AUTHOR: Star Sports Content

STAR PREVIEW Thurs: RB Leipzig v Atletico Madrid

Thanks to the format and neutral location this has the look of one of the most open renewals of the Champions League in some time and Atletico Madrid can take one step closer to European Glory by knocking out Red Bull Leipzig.

This has been a fine journey for Leipzig, who have reached this stage for the first time after a brilliant performance to sweep side Tottenham 4-0 on aggregate in the Last 16, wowing onlookers as Julian Nagelsmann became the youngest manager to lead a side (and win) a Champions League knockout tie.

Nagelesmann’s high pressing tactics were on show for all to see, with a marauding pack of five forwards aiming to create mini counter attacks that overloaded Spurs on the flanks – as they’ve done to Bundesliga sides for the last three seasons – whilst midfielders like the criminally underrated Marcel Sabitzer (9 goals and 6 assists, two of them in the second leg against Tottenham), from his various midfield roles and Christopher Nkunku (scored 5 goals with 13 assists in his 28 appearances) – take the ball on the half turn and unleash Timo Werner and Patrik Schick going forward.

It makes for a brilliant forward line which is backed up by a versatile squad – 27 different players have featured in the Bundesliga this season for Leipzig, 17 of which have made 10+ appearances – but they do have their limitations.

For all their brilliant football, dominating games and failing to take advantage has been a feature of their season – they’ve won just four of nine Bundesliga games since coming back, this despite winning the shots on target and corner counts in both of them – and they’ll need to be uber clinical against the meanest defence in Europe.

With that in mind, it is dire timing for them to lose two of their best forwards – namely Timo Werner, who’s a Chelsea player now, and the injured Yussuf Poulsen. Werner’s impact, at face value, is obvious – people will think about the 28 Bundesliga and 4 Champions League goals he’s scored – but his interplay with the midfield was a vital part of their attacking strategy.

Yussuf Poulsen’s absence would be bad anyway, but with no Werner it’s even worse, as Poulsen’s movement and interaction with Sabitzer and Nnkunku (along with his hard yards) often setup the overloads Lepizig used so often, and it’s not understatement to say that this is the biggest challenge of Nagelesmann’s career.

UEFA Champions League Quarter-Final
20:00 BT Sport 1 HD / BT Sport Extra 1 / BT Sport Ultimate

HEAD TO HEAD RECORD
(Maximum 10 matches, since 2010)
First meeting between teams

This finals tournament comes at the perfect time for Atletico, who haven’t found the attacking fluency that a big transfer spurge was supposed to bring, but who have finished the end of the season strongly in La Liga with their traditional defensive brilliance.

A points tally of 70 was enough for a third successive top eight finish in La Liga and after returning to their traditional 4-4-2 system, they’ve now gone unbeaten in 11 games since the turn of the year.

Including in their run here was an incredible turnaround against Liverpool, having managed to survive an Anfield onslaught thanks to a world class shot stopping display from Jan Oblak (Liverpool won the shots on target count 34-10 over 120 minutes, and Oblak made nine saves) and whilst there was fortune in that escape – Liverpool won the expected goals tally 3.53 – 0.87 – the defensive solidity and resilience shown will make Atletico a huge threat in this format.

The combined back five of Kieran Trippier, Jose Gimenez, Felipe, Renan Lodi and Jan Oblak is one of the best in Europe, with 22 clean sheets in La Liga a testament to that as well as somehow manging to concede just one goal against Liverpool in normal time.

Facing Leipzig without arguably their two best forwards is a huge boon for Diego Simeone’s men – who will rarely leave the gaps inbetween the lines that Leipzig thrive on – and whilst some might worry about them going forward, Saul and Koke do have creative ability in midfield to fashion chances for Joao Felix and Diego Costa, and Atletico are fancied to make it through. An Atletico win with a clean sheet at 1-0 and 2-0 could provide the best value.

RECOMMENDED BETS (scale of 1-100 points)
BACK RB Leipzig 0-1 Atletico Madrid 1 pt at 11/2 with starsports.bet
BACK RB Leipzig 0-2 Atletico Madrid 1 pt at 9/1 with starsports.bet


PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 1 2017: PROFIT 233.38 points
(Excluding Cheltenham 2021 antepost, Six Nations Outright, Six Nations Specials, Cricket 1st Test ENG v PAK)

STAR PROMOTIONS

SHARE VIA