STAR RUGBY PREVIEW: 2025 Six Nations Super Saturday

If the drama and excitement of Cheltenham wasn’t enough for you, then settle yourself in and get ready for Six Nations Super Saturday, writes WILLIAM KEDJANYI.

As things stand, ante-post tournament selections France are just 1/12 for tournament glory, whilst England and Ireland are 9/1 and 25/1 respectively for what would be an unlikely comeback, and Scotland are 500/1 for a miracle that would rival anything seen on track at Cheltenham this week.

France: Les Bleus’ destiny is in their own hands and they will claim the title with a bonus point win over Scotland at the Stade de France tonight, although just a win is probably going to be enough given their massive points difference +106, compared to England’s +20.

A draw with a bonus point will also still win the title if England and Ireland fail to claim the maximum return from their final round matches. Mathematically they can still lose and win the title but they would need Scotland not to claim a bonus point and England and Ireland to lose without a bonus point.

England: They will win the Six Nations if they beat Wales with the bonus point and France fail to beat Scotland.

A victory without the bonus may also be enough for Steve Borthwick’s side if France fail to win without a try-scoring bonus. Anything else requires a French and Irish loss without a bonus point.

Ireland: For a third consecutive title, Ireland need to beat Italy with a bonus point and hope both France and England lose. Anything else requires French and English losses.

Scotland: They would need to beat France without a bonus point and then surpass their points difference, and ensure Les Bleus don’t take any bonuses. They would also need to beat England and Ireland on points difference.

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Italy v Ireland (2.15pm, Stadio Olimpico)

Ireland arrive here deflated after what – according to the odds – was a title ending loss to France, leaving them relying on miracle results for a third straight title. The autopsy of that defeat has been a heavy one – and is likely to continue well after the championship has ended, but first they must respond against Italy at the Stadio Olmpico.

A strong ending to the Championship is important for both sides; Italy have responded to heavy defeats in the last two rounds by making seven changes, whilst reputations, spots in the team, and Lions auditions are all on the line for Ireland today, who will want to send a disappointed fanbase home happy.

The hosts are now capable of hurting any defence – weapons such as Ange Capuozzo, Juan Inagacio Brex, Tommaso Menoncello, Tommaso Allan and Monty Ioane have all shown their ability over the last few weeks – but they have conceded 120 points in their last two games, crumbling after the break on both occasions.

Ireland themselves have also been cut open – the French cut them to pieces once the forwards had ground them down and Wales found plenty of joy before that, albeit with a 20 min period where Garry Ringrose was in the sin bin – and they will want more solidity, although it will be hard to find if they aren’t able to keep 15 men on the pitch.

Ireland have axed Sam Prendergast, who disappointed against France, and returned the 10 shirt to Jack Crowley, who had been in excellent form for Munster before the Championship, whilst the return of James Lowe – a late withdrawal before the France game – will also be a boost to the visitors.

Collateral handicap lines suggest that a handicap lines ranging from 18-24 are about right, whilst Ireland’s extremely high points line of 43 doesn’t carry much appeal. A better bet may be to look at individual tryscorers – there are decent prices floating around on the Azzuri, whilst Jack Conan catches the eye for Ireland – and to back an away win by 11-20 and 21-30 points.

Teams:

🇮🇹 Italy: 15 Tommaso Allan, 14 Ange Capuozzo, 13 Juan Ignacio Brex (c), 12 Tommaso Menoncello, 11 Monty Ioane, 10 Paolo Garbisi, 9 Martin Page-Relo, 8 Lorenzo Cannone, 7 Manuel Zuliani, 6 Sebastian Negri, 5 Federico Ruzza, 4 Dino Lamb, 3 Simone Ferrari, 2 Gianmarco Lucchesi, 1 Danilo Fischetti

Replacements: 16 Giacomo Nicotera, 17 Mirco Spagnolo, 18 Joshua Zilocchi, 19 Niccolò Cannone, 20 Michele Lamaro, 21 Ross Vintcent, 22 Stephen Varney, 23 Leonardo Marin

🇮🇪 Ireland: 15 Hugo Keenan, 14 Mack Hansen, 13 Garry Ringrose, 12 Robbie Henshaw, 11 James Lowe, 10 Jack Crowley, 9 Jamison Gibson-Park, 8 Caelan Doris (c), 7 Josh van der Flier, 6 Jack Conan, 5 Tadhg Beirne, 4 James Ryan, 3 Finlay Bealham, 2 Dan Sheehan, 1 Andrew Porter

Replacements: 16 Gus McCarthy, 17 Jack Boyle, 18 Tadhg Furlong, 19 Joe McCarthy, 20 Peter O’Mahony, 21 Conor Murray, 22 Sam Prendergast, 23 Bundee Aki

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  Wales v England (4.45pm, Millenium Stadium)

This has all the potential to be an incredible tie, with Wales rediscovering decent performances under new coach Matt Sherratt and England – who pulled away against Italy but are still very much under the spotlight results wise – hoping to give themselves a slim hope of the title with victory here to put some pressure on France later.

The hosts are essentially a new team after their coaching change, pushing Ireland to the limit (27-18 scoreline beat the handicap, and was flattering to visitors), and then rallying late on to keep Scotland to within six points at Murrayfield, confirming that their promise against Ireland wasn’t just false hope.

England came into this Championship under huge pressure and have found results when needed, for all that they had luck when beating France and Scotland by a single point at Twickenham in successive weekends before a comprehensive victory over Italy last weekend.

There’s much for both coaches to take from this championship, with Matt Sherratt finding key players showing their best, including a spirited showing from the bench against Scotland thanks to Teddy Williams and Jarrod Evans, whilst his front row impressed against Ireland. Jac Morgan and Taulupe Faletau have been outstanding and Ellis Mee and Blair Murray have potential star quality.

For England – who have endured the crushing blow of losing Ollie Lawrence to a season ending injury – Fin Smith has stepped upto the plate, moving Marcus Smith to fullback has given England more flexibility in attack, Ben Earl and the Curry brothers have enjoyed excellent campaigns, along with prop Will Stuart, and the lock pairing of new captain Maro Itoje and Ollie Chessum.

Going forward they can provide the backbone of a side that will hopefully keep improving although today Borthwick has taken risks in his selection by naming no locks on the bench, moving the excellent Tommy Freeman to 13 from the wing, and replacing Ollie Sleighthome with Tom Roebuck.

How those changes impact a backline which had looked better for the dual Smith axis remain to be seen, although the 9-10-12-13 axis all play together at club level, so hopefully for the Red Rose, cohesion doesn’t suffer too much.

The 2-way handicap lines here range from 5.5 to 11.5, and the latter looks too big a start for a Welsh side at home against an English team that has gained two of their three wins at home by a single point. There’s a gap in class at the moment but England will need to put their best foot forward if they’re to give themselves a slim chance of title glory.

Teams

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 Wales: 15 Blair Murray, 14 Ellis Mee, 13 Max Llewellyn, 12 Ben Thomas, 11 Joe Roberts, 10 Gareth Anscombe, 9 Tomos Williams, 8 Taulupe Faletau, 7 Jac Morgan (c), 6 Aaron Wainwright, 5 Dafydd Jenkins, 4 Will Rowlands, 3 WillGriff John, 2 Elliot Dee, 1 Nicky Smith

Replacements:16 Dewi Lake, 17 Gareth Thomas, 18 Keiron Assiratti, 19 Teddy Williams, 20 Tommy Reffell, 21 Rhodri Williams, 22 Jarrod Evans, 23 Nick Tompkins

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England: 15 Marcus Smith, 14 Tom Roebuck, 13 Tommy Freeman, 12 Fraser Dingwall, 11 Elliot Daly, 10 Fin Smith, 9 Alex Mitchell, 8 Ben Earl, 7 Ben Curry, 6 Tom Curry, 5 Ollie Chessum, 4 Maro Itoje (c), 3 Will Stuart, 2 Luke Cowan-Dickie, 1 Ellis Genge

Replacements: 16 Jamie George, 17 Fin Baxter, 18 Joe Heyes, 19 Chandler Cunningham-South, 20 Henry Pollock, 21 Tom Willis, 22 Jack van Poortvliet, 23 George Ford

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France v Scotland (8.00pm, Stade de France)

It has been a rollercoaster ride, but a first Six Nations title since 2022 is within France’s grasp. A win over Scotland will – all things being equal – give the hosts the championship, and a bonus point victory will put a seal on things.

It would be deserved too, after a campaign which has seen them beat Wales (43-0), Italy (73-24) and Ireland (42-27), all the while scoring 26 tries and 183 points, their best-ever return in the championship with one round still to go.

Understandably they are a very short price to beat Scotland, who will rue the fact they are not in serious competition for the title (technically possible, but would require losses for Ireland and England with no bonus points) after an incredibly unlucky defeat to England which – according to the betting – will deny them a Grand Slam.

There were many recriminations from that defeat but they’ve responded brilliantly with two emphatic wins and the nature of their success in Dublin, when they survived an initial Irish onslaught to turn the game in their favour and dominate it, nearly putting 50 on the side that had made the running in the championship so far and doing this despite a season ending injury to Antoine Dupont.

Maxime Lucu was outstanding when called into action and Les Bleus, who now return to the phenomenal atmosphere of the Stade de France, will be incredibly difficult to stop if in the same form here.

Scotland will feel they should be in the title conversation – they were outclassed and outmuscled by Ireland but dominated the Calcutta Cup only to fall a point short – and they cut Wales to pieces before the visitors rallied, scoring three tries in the final quarter.

With a backline of Blair Kinghorn, Darcy Graham, Huw Jones, Tom Jordan, Duhan van der Merwe, Finn Russell and Ben White Scotland can and will find a way to score tries, but the French can match them and more in that department and they could be too strong before and after the break for the Scots.

Teams

🇫🇷 France: 15 Thomas Ramos, 14 Damian Penaud, 13 Gael Fickou, 12 Yoram Moefana, 11 Louis Bielle-Biarrey, 10 Romain Ntamack, 9 Maxime Lucu, 8 Gregory Alldritt (c), 7 Paul Boudehent, 6 Francois Cros, 5 Mickael Guillard, 4 Thibaud Flament, 3 Uini Atonio 2, Peato Mauvaka, 1 Jean-Baptiste Gros

Replacements:16 Julien Marchand, 17 Cyrill Baille, 18 Dorian Aldegheri, 19 Hugo Auradou, 20 Emmanuel Meafou, 21 Oscar Jegou, 22 Antony Jelonch, 23 Nolann le Garrec

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Scotland: 15 Blair Kinghorn, 14 Darcy Graham, 13 Huw Jones, 12 Tom Jordan, 11 Duhan van der Merwe, 10 Finn Russell (cc), 9 Ben White, 8 Matt Fagerson, 7 Rory Darge (cc), 6 Jamie Ritchie, 5 Grant Gilchrist, 4 Gregor Brown, 3 Zander Fagerson, 2 Dave Cherry, 1 Pierre Schoeman

Replacements: 16 Ewan Ashman, 17 Rory Sutherland, 18 Will Hurd, 19 Jonny Gray, 20 Marshall Sykes, 21 Ben Muncaster, 22 Jamie Dobie, 23 Stafford McDowall

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RECOMMENDED BETS – Italy v Ireland
BACK Ireland to win by 11-20 points 1 pt at 3/1 with starsports.bet
BACK Ireland to win by 21-30 points 1 pt at 14/5 with starsports.bet

RECOMMENDED BETS – Wales v England
BACK Wales +11.5 2-way 5 pts at 7/10 with starsports.bet

RECOMMENDED BETS – France v Scotland
BACK France to win both halves 3 pts at 4/6 with starsports.bet

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