STAR PREVIEW: York Ebor Day
It has been a tremendous week on the track for racing fans, and finally it was for us – as Threat ground out victory in the Gimcrack Stakes and Battaash was simply superb in the Nunthorpe, having shown his best on the Knavesmire at the third time of asking. We go again for one last day, hopefully with the same luck!
The big betting race of the week is the Ebor (3.40), a high class handicap that has so much quality, and so little between the weights – there are just 8lbs separating The Grand Visir at the bottom of the weights – that it is beginning to resemble a Group race in all but name.
Frankie Dettori and John Gosden have carried all before them this summer and Ben Vrackie, who came so close to getting them another Royal Ascot win in the Duke of Edinburgh Handicap, could put the icing on the cake for the dream team of 2019. Ben Vrackie, who went off 11/10 for a Group 3 as a three-year-old, finished his season with a good third in the Old Rowley Cup, and on his seasonal return, he nearly ran down Baghdad in the Duke of Edinburgh Stakes at Royal Ascot. The two clash again today, but Ben Vrackie would have won with an extra stride and he can be forgiven his poor effort behind King’s Advice at Newmarket, when it’s quite possible that he bounced after such a big run coming off a break. Some have come out of that race and disappointed, but Downdraft has since won two Listed races to underline the form and we might not have seen the best of Ben Vrackie yet, especially at this trip.
This is a race which, as said before, sometimes resembles a group contest, and Wells Farhh Go is a group horse who has interesting credentials here. The four-year-old relished the step up past 12 furlongs when running out a comprehensive winner of the Bahrain Trophy, and afterwards, he was a fine fourth in the Great Voltigeur here at least year’s Ebor meeting. Ahead of him that day was Old Persian (Sheema Classic Winner), Cross Counter (Melbourne Cup winner, now top stayer), and Kew Gardens (St Leger winner) to boot. He made a dominant return in the Fred Archer Stakes, and then was outclassed in the Goodwood Cup, but even off 112 he has a compelling form case here and if he can avoid a pace battle here then he could take some passing.
Of the favourites, Withhold makes the most appeal, ahead of Raheem House and King’s Advice, but you couldn’t rule any horse out in this contest. Desert Skyline might be the best of the bigger prices.
The Sky Bet City Of York Stakes (3.00) is a fascinating and high class contest with several horses who have strong Group 1 form going against each other. Laurens is the favourite and would be a popular winner here, but one wonders if the six-time Group 1 winner is really a seven-furlong horse, especially on a flat track such as York. Cape Bryon, a winner of the Victoria Cup who was deeply impressive in the Wokingham, might have something to prove in this company based on his near last finish in the July Cup for all that he is surely a group performer.
Shine So Bright was a very consistent two-year-old who has more than maintained his form at three, firstly making all to win the Free Handicap at Newmarket when he beat the subsequent Jersey Stakes winner Space Traveller and subsequent Group 3 winner Azano. Then he was a fine sixth in the 2,000 Guineas when he led the near side at such a pace that they produced three of the first six horses. The form of that has been underlined by Skardu (third) finishing fourth in the Irish Guineas and St James’s Palace, Madhmoon finishing close up in the Derby, Ten Sovereigns (who ran a similar race) winning the July Cup whilst Kick On has also won a Group 3 since.
It looks a reasonable renewal of the Guineas at least on that form and we know Shine So Bright has the pace for a quick seven furlongs judged by his six furlong efforts in the past. If at his best following a break, he could take some passing. Speak In Colours, who didn’t get a great run when fourth behind Sir Dancealot in the Lennox Stakes, is a big threat along with Sir Dancealot himself. Watch out for Eqtidaar in the market, as last year’s Commonwealth Cup winner has had a wind operation since.
In the Melrose (2.25) Kiefer catches the eye from the many who justified a place on the shortlist. He has always looked to be a stayer and proved it with his handicap win at Newbury in May when he came from well back, and extra distance would really have helped him when he was beaten a neck at Sailsbury in June, or when he was third in a decent Ascot contest in July. It looks as if 1m6f has been his trip for a long time and if he finds the improvement for this trip that his performances suggest, he can be well ahead of his mark.
First In Line, Eminence, Almania, Land Of Oz, Hamish, Skymax and King’s Vow are all amongst those who made the shortlist.
In the opening Sky Bet And Symphony Group Strensall Stakes (1.50) Zaaki gets the vote. The seven furlongs of the Lennox was too strong for him but beforehand his second to the sadly departed Beat The Bank was really strong form and he’d previously impressed with his attitude in the Paradise and Diomed Stakes.
Wissahickon was a tad disappointing last time in the Winter Derby and may want a stiffer track, Bangkok may want the same, this is a step up for Escobar, and Forest Ranger was interesting despite carrying a penalty here. He has some of the best form in the race and should be happier here than he was in the York Stakes on soft ground.
As for the rest, Joseph O’Brien has a big chance to take the Julia Graves Roses Stakes (4.10) with Alligator Alley, there were too many on the shortlist in the Sky Bet Handicap (4.45), and the Sky Bet Apprentice Handicap (5.20) didn’t really make much appeal.
RECOMMENDED BETS (scale of 1-100 points)
BACK Zaaki 1.50 York 1 pt win at 9/4 with starsports.bet
BACK Kiefer 2.25 York 1 pt win at 11/2 with starsports.bet
BACK Shine So Bright 3.00 1 pt win at 11/2 with starsports.bet
BACK Ben Vrackie 3.40 York 1 pt win at 15/2 with starsports.bet
BACK Wells Farhh Go 3.40 York 1 pt win at 12/1 with starsports.bet
PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 1 2017: PROFIT 224.22 points
(excluding Ryan Sidebottom Ashes bet (c/f double and Ashes preview outright), Political Bets posted 8 August, Premier League ante-post, Ryan Third Test, Blue Horseshoe TOUR)