STAR PREVIEW Sat: Six Nations

The Six Nations reaches its endgame with back-to-back fixtures set to decide the destination of the Championship. France are the only side left in the running for the Grand Slam, and their opener with Wales on Friday night promises an explosive start to the weekend.

The Championship is not a foregone conclusion. England and Ireland are both lying in wait if France should slip up, whilst Scotland visit Italy tomorrow, looking to atone for a bruising defeat to France last time out.

Wales v France

France have had a peerless campaign so far. Les Bleus worked their way into the game against Italy and were then much improved for the outing when beating Ireland 30-24 in Paris when their power, combined with the pace and skill of their backs, was too much for the visitors.

Those two games were on home turf, but they dispelled any doubts some might have had about their performance away from home within the first 13 minutes against Scotland as Paul Willemse and Yoram Moefana scored fantastic tries.

They also managed to hold off a Scottish fightback – just like they did against Ireland – when the hosts got to within two points, as Les Bleus found another gear in the second half with scores from Julien Danty and a double from Damien Penaud.

The backs may have taken the headlines there but in performers like Gregory Alldritt, Paul Willemse, Cameron Woki, and Cyril Baille the French have the power to match any side on the planet at the moment, giving France a brilliant balance

They set an imposing standard for Wales to face, but the hosts could make this game much more competitive.

Wayne Pivac’s men suffered an awful start to the championship with a heavy defeat to Ireland but that effort appears to be an outlier, with a hard-fought win against Scotland and then a close defeat to England in their two games since.

They held up well defensively against the Scottish attack – when a lower error count proved crucial – and were punished for a slow start against England, when they were 12-0 down at half time and then 17-0 down less than five minutes into the second half, a score that could have been even worse had England made more of their early dominance.

They do deserve credit for their fightback however – something which they weren’t able to launch against Ireland on the opening weekend – with outstanding second half performances from Tomos Williams, Nick Tompkins, Liam Williams and Taulupe Faletau worthy of praise in particular.

They struggled badly at the breakdown against England, especially in the first half, but the decision to bring Seb Davies in at flanker could give them extra bulk whilst Faletau could be much improved for his excellent outing at Twickenham. The addition of Josh Navidi could make for a much stronger backrow for Wales, something that Scotland struggled with last week considering the injury and illness that hit them in the leadup to the game.

Bulking up against the French threat will be vital, but Wales do have the ability to find gaps out wide and for all France’s power, their defence has proven to be breachable. Ireland scored 3 tries and 24 points against them at the Stade de France despite coming off second best in the collisions whilst Scotland were very unlucky not to have scored at least three tries against them, with Stuart Hogg knocking on when he looked certain to score.

Wales carried genuine threat against England last week when they got their hands on the ball and should be a different position early on at the Principality Stadium with a bulked up side compared with two weeks ago.

France have been peerless so far in the tournament and will take a huge amount of stopping here, but the hosts can be competitive with a big start. France covered the handicap against Scotland with ease, but had Stuart Hogg managed to hold onto Chris Harris’ pass just before half-time then they could well have led at the break, when two tries either side of the interval effectively ended the game as a contest.

France have won all three of their games against Wales under Fabien Galthie, but their two Six Nations successes against the Welsh have come by margins of four and two points, and the hosts look capable of managing to stay within an eleven point start.

Wales v France
Guinness Six Nations 2022
Principality Stadium, Cardiff

HEAD-TO-HEAD RECORD
(Maximum 10 matches)
2021: France won 32-30 in Paris
2020: France won 38-21 in Paris
2020: France won 27-23 in Cardiff
2019: Wales won 20-19 in Oita (RWC quarter-final)
2019: Wales won 24-19 in Paris
2018: Wales won 14-13 in Cardiff
2017: France won 20-18 in Paris
2016: Wales won 19-10 in Cardiff

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Italy v Scotland

This year’s Six Nations has been a tale of woe for Italy and things aren’t likely to get any better against Scotland, who can make amends for their heavy defeat at the hands of France two weeks ago.

Gregor Townsend’s team have made great progress in recent years but they will be immensely frustrated with this campaign, which started in such promising fashion against England before their agonising defeat against Wales and a heavier one against France.

That ended 36-17 to France, but the game turned on a crucial 5 minutes either side of half time when Stuart Hogg knocked on with the tryline at his mercy, only for Gael Fickou and Damian Penaud to score in quick succession afterwards.

Scotland could never work their way back into the game but the scoreline was probably a tad unfair given that they ran 596 meters, beat 25 defenders, made three clean breaks and managed five offloads to boot, and a similar level of performance is likely to overwhelm Italy.

The Italians can be aggrieved about the red card law technicality they suffered last week against Ireland, when Hame Faiva was used as an injury substitution for hooker Gianmarco Lucchesi but was red-carded minutes later, meaning that the Azzuri had to sacrifice a second player and resort to uncontested scrums.

Italy’s performance was admirable in the circumstances – with Juan Ignacio Brex, Michele Lamaro and loosehead Danilo Fischetti all deserving of huge credit – but there was little they could do, following on from a one-sided beating at the hands of England the week before.

Errors have cost Scotland badly during this tournament but they’ve played a high standard of attacking rugby and they will be boosted by the return of Hamish Watson at openside whilst Finn Russell and Ali Price will be eyeing up the opportunity to cause Italy the same problems that the likes of Marcus Smith, Joey Carbery, Jaminson Gibson-Park and others have caused. The Scots can win this well.

Italy v Scotland
Guinness Six Nations 2022
Stadio Olimpico, Rome

HEAD-TO-HEAD RECORD
(Maximum 10 matches)
2021: Scotland won 52-10 in Edinburgh
2020: Scotland won 28-17 in Florence
2020: Scotland won 17-0 in Rome
2019: Scotland won 33-20 in Edinburgh
2018: Scotland won 29-27 in Rome
2017: Scotland won 34-13 in Singapore
2017: Scotland won 29-0 in Edinburgh
2018: Scotland won 36-20 in Rome

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England v Ireland

France are leading the race for the Six Nations but if they slip up against Wales then both England and Ireland will be lying in wait, and we could be in for a titanic battle between the pair at Twickenham.

Only a bonus point separates the side and it’s easy to make a case for either team. England have played in snatches so far, but their first half performance against Wales showed Jones’ side at their best, with Marcus Smith leading the attack in thrilling style and matching up very well with Harry Randall, whilst the pair linked well with marauding number eight Alex Dombrandt.

Their maul and lineout is a huge force to be reckoned with, as Wales found out to their cost, and in Courtney Lawes and Maro Itoje they have two of the best operators in the tournament.

Ireland have been one of the most in form teams in world rugby over the past year, and they lost nothing in a narrow defeat to hot tournament favourites France. Andy Farrell’s side – perhaps the best team in the game at the breakdown at this moment of writing – are stacked with experience, talent and depth, as shown by their starting XV.

A pack containing Caelan Doris, Josh van der Flier, Peter O’Mahony, James Ryan, Tadhg Beirne, Tadhg Furlong, and Cian Healy would be the envy of any coach, whilst Johnny Sexton and Jamison Gibson-Park marshal a backline containing the centre-pairing of Bunde Aki and Garry Ringrose, whilst in Hugo Keenan, James Lowe and Andrew Conway, Farrell has three high ball experts with plenty of pace.

Eddie Jones has often taken stick for claiming his opponents are favourites, but that’s true this time – Ireland shade the match betting and England are underdogs for a Six Nations match at Twickenham for the first time in ten years.

There’s very little between the sides in the match betting and the draw might well be worth considering at 20/1 for a value prospect, given how tight certain games have been in this tournament so far.

This game could be decided by the cream of the crop and a couple of players catch the eye in the tryscorer market. Marcus Smith has been England’s outstanding attacking influence and 7/2 about him scoring a try should give backers a real run for their money. The same can also be said about Ireland’s Andrew Conway, who scored two tries when Ireland beat Wales 29-7. The going will be harder for the men in green, but Conway will be a central part of the visitors’ tactics and Ireland will have spotted the impact Josh Adams and Alex Cuthbert had in the second half last week.

England v Ireland
Guinness Six Nations 2022
Twickenham Stadium, London

HEAD-TO-HEAD RECORD
(Maximum 10 matches)
2021: Ireland won 32-18 in Dublin
2020: England won 18-7 in London
2020: England won 24-12 in London
2019: England won 57-15 in London
2019: England won 32-20 in Dublin
2018: Ireland won 24-15 in London
2017: Ireland won 13-9 in Dublin
2016: England won 21-10 in London
2015: Ireland won 19-9 in Dublin

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BACK Andrew Conway Anytime Tryscorer 1 pt at 15/8 (Latest Star Price ? CLICK TO BET NOW)

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PROFIT/LOSS (MARCH 2022): LOSS -4.41 points
(Excluding ante-post recommendations CLICK HERE)

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