven length win in the Tattersalls Stakes. The son of No Nay Never stepped forward in fine fashion from a listed second at Doncaster the time beforehand and holds the physical shape of a horse who should be better at 3, all things being well – after his fine Dewhurst run, he now gets to go back onto good ground (perhaps with the edge taken off thanks to rain overnight) and it’s really interesting to note that he beat Monoski by nearly the same margin as Pinatubo did in the National Stakes. Aidan O’Brien’s Guineas record needs no introduction and the run of Anthony Van Dyck today in the Coronation Cup suggested that the travelling Ballydoyle horses here are ready to roll, he he looks most fairly priced at 11/1,

The other horse of major interest is Kameko, who was a very impressive winner of the Vertem Futurity Stakes at Newcastle (rerouted to AW) when putting on the afterburners to beat three Aidan O’Brien contenders and the reopposing Kinross. That was a most impressive performance after close seconds in the Solario and Royal Lodge Stakes (latter to Royal Dornoch) and a well-run mile with a big field should suit him more than most as it did in the Futurity. A return to turf shouldn’t be an issue for him – chasing a very strong pace probably benefitted him more in the Futurity than any other factor – and there’s little not to like, especially with Andrew Balding and Oisin Murphy having done so well since racing restarted. Star punters appear to have the same view, making him 13/2 second favourite, but the wise move may be to back him for The Derby. He’s an 8/1 shot for that, but if he runs as well as the market expects him to, it’s highly likely he’ll be much shorter for that race and Kitten’s Joy has had winners at 12 furlongs, including Hawkbill, whilst Roaring Lion was a close third in the Derby after running well in the Guineas.

Military March, who beat Al Suhail in the Autumn Stakes here in October, is of interest for that race as well but he’s already favourite with star and Kameko makes more appeal – for all that he’s not discounted for the Guineas. Kenzai Warrior shouldn’t be underestimated – he’s shown a tremendous attitude to beat subsequent Zetland Stakes winner Max Vega on debut at Sailsbury before winning the Horris Hill on heavy ground.

Of the others in what is fine renewal considering the circumstance, it’ll be interesting to see if Mums Tipple sees out the trip, Juan Elcano is a horse of promise after two good runs in group company last season, Persuasion will do well to get closer to Wichita than he did last time, and Starcat and Cephus are lovely maiden winners who have earned big votes of confidence by being sent here although they have far too much to prove, and New World Tapestry surely needs further based on his Kempton reappearance.

Elsewhere:

There are any amount of contenders in the Palace House (1.50) with Far Above, Moss Gill, Judicial and Major Jumbo filling the first four spots in the market, but if Shades Of Blue steps forward from 3 to 4 then she’s be entitled to be seriously involved. She got stuck in the very soft ground in the Abbaye, but before that she’s only been beaten a neck by Abbaye winner Glass Slippers, with the consistent Gold Vibe just behind. That followed a solid campaign at 3 where she was twice second over 6 furlongs and she might be unexposed at the minimum trip.

At the prices Queen Power would be preferred in the Dahlia Stakes (2.25) but there shouldn’t be much between her, Terebellum and Magic Lily, all of whom you could make a strong case for.

Normally I would not be recommending a horse as short as Waldkonig is in the Newmarket Stakes (3.00 but John Gosden’s half-brother to last year’s Arc winner Waldgeist is facing a number of horses who aren’t that much more experienced than him and many with less obvious promise than he showed with a nine-length demolition job on his Wolverhampton debut in December.

That was obviously not world beating event but the second Zoran gave him a big compliment when a close fourth in a strong maiden at Newcastle on Monday and he can further his Derby claims here with victory. Al Aasy shaped beautifully on his debut here in October but the biggest threats might be 11 length maiden winner Punctuation whilst Charlie Appleby’s Volkan Star had his wide margin Goodwood win boosted by Hold Fast this week, but Waldkonig looks to have the most obvious potential.

At Newcastle we have another fine card, including a really competitive Sagaro Stakes (2.40) where Withold leads the market. He’s a big player but Ipsolini, Mildenberger, Prince Of Arran and the particularly enticing Royal Line all have their claims. You could make a acase for any of them but Royal Line’s third to Kew Gardens and Stradivarius on British Champions Day is arguably the best British form here and he handled an all-weather surface just fine when taking the September Stakes (Prince Of Arran third) at Kempton and one can forgive his flop at the same course in September. If he’s ready to roll on his return – and he won the November Handicap off a 199 day break and the September Stakes off a 64 day absence – then he’s got to have every chance for arguably the most in form trainer in the country.

Juvenile Watch: No apologies for starting with the incredible performance from the Mighty Gurkha (Archie Watson/Hollie Doyle), who reared over before entering the stalls, dumping Hollie Doyle at the gate, only to then ping the gate, and spread-eagle the field by seven and a half lengths.

Considering his pre-race stress, Mighty Gurkha was well controlled by Doyle on the front and two furlongs – from three furlongs to one furlong out – of 11.00 and 11.10 in sucession were as impressive on the clock as they were visually. The Coventry is surely the target now. Colorando (Marco Botti/John Quinn) didn’t get a run around the home turn and for much of the straight, and another AW maiden should be on the cards.

Watson and Doyle doubled up with Igotatext finding an impressive amount under pressure to hold off Lothian (Michael Attwatter/Oisin Murphy) and Bowman (Mark Johnston/Franny Norton). Igotatext deserves extra credit for coming from stall 12, sitting in behind the lead and then winning a battle with Lothian and Bowman. The four were nicely clear of Mark Of The Man (Richard Hannon/Sean Levey) and all come out with credit, although Mighty Gurkha was by far the most impressive winner of the day. That said, it would be no surprise to see Igotatext heading to Royal Ascot.

Doyle and Watson have another favourite in the shape of Kodiac colt Captain Magnum in a smart looking maiden at Newcastle (12.55), where he faces John Gosden’s Make Believe colt Third Kingdom, Dandy Man colt Rebel At Dawn (representing Ben Curtis and Karl Burke, who had impressive Dandella) and Mark Johnston’s Thunder Of Nigara (by Night Of Thunder, for yard that has had three juvenile winners, a second and a third so far) amongst the eyecatching ones.

The afternoon/evening card at Lingfield starts with a Novice’ Stakes (4.20) where plenty of big names are in action. Chevley Park have the favourite in the shape of Roger Varian’s Undertake, who has a predictably eye-catching pedigree that suggests she’ll get seven furlongs and a mile.

Mashmoom is a half-sister to no less than nine winners, including 3 pattern placed horses (2008 Jacques le Marois winner Tamayuz amongst them). Mark Johnston’s Baileys Breathless is out of juvenile listed winner Bailey’s Jubilee whilst Royal Address’s (William Haggas) damside is jam-packed with quality relations.

RECOMMENDED BETS (scale of 1-100 points)
BACK Shades Of Blue 1 pt win in 1.50 Newmarket 1 pt win at 11/2 with
BACK Wichita 1 pt each/way in 3.35 Newmarket 1 pt at 11/1 with
BACK Royal Line 1 pt win in 2.40 Newcastle 1 pt at 4/1 with
Ante-Post:
BACK Kameko 1.5 pts each/way for The Derby at 8/1 with

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PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 1 2017: PROFIT 176.85 points
(Excluding Cheltenham 2021 antepost, Premier League ante-post, Six Nations Outright, Six Nations Specials, Cameron Brown Football Bets, Derby bet)