STAR PREVIEW: The EU Referendum

[dropcap]W[/dropcap]e now need to Brexit away from our Euro 2016 coverage with a Party Political Broadcast on behalf of the Punter Party.

Whatever your affiliations, and whichever way you intend to vote on the EU Referendum, something ain’t right here.

Namely, why are the opinion polls saying it’s ‘neck and neck’ when the betting suggests otherwise?

Many will still be sceptical of the opinion polls after they spectacularly got it wrong in the General Election when the 10pm Exit Poll didn’t just rain on their parade it torrentially extinguished their predictions at the same time.

The financial markets have certainly closely aligned with the betting and have already built in a REMAIN victory to their prices.

The FTSE ended trading on Wednesday at a level of 6,261 and it would be a brave person who could forecast how far that might collapse on Friday if LEAVE wins and Johnson becomes Prime Minister-elect. Not a completely impossible scenario.

Provisional figures released by the Electoral Commission suggest 46,499,537 people are eligible to vote in Thursday’s Referendum – a record number for a UK-wide poll.

Two official surveys were published in quick succession on Wednesday night, hours before voters go to the polls.

And they show both camps neck and neck – but with LEAVE in a narrow lead.

A TNS online poll of 2,320 people on June 16-22 showed a two-point lead for Brexit – with Leave on 43% and Remain on 41%.

Some 11% of voters still said they don’t know while another 5% said they don’t intend to vote. I’m always curious about the, not insignificant, amount people who are ‘undecided’. After so much campaigning, press coverage, leaflets and live TV debates just WHEN and HOW do they finally decide? The answer, my friend, is blowing in the wind.

A high turnout looks a certainty to me – so that’s one angle in – good weather and the uniqueness of the event will be contributing factors. I would be over 75% at around 3/1.

The bet for me is REMAIN but with a better majority than the opinion polls would suggest. As such, I am interested in 55-60% at around 5/2 and 60-65% at around 8/1 with Star Sports.

Mind you, with 46,499,537 voters I’ll look at the Grand National in a new light.

RECOMMENDED BETS (scale of 1-100 points)

BACK REMAIN PERCENTAGE 55-60 at around 5/2 for 30 points with Star Sports

BACK REMAIN PERCENTAGE 60-65 at around 8/1 for 30 points with Star Sports

BACK OVER 75% TURNOUT at around 3/1 for 30 points with Star Sports

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