STAR PREVIEW Thurs: Aintree Day One

One of the highlights of this year’s jumps season has been the return of fans to the racecourse for the first time in two years, and few places will feel that more keenly than Aintree, where the locals are set to head to Merseyside in their masses for the first time since 2019.

It’s also a big meeting for Davy Russell, who has two excellent chances in the shape of Pied Piper (Juvenile Hurdle, 2.20) and Conflated (Betway Bowl, 2.55). You can read his blog here:

DAVY RUSSELL blog: AINTREE THURSDAY

They can look forward to a competitive festival of racing – on a sound surface with some give in it – with a fair amount of star names considering the tight turnaround between Cheltenham and Aintree this year. As always, there’s something for everyone betting wise with a mix of competitive handicaps and plenty of graded events.

The 2022 Randox Grand National Festival
Aintree, Liverpool
Live on ITV 1 HD & ITV Hub from 1.45pm
Live on Racing TV from 11am

Today we’ll mix our selections between the two, starting with War Lord in the Manifesto Novices’ Chase (1.45). There’s no prizes for picking the favourite to begin proceedings, but Colin Tizzard’s seven year old has made a much better chaser than hurdler and his staying on fourth in the Arkle, when he’d been outpaced heading to the home straight, is the best chasing form on offer.

He looks a better and stronger horse than the handicap hurdler who was seventh at last year’s Festival over this trip and a less lively surface here and the step up in trip are both big factors in his favour. A short turnaround between Cheltenham and Aintree is the major question, but he’s had a 50-day break twice this season and if at his best, ought to take some stopping.

Pic D’Orhy is obviously respected here and does come a fresh horse after his defeat of Millers Bank when his superior pace proved important in the Pendil at Kempton. He’s rated clear of the favourite but arguably doesn’t have the same form as his Arkle fourth. Erne River’s time figures show that he ought to be taken seriously and Nick Kent’s progressive horse could be the main threat here.

Henry De Bromhead has placed Gin On Lime very well this season and might have done so again in this company, but the form of her main rivals Star Max and Fan De Blues suggests that she has more improvement to find, and she looked under pressure when effectively falling at the same time as My Drogo when the pair met at Cheltenham in November.

Cheltenham performers dominate the market in the Jewson Anniversary 4-y-o Juvenile Hurdle (2.20), where Pied Piper is chosen to defeat Fred Winter winner Brazil and give Gordon Elliott a strong start to the week. He had no answer for the speed of an improved Vauban in the Triumph, when he travelled strongly into the race but couldn’t match his speed. There was no shame in that, as he confirmed himself a high-class juvenile hurdler and his flat speed should see him to good effect around Aintree.

The penny has dropped for Brazil in the last two starts, with a wide margin win at Naas followed up by a hard fought win in the Fred Winter when he got the better of the handicap snip Gaelic Warrior (gave 8lbs). He commands respect after that performance and is an improved horse, but Pied Piper has the stronger form and has had the less busy season.

Knight Salute is better than he showed in the Triumph and shouldn’t be discounted whilst Petit Tonnerre won handily on his UK debut, for all that this is much harder. The most interesting outsider here is Fautinette, whose defeat of a dual subsequent winner at Vichy reads favourably, and she may be of interest in alternative markets.

The Betway Bowl (3.20) is a fascinating contest where victory for any one of Gold Cup third Protektorat, Irish Gold Cup winner Conflated, dual King George winner Clan Des Obeaux and former winner Kemboy would not surprise, whilst any rain would bring Gold Cup fifth Royale Pagaille into proceedings.

The marginal call would be Conflated at the prices, but there’s precious little between them and it might be a race to enjoy. On the best of this season’s form, Eldorado Allen is also a player.

It’s very hard to choose between Champion Hurdle second and third Epatante and Zanahiyr (ahead of fifth Glory and Fortune) in the Aintree Hurdle, and both look to have been priced fairly here. If Cheltenham has left a mark on either of them, then Monmiral, an impressive winner here last year in the juvenile hurdle, could be the value.

He injured himself during the Fighting Fifth and clearly needed the run when fourth in the National Spirit Hurdle (Brewin’upastorm second), and with that under his belt it’d be no surprise if he ran a big race. Certainly, his defeat of Adagio from last year now reads quite strongly and he can outrun his odds.

McFabulous was only eighth in this last year whilst Guard Your Dreams has run well this season but had his limitations exposed.

There are plenty of chances in the Foxhunters (4.05) where Jett will take plenty of catching on his best form for all that the top of the market is filled with plenty of chances, including last year’s 1-2 of Cousin Pascal and Latenightpass, and last year’s Cheltenham Foxhunters winner Porlock Bay.

The Red Rum Handicap Chase (4.40) is no less competitive and Before Midnight makes the most appeal. Well fancied for the Grand Annual at Cheltenham, Sam Thomas’s decision to withdraw him thanks to the heavy ground could pay off here, and he can make a bold bid off 148 after an excellent season so far. His latest effort, when he pushed the graded chaser Funambule Sivola to the line at Doncaster in receipt of just 4lbs, is the best form in the field and if he’s not forced to go too fast too early then he ought to be seriously involved. Of the others, a return to better ground could see Sky Pirate make a bold bid off top weight.

Any number of contenders have realistic winning chances in the Mares’ Bumper (5.15) where Ashroe Diamond makes the most appeal on form, although the amount of pace in the race looks sure to be vital for her chances based on her fourth at the Dublin Racing Festival.

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RECOMMENDED BETS
BACK War Lord in Manfiesto Novices’ Chase (1.45pm) 1pt win at 5/2 (Latest Star Price ? CLICK TO BET NOW)

BACK Pied Piper in Anniversary 4-y-o Juvenile Hurdle (2.20pm) 2pts win at 10/11 (Latest Star Price ? CLICK TO BET NOW)

BACK Monmiral in Aintree Hurdle (3.30pm) 1pt win at 8/1 (Latest Star Price ? CLICK TO BET NOW)

BACK Before Midnight in Red Rum Handicap (4.40pm) 1pt each/way at 13/2 (Latest Star Price ? CLICK TO BET NOW)

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PROFIT/LOSS (APRIL 2022): LOSS -0.05 points
(Excluding ante-post recommendations CLICK HERE)

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