STAR PREVIEW Fri: The Oaks 2022

The betting for this year’s Oaks (4.30) is dominated by two legends of Epsom, which is fitting in this of all weeks, when the great Lester Piggott is remembered.

John Gosden has the favourite and second favourite in Emily Upjohn and Nashwa, both of whom have strong claims after impressive trial wins.

Emily Upjohn followed a nine-length win at Sandown with a hugely taking win in the Musidora Stakes at York, when she dispatched the impressive once raced winner Life Of Dreams by five and a half lengths despite pulling hard early off a slow pace, and had the reopposing The Algarve even further behind.

The way she finished that race there suggests that it’ll be a tough task for any contender to live with her, and there could be more improvement to come on just her fourth start. It’s easy to understand why she’s favourite, although the test that Epsom provides – especially going two extra furlongs – will put more pressure on her temperament, and life could be hard for Frankie Dettori if she doesn’t settle early here.

This also looks to be a reasonable renewal of the Oaks at least, and official ratings have 5 horses within 5lbs of the favourite – all of whom have the potential to make great steps forward as well. All things considered, she doesn’t appeal at the prices – despite her latent ability.

Second favourite Nashwa looked a pattern horse all over when romping home at Haydock on her seasonal reappearance and she made no mistake when sent off favourite for the Haras De Bouquetot Fillies’ Trial Stakes at Newbury. She travelled into the race like a potential Oaks winner and showed a sharp turn of foot to seal the deal there – and she ought not to be far away at the finish if she’s as effective going up two furlongs in trip.

Tuesday wasn’t even three when third in the 1,000 Guineas and ran another solid race in the Irish equivalent. Assuming that she improves for a step up in trip – and her fifth lifetime start – then she should be seriously involved, although it’s worth noting that her half-sister Minding (who did win this race) was best at shorter, whilst her dam Lille Langtry was very much a miler.

Concert Hall was a half-length behind Tuesday in the Irish 1,000 Guineas, when she was outpaced as the pace lifted but stayed on strongly to take third in the last furlong. A daughter of 2012 Oaks winner Was – and a winner of the Salsabil Stakes, when the reopposing Blue Wind winner Tranquil Lady was four lengths behind that day.

The way she finished at Navan – when she just got up on the line – suggests that she needs to go at least ten furlongs and stepping up to 12 could easily be the making of her. At 9/1, she makes each/way appeal against the Gosden pairing.

O’Brien could also have another overpriced contender in the shape of Thoughts of June.

She’s clashed twice with Prix Saint-Alary winner Above The Curve, finding her too quick on her reappearance at Leopardstown over 10 furlongs before benefitting from a step up in trip and a brilliant ride from Ryan Moore to reverse that form in the Cheshire Oaks (Moon De Vega fourth).

Whilst one can expect more pace pressure today, she showed a fine attitude at Chester and Above The Curve’s win in the Saint-Alary has proven the value of that form and another step forward wouldn’t be a surprise at all; Certainly, the boost to her form makes 16/1 look a big price.

Of the rest, With The Moonlight’s impressive win in the Pretty Polly was a hugely impressive trial win and she has to be respected, whilst Tranquil Lady (behind Concert Hall on seasonal reappearance) was an impressive winner of the Blue Wind. Rogue Millennium took an impressive step forward to take the Lingfield Trial on just her second start. Kawida’s return in the Prix Cleopatre was a fair effort and she’s probably overpriced at 66/1.

Coronation Cup (3.10)

A small but fascinating field for the day’s other Group 1 contest, with four of the six runners 5/1 or shorter. If High Definition were to reproduce his Tattersalls Gold Cup second here then he’d be value at 9/2, but it’s hard to have faith in him putting back-to-back performances together, and Epsom may not be his ideal course.

Pyledriver’s fourth in the Sheema Classic was an excellent effort when he was unlucky not to have been closer and last year’s winner is deserving of favouritism here.

It will be fascinating to see the highly progressive Manobo stepping back down in trip whilst Hukum needs to reverse form with Pyledriver from Dubai, when he had a clearer run than the favourite. Living Legend’s defeat of Yibir would give him a highly competitive chance here and he could be dangerous – there doesn’t appear to be much of it on here. Pavacecino doesn’t look good enough.

Rest of card

Nothing stood out enough to put up as a selection on the rest of the card, but these horses made the most appeal in the other races.

2.00: Silencer
2.35: Revich
3.45: Cap Francais
5.10: Dawn Of Liberation
5:45: Saleymm

WILLIAM KEDJANYI

RECOMMENDED BETS
BACK Concert Hall 1.5 pts each/way in The Oaks (4.30 Epsom Downs) at 9/1 (Latest Star Price ? CLICK TO BET NOW)
BACK Thoughts of June 0.5 pts each/way in The Oaks (4.30 Epsom Downs) at 16/1 (Latest Star Price ? CLICK TO BET NOW)

---

PROFIT/LOSS (JUNE 2022): LOSS -4.00 points
(Excluding ante-post recommendations CLICK HERE)

---

STAR PROMOTIONS