STAR RACING PREVIEW Sat: Breeders’ Cup

It was a case of close but no cigar for us on Future Stars Friday, as Forte showed guts and class to take the Juvenile, but Silver Knott was beaten just a nose after the gaps didn’t quite come in time. A superb late charge from William Buick also saw Dramatised beaten in the Juvenile Turf Sprint – here’s hoping we can grab some more glory tonight!

Going/Track: The turf is firm and fast all round. Yesterday’s two Championship races – run at strong paces – saw closers overwhelm the front runners in the stretch, but it’s possible to go wire to wire here. Keeneland’s tight turns mean that a good start is crucial, but especially for those who have draws on the inside. Let’s get on with today’s action – the Fillies’ Sprint has been run but there’s still eight Championship Races to enjoy!

Breeders’ Cup World Championship 2022
Keeneland, Lexington
First Breeders’ Cup Race: 3.50pm
First Breeders’ Cup Race: 9.40pm

Live on ITV 4 HD and ITV Hub from 3.40pm
Live on Sky Sports Racing HD and Racing TV + Breederscup.com

Turf Sprint (4.29, 5½f, 5f110y) – A thriller in prospect and a rapid pace is expected. Golden Pal sets an extremely high standard on his best form here, but he’s stared slowly twice this season (notably in the King’s Stand) and clearing this field from 8 of 14 will be a task. He’s likely upto it but the pace should be hot and he feels short here.

Highfield Princess has been incredible over the summer and deserves huge respect. She doesn’t lack for pace and will finish extremely strongly – but can she get a good position around the turning bends here? If so beating her will be a hell of a task.

Those two dominate the market but this is a more open contest than odds suggest, and it could suit Campanelle down to the ground. Third behind Naval Crown (also runs here) in the Diamond Jubilee, she’s won over the course and distance before (on return in April) and has the gate speed to lay up early, but the stamina to take advantage of a strong pace. On form the gap between her and the market leaders is too big.

In an open race don’t discount Creative Force and Naval Crown, nor Emaraaty Ana, third in the Nunthorpe and second in the Sprint Cup. Casa Creed is also interesting coming back here if the leaders really overdo it.

Dirt Mile (5.10, 1m) – Three contenders dominate the betting and a case can be made for each of them. It’s very hard to separate Cody’s Wish (beat Sprint favourite Jackie’s Warrior at Saratoga last time out in Forego Stakes) and Cyberknife (Haskell winner who was second to Epicenter in Travers) and Simplification shouldn’t be too far away either. Gunite needs to prove he stays the trip but this is a no bet race at the prices.

Filly and Mare Turf (5.50, 1m1½f, 1m1f110y) – One of the strongest European challenges of the meeting here with Diane and Nassau Oaks winner Nashwa rightfully leading the market whilst Prix Saint-Alary winner and L’Opera third Above The Curve and Oaks winner Tuesday are all in attendance.

It will take a good filly to beat all of them but Chad Brown, a four time winner of this race, knows just how to do that and his In Italian could be a major threat. Her defeat of classy stablemate Regal Glory here in the First Lady Stakes came in a quicker time than the Turf Mile on the same card and her tactical speed could be a major asset here. A draw of 11 is not ideal, but should be easier to deal with around the turf course and Joel Rosario could get a clear run of things here.

Sprint (6.30, 6f, Dirt) – Jackie’s Warrior is bidding to make it third time lucky here and should be able to do so if able to run to his best. However, he’s 5/6 to do so and there will be other, better bets on the card. American Theorem is an interesting contender if the leaders go very fast and the same applies to Elite Power, and they could be potential each/way options.

Mile (7.10, 1m, Turf) – Modern Games should take a great deal of beating here. Second to the brilliant Baaeeed in the Sussex Stakes, he absolutely trashed the decent yardstick Ivar (third and fourth in the last two editions of this race, and then a much closer second to Annapolis in the Turf Mile here) at Woodbine and was then second in the QEII when perhaps doing a bit too much too early on soft ground on a stiff mile. Hopefully that race hasn’t left too much of a mark on him here.

Kinross is on a roll after his Group 1 double in the Foret (beat Malavath) and Champions Sprint, but one wonders I he wants ground this quick. His tactical speed will be a great help from stall 11. Dreamloper’s thrashing of Order Of Australia in the Prix du Moulin last time out gives her a big form chance if she handles Keenland, for all she’s not looked a slow horse in her European racing.

Annapolis could be the best of the home brigade. A good winner over Ivar in the Turf mile here over course and distance, he’d just found Nations Pride too strong in the Saratoga Derby back in August and he’s progressing rapidly with five wins from just seven starts. His tactical speed and stamina make him a very interesting each/way shot whilst he’s 9/5 to be the best US trained horse with Star and both are of interest.

A big shout is also needed for Pogo, who has been in sensational form over the last year and could find this test really suiting him. His 7-furlong speed is perfect for her and as a front runner James Doyle can make plenty of use of him from stall 1. Chad Brown can’t be ignored here and his pair of Regal Glory and Domestic Spending are respected, although Regal Glory’s found higher rated rivals too good the last twice and Domestic Spending hasn’t run in 447 days and must deal with stall 14 to boot.

Distaff (7.55, 1m1f, Dirt) – One of the races of the weekend. Nest has progressed more than Secret Oath since the Kentucky Oaks (Secret Oath won, but has gone 0-3 against Nest since) and is a worthy favourite but at the prices one could argue that Malathaat and Clairiere are better value. Clairiere lost her race at the start when last in the Personal Ensign but Clairiere’s won the last two meetings between the pair and also had Search Results behind her too when taking the Ogden Phipps.

Society lost her chance at the gate in the American Oaks but has blazed a trial in the Charles Town Oaks and Cotillion Stakes and adds another fascinating dimension to the race (along with a lot of pace).

Turf (8.40, 1m4f) – Godolphin have a strong hand again with Nations Pride and Rebel’s Romance, but Nations Pride is taking on his elders for the first time and Rebel’s Romance is taking a big step up in class. The pair should go close but they can be opposed with War Like Goddess, who had nothing go wrong for her in last year’s Filly and Mare Turf but has shown her class this season.

She got the better of male rivals in the Joe Hirsch at Aqueduct, is 2-2 over course and distance and faces a visiting challenge with a few questions to answer. Stone Age should enjoy this test but he looked short of pace (albeit over shorter trips) in the summer at Belmont and Saratoga and Broome was only fourth in the Sword Dance (missed break). Mishriff will love being back on decent ground and has the best form claims of the raiders but whether everything will drop right for him to show his best is a question.

Classic (9.40, 1m2f) – This is all about the incredible Flightline, who has reached a rival none of his rivals (and they are talented) – can hope to match in his three Grade 1 wins. His first try of this trip saw him destroy Dubai World Cup winner Country Grammer by 19 lengths and if he repeats that here then the rest are playing for second.

That battle is going to be a well contested one, with Travers Stakes winner Epicenter and four-time Grade 1 winner Life Is Good second and third in the betting. Epicenter’s confirmed stamina – Life Is Good didn’t get home in the Dubai World Cup albeit on a deep surface – would make him the preferred option without Life Is Good for all that Keeneland’s surface is a good deal faster.

Taiba has only had five starts but he’s already a dual Grade 1 winner and he impressed in the Penn Derby at Parx when beating the solid yardstick that is Zandon in style. Hot Rod Charlie, Olympiad, Kentucky Derby winner Rich Strike and Grade 1 winner Happy Saver are all 40/1 and bigger – that shows you how deep the race is. Epicenter can follow Flightline home.

WILLIAM KEDJANYI

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RECOMMENDED BETS

BACK Campanelle 1 pt each/way in Turf Sprint (4.29 Keeneland) at 8/1 with starsports.bet

BACK In Italian 1 pt win in Filly and Mare Turf (5.50 Keeneland) at 11/2 with starsports.bet

BACK Modern Games 2 pts win in Mile (7.10 Keeneland) at 7/4 with starsports.bet

BACK Clariere 1 pt win in Distaff (7.55 Keeneland) at 5/1 with starsports.bet

BACK War Like Goddess 1 pt win in Turf (8.40 Keeneland) at 4/1 with starsports.bet

BACK Epicenter w/o Flightline 2 pts in Classic (9.40 Keeneland) at 21/10 with starsports.bet

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PROFIT/LOSS (NOV 2022): LOSS -2.25 points
(Excluding ante-post recommendations CLICK HERE)

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