The PGA heads south of the border this week for the WGC in the high altitude of Mexico City. I like this tournament. The course, as with Riviera last week, is a proper old-fashioned layout with tight fairways and growths of gigantic trees that can punish errant drives.
The course also has the Poa Annua greens. This is the same sort of grass that gave many of the players fits last week at Riviera, so anyone who putted well last week could well prosper here.
Despite a few defections with many players resting before a busy upcoming stretch, including The Players Championship and The Masters, the field is still a very strong one.
My picks are a combination of historical course form and solid recent form on the Poa Annua greens, particularly with regards to Riviera.
Blue Horseshoe Loves:
Dustin Johnson – currently at 13/2 with starsports.bet
I like Dustin Johnson to go back to back here. He won this tournament last year by a massive five shots and I think he showed enough at Riviera last week to suggest he will very hard to beat if he’s in the mix come Sunday. He looks like he’s getting to a good place in his game again. You can always tell when Johnson is starting to get in the zone when he starts nailing the distance control with his irons, which is exactly what he started doing last week.
Xander Schuaffele – currently at 20/1 with starsports.bet
After a slow start to the tournament Xander finished strongly to end up in tie for 23rd at Riviera last week. Putting is one of his particular strengths and he started to drain them on the very challenging Riviera greens on Sunday. He has course form here as well, finishing up in a tie for fourteenth on seven under last year. This guy has got some serious class about him and I think he will notch up another win in the not too distant future.
Cameron Smith – currently at 100/1 with starsports.bet
I know his form has tailed off a little after his recent win in Hawaii but I’m going back to Smith because his odds are crazy for someone who played so well at this event last year – He finished in a tie for 6th on ten under. There are few people in the game who possess a better short game than Cameron Smith and he clearly has no issues with the greens. If the little Aussie battler starts well, he could be some fantastic each way value.
Bernd Wiesberger – currently at 100/1 with starsports.bet
In my humble opinion Wiesberger is one of the most underrated players in the game today. The Austrian currently sits at number 23 in the world golf rankings thanks to three wins, a second and a third on the European tour last season. He should like it around here as his game is all about accuracy and ball striking and his putting game is also excellent. His odds represent superb each way value to me.
RECOMMENDED BETS (scale of 1-100 points)
BACK DUSTIN JOHNSON 2 pts ew at 13/2 with starsports.bet
BACK XANDER SCHUAFFELE 1.5 pts ew at 20/1 with starsports.bet
BACK CAMERON SMITH 1 pt ew at 100/1 with starsports.bet
BACK BERND WIESBERGER 1 pt ew at 100/1 with starsports.bet
6 places 1/5 odds
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