Newcastle managed to avoid a ‘cupset’ in extra time last night but they were pushed all the way and it’s highly likely that Derby can do the same to Southampton.
Most observers and the markets seem to think that their original third-round meeting – when Derby managed to come from 2-0 down to take a draw – was the best chance they’ll have but that game was evenly balanced with the 2-2 draw a fair result and Derby are no slouches on the road.
In the Carabao Cup Frank Lampard’s men have knocked out Manchester United and also gone down just 3-2 to Chelsea, and they are not Championship slouches either – they occupy the last playoff berth.
Spygate overshadowed their 2-0 defeat to Leeds last weekend but there was no shame in that and they have also won 4-3 at the Championship’s second side Norwich, underlining their big game credentials.
Ralph Hasenhuttl has had the desired impact at Southampton as the Saints have pulled themselves out of the drop zone with big results against Chelsea (0-0 draw) and Southampton (2-1 win) to leave them a point outside of the relegation zone. It’s three wins from six for them now and with that sort of form they’ve got to have a fighting chance of staying up.
However, it’s clear that their focus is surely going to be on the Premier League and whilst the same could be said for Derby, Southampton’s squad might need more management. Seven senior players are out of contention tonight even before squad changes and three of those absences are strikers with Danny Ings injured and Charlie Austin suspended, whilst Maya Yoshida is on international duty to add to Pierre-Emile Hojberg’s absence.
Southampton v Derby County
FA Cup 3rd Round Replay
19:45 BBC One
HEAD TO HEAD RECORD
(Maximum 10 matches)
JAN 2019 FA CUP Derby 2-2 Southampton
FEB 2012 CHAMPIONSHIP Southampton 4-0 Derby
OCT 2011 CHAMPIONSHIP Derby 1-1 Southampton
MAR 2009 CHAMPIONSHIP Southampton 1-1 Derby
AUG 2008 CHAMPIONSHIP Derby 0-1 Southampton
MAY 2007 CHAMPIONSHIP PLAY-OFF Derby 2-3 Southampton
MAY 2007 CHAMPIONSHIP PLAY-OFF Southampton 1-2 Derby
FEB 2007 CHAMPIONSHIP Southampton 0-1 Derby
AUG 2006 CHAMPIONSHIP Derby 2-2 Southampton
FEB 2006 CHAMPIONSHIP Southampton 0-0 Derby
SEP 2005 CHAMPIONSHIP Derby 2-2 Southampton
This gives Derby a definite chance and it would be hard to discount Frank Lampard’s men even if they had been facing a stronger side, so the prices on the Saints look to be too short. Derby County are 4/6 with a one goal start on the Asian Handicap, which looks reasonable, and so does the 4/6 on Over 2.5 goals.
PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 1 2017: PROFIT 177.55 points
(excluding Premier League ante-post, cricket and rugby bets to be settled)