There’s plenty up for grabs in Group B of the Champions League for everyone but Liverpool, who have won the group at a canter with a 100% record, and that’s had a big impact on the prices for their encounter with AC Milan tonight.
The Italians kept their hopes of qualification alive with a last gasp win against Atletico Madrid two weeks ago thanks to Junior Messias’ late header, and after a 3-2 defeat to Genoa, they bounced back with wins against Genoa and Salernitana to leave them top of Serie A by a point from Inter Milan.
A win would guarantee some form of European knockout stage football in 2022 (see below for how they could qualify) so motivation will obviously be high, although that’s been more than factored into a price of evens.
We can expect plenty of changes to a Liverpool side that has a packed fixture list, and it would be no surprise to see starts for Konstantinos Tsimikas, Ibrahima Konaté, Neco Williams, Alex Oxlaide-Chamberlain, Tyler Morton, James Milner, Takumi Minamino, and late goal hero Divock Origi, who snatched three points for the Reds against Wolves on Saturday.
Many of those players had an outing against Porto, where a sensational strike from Thiago and a goal for Mo Salah made it five straight wins, and whilst we can expect Thaigo and Salah to be rested, that performance suggests that AC Milan could still be in for a decent test here.
AC Milan v Liverpool
UEFA Champions League Group Stage
20:00 BT Sport 2 HD
SEP 2021 CHAMPIONS LEAGUE Liverpool 3-2 Milan
MAY 2007 CHAMPIONS LEAGUE FINAL Milan 2-1 Liverpool
MAY 2005 CHAMPION LEAGUE FINAL Milan 3-3 Liverpool
Milan will have to chase goals from the start here and that could lead to an open game, with Liverpool finding opportunities on the break as a result, and maybe goals could be the way to go in this game. The opening fixture between the two ended 3-2 to Liverpool despite the fact Salah missed a penalty (The Reds won the shot count 23-7) and whilst Milan managed clean sheets against Genoa and Salernitana, they are in two of the bottom three places in Serie A.
Before that AC Milan had kept one clean sheet in six games – admittedly against Atletico Madrid – and even a second-string Liverpool could carry more threat going forward. There’s little value in the goals market, so a couple of correct scores involving both teams scoring could be the value in what looks a trappy game.
Group qualifying outcomes (Group B)
Liverpool will finish top of Group B regardless of results in Gameweek 6 with the only matter to be decided being who finishes as runner-up.
- AC Milan will qualify if they beat Liverpool and Porto v Atletico Madrid ends in a draw
- Porto will qualify if they beat Atletico Madrid
- Porto will also qualify if they draw and Milan fail to beat Liverpool
- Atletico Madrid will qualify if they beat Porto and Milan fail to beat Liverpool
PROFIT/LOSS (DECEMBER 2021): PROFIT 3.03 points
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