NFL

AUTHOR: Star Sports Content

STAR PREVIEW Sun: Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots

WEEK 16: Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots

This preview is brought to you from Emergency Ward 10 or that’s what it feels like this week when it’s been easier to work out who isn’t playing rather than who is. Yes that’s right as with the Premier League the NFL is in the middle of Covid-19 chaos.

Both teams here are missing significant players due to the epidemic or injury and I suspect we are going to get a very different contest to the weather affected game which the Patriots won two weeks ago 14-10. A game in which New England rookie quarterback Mac Jones threw just three passes, yes you did read that right, just three passes for 19 yards.

With a strong wind blowing the Patriots kept it on the ground and ran the ball 46 times for 222 yards and one touchdown and along with a couple of field goals that was enough to get the job done and take control of the AFC East over the Bills.

Buffalo for their part have slumped of late but still control their own destiny in this year’s confusing and complicated playoff race. With a win, the Bills would capture a one-game advantage over the Patriots in the key divisional tiebreaker, division record. For a long time it looked as though they would win this division in a canter especially with the Patriots losing four of their first six games and the Dolphins and Jets hardly providing a threat. However, you can never write off any Bill Belichick coached team and the best coach in the NFL has gone back to basics – ridden the ground game and played sound defence to return a 9-5 record so far.

The Patriots suffered a costly loss last week to the Colts having won seven straight going into their Week 14 bye but were beaten last week by a resurgent Indianapolis side that in many ways are much like the Patriots. The big question this time around for the Patriots is will they flip their game plan around and feature more of the passing game with the weather picture more settled this time. Mind you, having thrown on three passes all game last time it won’t take much to change the game plan and they like many teams around the NFL do have some Covid-19/injury issues to consider.

If they do want to pass more then quarterback Mac Jones is more than capable as he appears to have grown into the role throughout the season. Jones leads all rookies in passer rating (94.6), passing yards (3,168) and touchdown passes (18). The burning question though is will Jones have any of his main receivers available as Nelson Agholor is out injured and there are issues with two other receivers in N’Keal Harry and Kendrick Bourne. It may well be that the Patriots do rely on their running game again especially as the Bills who rank in the top two in yards per passing play on defence have been gashed on the ground by other good running teams this year. The Titans (with Derrick Henry) ran for 146 yards on just 22 carries vs. the Bills in Week 6 while the Colts embarrassed Buffalo at home in Week 11 with Jonathan Taylor rushing for a season-high 185 yards and four scores.

However, as with their receivers the Patriots have injury problems with their running backs Rhamondre Stevenson who ran for 78 yards on 24 carries against the Bills last time is out with Covid-19. New England’s two other main running backs are also listed on their final injury report of the week with Damien Harris dealing with a hamstring injury and Brandon Bolden a knee injury. Harris was the architect of the main damage last time (10 carries, 111 yards and a touchdown) and it will be a major blow if he can’t start this game for the Patriots and a big bonus for the Bills.

The Bills find themselves in the unusual position of being the underdogs in this contest just the third time this year that they have been receiving points. On the other two occasions they covered against the Chiefs and took the Bucs to overtime before losing. Starting the year well saw the Bills Super Bowl aspirations starting to blossom but since then they have made life hard for themselves despite remaining a talented side. Since a four-from-five start they have played below .500 and haven’t won in back-to-back weeks since that four game winning streak going LWLWLWLLW. Snapping a two-game losing streak last week will have done their confidence good but they like the Patriots have Covid-19/injury concerns.

Unvaccinated wide receiver Cole Beasley an important part of the Bills offence hit the Covid-19 list earlier this week and the Bills were dealt another blow in the same department as emerging receiver threat Gabriel Davis (caught two touchdowns last week) also suffered the same fate. With Emmanuel Sanders tentatively due back the Bills should be able to cope with those absences and it may well be worth taking a look at Isaiah McKenzie in any player performance/touchdown markets as he will come in with Sanders to back up main receiver Stefon Diggs. McKenzie hasn’t had much game time but was a dynamic college return man who is whippet quick and could cause problems with ball in hand.

Bills quarterback Josh Allen has struggled against Belichick defences in the past with a 2-4 record against the Patriots head coach with a lowly 55.3% completion rate and seven turnovers. Given the game situation and the way the Patriots like to control the clock Allen will need to be careful with the ball. Allen is also likely to face pressure with the Bills missing some important pieces on their offensive line and it remains to be seen if the Bills can get their own running game going. Allen, as we know is one of the breed of dual-threat quarterbacks and it looks as though Buffalo have finally settled on Devin Singletary as their lead back and he could have a big role to play if the Bills want to play a slightly more clock-controlling conservative game than usual.

This is a game with massive playoff implications and a defeat for the Bills would put them in serious trouble. I have a feeling that the Patriots won’t overcomplicate their game plan and having seen the ground game work before against the Bills they will be happy to use the same tactics once again no matter who they have suiting up in the backfield. It could be though that the manner/style of that 14-10 victory was overrated and would have been a failure if Damien Harris didn’t break through for one long touchdown run. With some many absences on both sides it’s hard to be definitive about the result and for such an important game it’s disappointing that it may come down to which side can avoid the most Covid-19/injury issues. As always with the NFL it’s a case of next man up and I just feel that the Bills may be able to take their revenge here and reposition themselves amongst the favourites in the AFC. Overall though it’s a game in betting terms to treat very very carefully with.


RECOMMENDED BETS
BACK Isaiah McKenzie to score a TD 1pt at 4/1 (Latest Star Price ? CLICK TO BET NOW)
BACK Hunter Henry to score a TD 1pt at 7/4 (Latest Star Price ? CLICK TO BET NOW)
BACK Devin Singletary to score a TD 1pt at 6/4 (Latest Star Price ? CLICK TO BET NOW)


PROFIT/LOSS (DECEMBER 2021): PROFIT 25.95 points
(Excluding ante-post recommendations CLICK HERE)


STAR PROMOTIONS





SHARE VIA