STAR PREVIEW Sun: Covington v Masvidal (UFC 272)

When friends become enemies. That is the story behind this weekend’s clash between UFC welterweight contenders Colby Covington and Jorge Masvidal. Less than five years ago, these two men were gym mates, best friends, brothers. Now, after a very public falling out, they have become enemies and will settle their differences in the only way they both know this weekend.

There is no title at stake at The T-Mobile Arena but this grudge match is about more than UFC gold. During fight week, the former friends have traded very personal insults and were separated by armed police officers at Thursday’s press conference. Rivalries are sometimes forced in the world of combat sport but the hatred here is genuine and they have both insisted there will be no handshake at the final bell on Saturday regardless of the outcome.

According to Masvidal, Covington refused to pay their mutual coach when they trained together and that was the reason for the fall out. As you would expect, Covington disagrees and states Masvidal became jealous of his success as the pair progressed in their respective careers. Whatever the reason for the fallout, we find ourselves on the edge of a fight that nobody would have predicted just five years ago.

It is hard to ignore the narrative in this fight but when assessing this contest as a stylistic matchup it is difficult to work out. Both Covington and Masvidal are returning off the back of defeats to champion Kamaru Usman but there is no shame in losing to a man many are calling the most dominant welterweight of all time. The opening odds of (3/10) for Covington would suggest he is the favourite but the win is not guaranteed against a man who knows him better than anybody else.

At (5/2) you could argue Masvidal has been disrespected in the betting. In 2019, he became one of the biggest stars in the sport after two viral knockout victories over Darren Till & Ben Askren. A dominant victory over Nate Diaz further added to his legacy but that was his last win. His latest loss, to Usman in 2021, was a brutal second round KO and at 37, you must wonder what is left in the tank of Jorge Masvidal.

Stylistically, Covington holds a huge advantage on the ground. As a former college wrestler, he brings a slick and powerful ground game and will be looking to keep Masvidal pinned to the canvas for as long as possible. Masvidal, on the other hand, is a stand-up fighter. The Miami born banger made his name as a street fighter and is at home when the fight remains on the feet. Put simply, Masvidal cannot allow this fight to be on the ground for too long. He gives away too many advantages in that department but if he can keep it standing, he could well pull off the upset here.

At 37 and 34 respectively, time is running out for Masvidal and Covington to become welterweight champion and the loser here will be eliminated from the title picture forever. Neither fighter can afford to lose this and that will dictate how this fight plays out. Covington has been labelled the ‘King of Cardio’ and expect him to set a ferocious pace from the opening bell. The challenge for Masvidal will be to match that pace and earn the respect of his former friend as early as possible.

Taking the bad blood, the age, the desperation, and the sheer pressure that surrounds this fight it is hard to see it going the full five round distance. Both fighters know each other’s strengths but they will be also aware of weaknesses and that could be where the fight is decided. You can easily make a case for both men but the best bet of the night is for the fight to NOT go the distance at (11/10).

It is all about the main event in Las Vegas this weekend but the rest of the card is worth a mention and it features some fantastic matchups. In the co-main event, former lightweight champion Rafael Dos Anjos takes on late replacement Renato Moicano over five rounds. Moicano fought just two weeks ago and although he looks up against it here, his willingness to step in at short notice should be applauded.

Elsewhere on the card, UFC legend Edson Barboza takes on rising star Bryce Mitchell in a fascinating contest in the featherweight division. Barboza has been competing at the highest level for over a decade and he will be by far the biggest test of Mitchell’s career.

Bryce Mitchell is considered by many to be a future title contender in this division but he has never faced anyone as good as Barboza. He will start this fight as the (8/13) favourite and although he may well turn out to be a world class mixed martial artist, Barboza has proven to be a speed bump in many prospects career in recent years and could represent value at (11/8).

One other fight to keep an eye on is the contest between Marina Rodriguez and Yan Xiaonan at strawweight. Both women could be future champions in the UFC and this could turn out to be one of the fights of the night. Xiaonan will as Rodriguez some serious questions in this contest but the Brazilian looks an exceptional talent and at (1/1) to win this three-round contest by decision, she represents excellent value.

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RECOMMENDED BETS
BACK Covington Masvidal NOT to go the distance 1pt at 11/10 (Latest Star Price ? CLICK TO BET NOW)
BACK Edson Barboza to win 1pt at 11/8 (Latest Star Price ? CLICK TO BET NOW)
BACK Marina Rodriguez to win on points 2pts at evens (Latest Star Price ? CLICK TO BET NOW)

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PROFIT/LOSS (MARCH 2022): LOSS -7.00 points
(Excluding ante-post recommendations CLICK HERE)

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