STAR PREVIEW: Tour De France 2022

The teams have been announced, Denmark is ready for the Grand Depart, and the 109^th Tour de France is just a day away! 

Two-time winner and cycling prodigy Tadej Pogacar aims to make it a hat-trick of yellow jersey wins, and according to the prices his biggest threats are fellow Slovenian Primoz Roglic and Jonas Vingegaard – both of whom ride for Jumbo-Visma.

Ineos bring former Tour winner Geraint Thomas at the head of a potential three-pronged attack, with Dani Martinez and Adam Yates also in the mix, ahead of the Grand Depart from Copenhagen tomorrow.

108^th Tour de France
Friday 1^st July – Sunday 24^th July
Grand Depart: Denmark (Stages 1-3)
Live from 10:45am Friday on Eurosport 1 HD, GCN and GCN + & ITV 4 HD from 1.00 pm 

Route:

The route for this year’s Tour de France is an extremely challenging one – and promises to deliver drama from start to finish if the riders bring their a-game.  The race can be split into three parts:

-The opening week, including the Grand Depart in Denmark

-The mid-mountain stages and Alps, with back-to-back summit finishes

-The Pyrenees, including two short stages with back-to-back summit finishes and then the time trial on Stage 20

We have five summit finishes in total and seven mountain stages, and two-time trials that bookend the race proper. Pure climbers should prosper with the terrain, but all-round skills will be vital – and the gaps in Stage 19 could be race defining if the battle for yellow is tight enough.

It is often said that it’s not possible to win the Tour de France in the opening week, but it is possible to lose it, and this year’s opening stages are the perfect example. After the opening time trial, the entirety of Stage 2 huge the Danish coast, including the Great Belt Bridge, where echelons are a huge threat. Stage 3 is also a potential

Winds are a major threat on Stage 4, a rolling 171km trip between the ferry ports of Dunkerque to Calais when the final parts are very exposed.

Stage 5 goes from Lile to Arenberg, using 11 of the cobbled sectors that feature in Paris-Roubaix, and Stage 6’s hilly finishes are sure to see teams fighting for every inch of space given the number of possible winners.

If any rider going for yellow reaches La Planche des Belles Filles (Stage 7) intact, then their race will truly have begun.

Stages 8, 9, and 10 could well be ideal stages for the breakaway before the back-to-back summit finishes of the Col du Granon (which at 2,413m above sea level, making it the second-highest Tour summit finish) and the legendary Alpe d’Huez.

Stage 13 is a potential sprint finish but a strong break will have a chance, and Stage 14 looks ready-made for an escape – although the Montée Jalabert (3km at 10.2%) could see fireworks.

Stage 15 is a possible sprint – and also a potential flashpoint for crosswinds – and Stage 16 looks perfect for polka-dot hunters to take the gory, with the Port de Lers and Mur de Péguère back-to-back before the finish in Foix.

If the race is close by this point, then Stages 17 and 18 are made for drama. Stage 17 is just 130km and includes the Col d’Aspin, Horquette d’Ancizan, Col de Val Louron-Azet and a final climb to Peyragudes for good measure.

Stage 18 packs the Col d’Aubisque, the Col de Spandelles and then the final finish to Hautacam into 142km – try and keep Weds the 20^th and Thursday the 21^st July free.

Stage 19 is a transitional stage that could easily be a sprint but has great breakaway potential, given the fatigue amongst sprinters teams.

Stage 20 is the last proper stage of the race, a 40km time trial that has a fast start and hard finish. After three weeks gaps will be exaggerated and the advantage of being strong against the clock will be vital.

We end with the usual parade on the Champs Elysées.

Stage Stats:

Potential Breakaway Stages: 7, 9, 10, 14, 16 and 19*

Possible Sprint Stages: 2, 3, 4, 13, 19* and 21

Mountain/Summit Finishes: 7, 11, 12, 17, 18

Time Trials: Stage 1 (13.2km) and 20 (40.6km)

Stage 20 can be considered both a sprint and breakway stage*

Overall Contenders:  

Where else to start than defending champions Tadej Pogacar? The two-time winner of the Tour dominated the UAE Tour and Tirreno-Adriatico, before finishing fifth in Milano-Sanremo, and then tearing it up with the best cobbled riders in the Belgian classics, including a brilliant performance in Ronde van Vlaanderen.

He warmed up with his now customary win at the Tour of Slovenia, and presumably comes here in great shape having avoided the many COVID cases that have hit the peloton recently (more on that through ought this preview).

Given his domination of stage racing over the past two years, it’s understandable that he’s 8/13 for this year’s edition, and it’s hard to put anyone off those odds, but it may be worth waiting to see how he and his Team UAE Squad handle the first week, given the dangers that lie ahead. Poagcar is a supreme bike handler for whom cobbles should hold no fear, but we saw how devastating the opening week can be last year and taking 8/13 ante-post doesn’t entice.

After seeing Primoz Roglic pipped by Pogacar on the final stage two years ago, and then seeing him fail to finish the tour last year, Jumbo-Visma now have a two-pronged attack of Roglic and last year’s runner up Jonas Vingegaard to lead their squad. This brings massive excitement to the race – if the pair can find their best form then they can serve it up to Pogacar, and they finished 1^st and second at the Critérium du Dauphiné in style last time.

They could also take advantage of the first week, with two of the best one-day racers in the field helping out thanks to Christophe Laporte and Tiesj Benoot’s presence, whilst Wout van Aert could be a major asset if he races for their benefit rather than green.

What remains to be seen again is how this dynamic works tactically. Can Jumbo keep both in the game through the first week? Can they take advantage of the winds and cobbles? Who has the better shape? Will Wout van Aert be a super domestique or will he chase green? These questions could hold the key to the Tour de France. If you have a fancy for one to take on Pogacar, then 4/1 would appear fair for both their chances.

Aleksandr Vlasov has had a brilliant year so far. Having started the year out with a win at the Volta a la Comunitat Valenciana, he’s finished fourth in the UAE Tour and third in the Tour of the Basque Country, won the Tour de Romandie and was leading the Tour de Suisse before withdrawing thanks to COVID.

The key questions for Vlasov are as follows; How does he fare in the first week, and how does he respond to his first race post COVID? A balanced Bora team should allow him to go well early on – and if he’s got the same legs he has all season, then he’s a major player and there’s no doubt that 18/1 will tempt plenty of punters. The 9/2 on him without the big three is definitely big enough to take a chance, however.

The Ineos Grenadiers were the dominant force at the Tour before Pogacar’s emergence and they come with an all-action team. They have three protected riders – Geraint Thomas, Dani Martinez and Adam Yates – all of whom are players at their best. The first week also suits them, with Roubaix winner Dylan van Baarle, classic specialist Tom Pidcock, time-trialling powerhouse Filippo Ganna and Luke Rowe in their line-up.

Their best chance on recent form may well be Geraint Thomas, who took the covid hit Tour de Suisse in style thanks mainly to a brilliant final day time trial. He had climbed well during the race however – even if he’d been behind Vlasov until that point – and it’s not hard to imagine him being well placed by the time the reach La Planche des Belles Filles.

Dani Martinez had been enjoying a strong season until he blew out in the Tour de Suisse, ending up 3:37 down on Geraint Thomas. There’s been no explanation given for that showing, which has to be a concern – but he’d make the most appeal if on form. Adam Yates was fourth at Paris-Nice but hasn’t completed a stage race since and arrives after catching COVID at the Tour de Suisse.

Ben O’Connor’s fourth last year came as a surprise – an absolutely incredible breakaway effort on the climb up to Tignes, where he won by five minutes and hauled himself into the upper echelons of the GC battle. The Australian has since proven that was not a fluke since however, with very impressive results this year.

In 2022 O’Connor has finished sixth at the Volta a Catalunya, fifth in the Tour de Romandie and third at the Criterium du Dauphine, nailing down his spot as the AG2R Team Leader, and it’s notable that he’s performed admirably on his two-time trailing efforts – finishing 10^th on the uphill Time Trial at the Tour de Romandie and finishing a very creditable fourteenth over the mostly flat time trial at the Dauphine, losing only 1:46 to Filippo Ganna.

He’s climbed very strongly on both occasions, finishing best of the rest behind Primoz Roglic and Jonas Vingegaard on the back-to-back mountain stages at the Criterium du Dauphine, and if he can maintain that form, then a podium shout would not be out of the question here.

The help of Oliver Naesen and Stan Dewulf will be very handy during the first week for the crosswinds and cobbles, and if O’Connor can make it through within distance of the podium then he’s not to be underestimated. 40/1 overall looked a big price, but of even more interest is the 6/1 for a podium spot and the 11/1 in Star’s market without Pogacar, Roglic & Vingegaard.

Movistar’s Enric Mas has been building a strong Grand Tour record at this race and the Vuelta Espana. He’s finished fifth and sixth over the last two years and would have been at home thanks to the heavy amounts of climbing, but he crashed heavily at the Dauphine and his shape is unknown now. Keep an eye out for the American ace Matteo Jorgenson, who has improved rapidly over the last two years and who was 13^th at the Dauphine.

After abandoning last year and finishing 38th in his debut in 2019, Jack Haig should be more prominent. The Australian was fifth in the Dauphine, showing the benefit of his attitude training at Sierra Nevada – when he finished just behind veteran Damiano Caruso, who will lead a joint GC challenge. There shouldn’t be too much between the pair here so it was surprising to see Caruso as a 66/1 shot compared to 50’s for Haig – and top tens should be the aim at least.

Romain Bardet had been going brilliantly in the Giro D’Italia before illness ruined his race, but he’s going for stage race wins and may be a better bet for the polka dots. Ignore 66/1 about Wout van Aert, who has been more of a powerhouse these days.

Nairo Quintana has been in good form this season but would be of more interest as an outsider if he made it through the first week. David Gaudu finished a career best 11^th at the Tour last year but hasn’t shown much form this season, failing to finish Paris Nice and finishing outside the top ten at the Basque Country and Dauphine. He could also end up chasing stages with Thibaut Pinot.

Esteban Chaves has found his best form for a long time recently, finishing seventh at the Dauphine and second at the Mont Ventoux Challenge. He was beaten on Ventoux by his teammate Ruben Guerreiro, who has been flying recently and won the Ventoux challenge by 53 seconds.

Rigoberto Uran is a perennial top ten contender here but he’s had a dire preparation, having caught COVID along with suffering crashes recently.

Green Jersey: 

This is the points competition – one which rewards consistency. It’s contended for by puncheurs (riders who are all-rounders that can climb short sharp climbs, and sprint uphill) and sprinters (the fastest riders in the peloton.

Here are how the stages are awarded:

-Stages “without particular difficulties” (Stages 2,3,4,5,6,8,13,15,19,21):

50-30-20-18-16-14-12-10-8-7-6-5-4-3 and 2 points for the first 15 riders

-“Rolling” stages (Stages 7,10,14,16):

30-25-22-19-17-15-13-11-9-7-6- 5-4-3-2 points

-“Very difficult” stages and time trials (Stages 1,4,9,11,12,17,18,21):

20-17-15-13-11-10-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1 points

-Intermediate sprints:

20-17-15-13-11-10-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1 points

According to the profiles, this year’s possible sprint stages look like being 2, 3, 4, 13, 19* and 21, with 19 perhaps not certain given its position in the race. That offers a potential of 250 points to the winner of those stages, which gives the fast men the advantage on paper. However, stages 5 (the cobbled stage with 11 sectors) and stage 6 (where the final 1.8km averages 8%) are also given 50-point status, whilst that is the case for stage 8, where the final 2km averages 5.4%).

That very much evens things out between the puncheurs and the fastmen, especially if the all-rounders can contest bunch sprints, and this could be an open edition.

The classifications favour Wout van Aert – the world’s best all-round rider – massively, and it’s no surprise to see him 4/6. He can do pretty much anything and the three stages mentioned above seem handpicked for him. He’ll take some beating, but with a dual GC challenge to marshal, team resources will be tight and there could be some tough decisions to make at key stages.

Fabio Jakobsen has nine wins this season including Kuurne – Brussels – Kuurne, and will probably be favourite for the first sprint stage. His claims for at least one stage win are strong, but the inclusion of three stages titled towards the puncheurs – and a question mark over how Stage 19 will turn out given it’s positioning in the race – will make life harder for him and other sprinters such as Jasper Philipsen, Caleb Ewan, and Dylan Groenewegen.

Those four will all fancy their chances of a sprint win at some point during the tour if things fall their way, and it’s possible they take victors off eachother, which would further suit puncheurs who are capable of top ten results in bunch kicks.

Tour de France legend and seven time Green Jersey winner Peter Sagan has delighted fans with a win at the Tour de Suisse and a comprehensive success in the Slovakian National Championships. If he’s in his best form then the route suits him, but those two wins were his only top five finishes since Milano-Torino and 5/1 feels short at this stage.

Mads Pedersen has been much more consistent this season and the former world champion – who took the points jersey at the Belgium Tour and was second in the Danish National Championships – is an interesting contender for green. Pedersen packs a fast sprint – he was third behind Jasper Philipsen at the Belgium Tour on Stage 2 and beat Wout van Aert when winning Stage 3 of Paris-Nice – and he’s also an excellent all-rounder as his classics record suggests. Strong in the crosswinds, the cobbled stage should be high on his agenda and he’ll look to show up well on home turf in the Grand Depart too, making 11/1 look like each/way value.

Mathieu van der Poel is reportedly going for specific stages here and a more interesting alternative could be Michael Matthews, who too the points jersey at the Tour de Suisse when he spent over 100km in the break on the last two stages. However, the team’s resources will be split between him and Gronewegen.

King of the Mountains: 

The competition which awards the first rider over the top of categorised climbs – essentially the green jersey, but for climbers. Here’s how the points are awarded.

-Hors Catégorie (7 in total): 20-15-12-10-8-6-4-2 points

-Category 1 climbs (10): 10-8-6-4-2-1 points

-Category 2 (6): 5-3-2-1 points

-Category 3 (16): 2-1 points

-Category 4 (22): 1 point

A crucial change had been made to this year’s competition – there are no more HC double finishes (which used to offer 40 points to the first rider over the line, which was normally Tadej Pogacar). There’s also slightly more HC climbs in the middle of stages rather than summit finishes, which should help breakaway artists this year.

Last year Tadej Pogacar took this alongside the yellow and white jerseys, having won back-to-back summit finishes (along with a pair of fourth placed finishes). This was a repeat of his 2020 win, took the jersey on the last climb upto La Planche Des Belles Filles, posting the fastest time and adding that to the yellow and white jerseys.

Second place that year, Richard Carapaz had been supporting Egan Bernal before he had to leave due to back issues, after which he took the initiative and then went on stage hunting and mountain raids, taking the jersey in the process. Primoz Roglic was third and Marc Hirschi, the breakout star, was just behind in fourth.

Previously Romain Bardet switched focus to go for polka-dots and just held off overall winner Egan Bernal; The year before Julian Alaphilippe won by a street as he took two stages and a whole host of points; Warren Barguil, second to Alaphilippe in 2018, won from the breakaways (whilst taking two mountain stages) in 2017, and the year before Rafal Majka won it, again from the breakaways (without a stage win, interestingly).

Tadej Pogacar is a heavy favourite for overall glory again and with five summit finishes that he could contest, 7/2 is a fair price for him to take the jersey again if the GC riders end up dominating the big mountain days. If one fancies a GC contender, it’s well worth having them onside – and 28/1 about Primoz Roglic, and 25/1 about Jonas Vingegaard – both look like big prices.

The 80/1 about Ben O’Connor also catches the eye each/way too.

Of the potential stage hunters, Thibaut Pinot has recaught form recently but he’s very short at 4/1. Romain Bardet makes more appeal at 8/1 but his form is an unknown after he left the Giro due to illness.

Michael Woods was fourth in this competition last year before leaving to focus on the Olympics, but there are no such distractions this time and Israel Premier Tech, who are desperate for UCI points to avoid relegation, are very much focused on stages. Woods won a stage and the overall title at the La Route d’Occitanie-La Dépêche du Midi, and was ahead of some decent climbers at the Mercan’Tour Classic, having finished a respectable sixth on the hardest mountain stage of the Tour de Romandie. His form looks solid, his aims are clear and his ability on steep gradients is a major plus.

Another major contender could be Giulio Ciccone, if the Italian is capable of properly handling the Giro/Tour double. He was a clear second in the Giro’s mountains competition and is surely set to go for stages – but the amount of points on offer late on could test his resilience after a brutal Giro.

Given the extremely difficult nature of the first week, several riders will be out of contention by the time the peloton hits La Planche Des Belles Fillies, so this is absolutely a market for a mid-race play or two.

Team Classification: 

This is calculated by adding the times of the three best riders of each team per stage, for all stages – so for an example, if all three riders made it into a winning break, that team would get a better time than one who had all three riders in the peloton.

Team Jumbo-Visma are favourites – probably due to the presence of Primoz Roglic, and Jonas Vingegaard alongside Sepp Kuss, who excelled in the high mountains last year – but they aren’t the only team with a strong unit.

There are form concerns over some of the Ineos Grenadiers, which leads one to Bahrain-Merida. Bahrain bring Jack Haig and Damiano Caruso to the fold for GC results and a strong backup cadre of Jan Tratnik alongside 2021 stage winners Matej Mohorič and Dylan Teuns. They should be capable of getting in breaks whilst Haig and Caruso can go well in the high mountains to boot – and 7/2 looks like a value play against the favourites.

Young Riders Jersey:

If he stays upright, can anyone beat Tadej Pogacar? It would be a mighty shock if the winner for the last two years was beaten.

To Win A Stage During The Race

A fine market here with some potential value. Given the amount of classic style stages, Quinn Simmonds looks like potential value. The young American finished third from the break in Stage 19 of last year’s Vuelta and was fourth on Stage 6 of the Tour de Suisse. In a Trek team that will be chasing stages, he’s interesting as a break shout but also as an outsider for the classics style stages too.

RECOMMENDED BETS – Betting Without Pogacar, Roglic & Vingegaard

BACK Alexander Vlasov 2pts at 9/2 (Latest Star Price ? CLICK TO BET NOW)

BACK Ben O’Connor 3pts at 11/1 (Latest Star Price ? CLICK TO BET NOW)

RECOMMENDED BETS – King Of The Mountains 

BACK Michael Woods 1pt each/way at 18/1 (Latest Star Price ? CLICK TO BET NOW)

BACK Ben O’Connor 0.5pts each/way at 80/1 (Latest Star Price ? CLICK TO BET NOW)

RECOMMENDED BETS  – Points Classification 

BACK Mads Pedersen 1pt each/way at 11/1 (Latest Star Price ? CLICK TO BET NOW)

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PROFIT/LOSS (JUNE 2022): LOSS -37.38 points
(Excluding ante-post recommendations CLICK HERE)

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