STAR PREVIEW Thurs: York and Newmarket

The July Festival and Dante Festival
Live on ITV 4HD & ITV Hub from 1:30pm
Live on Racing TV from 12:00pm

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This flat season has literally flown by – barely a month has gone by since Newcastle ended an agonisingly long time with action in the UK, yet we’ve had every Guineas, Derby and Oaks in Europe run by now – and the good action just keeps coming as today we have the treat of the rescheduled Dante meeting at York, and the July Festival at Newmarket to enjoy.

The first thing to say is that this is being written during changing weather conditions. The UK is set to see a great deal of rain over the next three days, with Google forecasting a 69% chance of rain from 9pm on Wednesday to 6am on Thursday, and an over 50% chance of rain through the afternoon.

he first of the pattern races at Newmarket is the Sir Henry Cecil Stakes (1.50) where the impressive Newbury winner Lord Campari and dual winner Magical Morning head the market. Both those contenders, and the 19 length maiden winner Tilsit, all look upto this level, but they will have to show all their promise and more if Al Suhail runs to form.

Charlie Appleby’s contender didn’t go a yard in the 2,000 Guineas, but if he returns to either of his two group efforts (third to Positive and Kameko in the Solario Stakes, then a close second to Military March in the Autumn Stakes) then he’ll take a big amount of beating here and he’s worth chancing here on that evidence, whilst the rain is not going to harm his chances either.

The selection is a Godolphin charge once again in the Bahrain Trophy (2.25) as Al Dabaran is the choice in the staying contest. He shaped with great promise as a juvenile, winning an Ascot listed contest before running into two very smart horses at Longchamp and Chantilly. He was stepped up markedly in trip on his return in the Queen’s Vase, and ran much better than the result suggested when 12 lengths behind Santiago. Al Dabaran followed a brutal gallop that day (three of the first six furlongs were run in 12.02 seconds or less) from which Santiago and Berkshire Rocco were held up early and dominated. He’s a good bit better than the result suggests, and the form looks rock solid – Santiago went onto win the Irish Derby afterwards, whilst Berkshire Rocco was well clear of the rest when beaten only by English King. He may have improved from that and would have every chance on that form.

Al Aasy, a ten length maiden winner on the Rowley Mile last time out, is clearly a fine staying prospect and ought to take the beating, whilst favourite Dawn Rising is respected in what looks a good renewal where you can’t discount Miss Yoda either.

The July Stakes (3.00) will test the Royal Ascot form, giving us a line to where the best juveniles might be, and Qaader is taken to go one better than he did in the Coventry (Lauded second). He did little wrong when second to Nando Parrado there (Lauded seventh), finishing powerfully but maybe just finding one better placed, and he should take some beating here, especially if he’s aggressively ridden.

Windsor Castle winner Tactical and second Yazman (unlucky not to be closer) are respected (Victory Heights sixth there) with six furlongs probably a bonus, and Tar Heel made a good impression on his debut at Tipperary, but beat a horse who’s now winless in three and he’ll have to step forward a great deal.

The choice for the bet365 handicap (3.35) was Dancin Inthestreet, who surely would have gone close in handicaps at Haydock and Royal Ascot with a run each time. A rise of only 2lbs from Ascot is lenient given that the winner is a Group 1 horse and the second had pattern form, but the market knows all about her and there are plenty of good types here.

Mister Snowdon was highly tried in the Jersey Stakes at Ascot but had showed really impressive speed on the clock beforehand when turning over the highly regarded Enemy at Yarmouth and six furlongs here should really suit with a strong gallop. The worry for him would be soft ground, however, but he’s worth watching with the weather in mind. Treble Treble wasn’t upto listed company last year after a cosy novice win last year, but ran really well on her return in a well contested handicap at Haydock which has worked out well since – both those are of interest in a super competitive race where a bet didn’t stand out.

The Princess of Wales’s Tattersalls Stakes (4.10) is an interesting renewal. Enbihaar, a three-time Group 2 winner who was a close third in the Prix de Royallieu at Longchamp, has probably been found a decent opportunity to make a winning return and given john Gosden’s first time out record, must go well. Alounak’s Hardwicke second gives him a fine chance here, although it will be interesting to see if first time cheekpieces sharpen up Old Persian, who is arguably the form horse in the field at his very best. However, soft ground wouldn’t be ideal for him.

York has a quality card, but their track is also expected to see plenty of overnight rain from 11pm until 8am and that makes reading the surface a tricky task.

Queen Mary 4th Sardinia Sunset (Pelekai 12th, Sands Of Time 13th) sets a high standard on paper in the Marygate (2.05) although she’d probably want the rain to stay away (would suit Blackberry) and that doesn’t appeal as a betting heat.

The Musidora (2.40) is as interesting as ever, despite the withdrawal of Franconia, who would have been a fairly confident selection. Replacement Ricetta has shown promise in her two Newmarket wins, shaping as if she’d improve for the step up in trip here. She also handled soft ground with ease when taking a novice under a penalty, so there’s plenty to recommend her.

The choice would have been Roger Charlton’s Pocket Square, a smart winner of the Prix des Reservoirs on her last juvenile start, but her debut here is a belated one after setbacks and she may need it. Sandringham third Dubai Love should stay and run well, but the first two were preferred in the market; Lake Lucerne (winner on second start, stepped upto this distance, out of Breeders’ Cup Distaff winner) and Albaflora (impressed with finishing effort to win Haydock maiden with subsequent winner in third) add to what should be an informative run.

The Dante (3.15) has a hot favourite in the tremendously exciting Highest Ground, a smooth winner on his debut at Leicester last year and his reappearance at Haydock, when he was a comprehensive winner over Waldkonig, the pair drawing 11 lengths clear of the third. Waldkonig’s backers will have been disappointed but his third in a listed contest is now red hot form and Highest Ground arguably sets the standard on that.

However, he’s an 8/11 shot now and can surely be watched, with anything slower than good a question mark to boot. We should get a good few formlines out of this race, with Derrinstown winner Cormorant (runner up Russian Emperor won Hampton Court, was better than finishing position suggested in Derby) of interest here for all he’d want a quick surface too.

Juan Elcarno went too fast at Royal Ascot after his Guineas fifth but he handles cut, as does Thunderous (not far away on a line through Volkan Star) and that pair could find themselves at a serious advantage if the course is deluged, whilst Al Madhar and Encipher (first and second in Newbury novice event) are respected.

RECOMMENDED BETS (scale of 1-100 points)
BACK Al Suhail 1 pt win in 1.50 Newmarket at 4/1 with starsports.bet
BACK Al Dabaran 1 pt win in 2.25 Newmarket at 7/2 with starsports.bet
BACK Qaader 1 pt win in 3.00 Newmarket at 2/1 with starsports.bet

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