STAR RUGBY PREVIEW: 2025 Six Nations Week 3

There’s a new coach, one of rugby’s oldest rivalries, and a continental Derby to look forward to as the Six Nations returns to action from a mid-championship break, writes WILLIAM KEDJANYI.

We have three short-priced favourites for this weekend’s fixtures, but there’s a huge amount on the line for each country in action and the effects of these three clashes will have an impact on not only this tournament but perhaps the rest of the year – with the small matter of auditions for the Lions, where the competition is already red-hot in certain areas. The action starts with the odds on favourites for the wooden spoon and the title facing off, as Wales host Ireland.

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Wales v Ireland (Saturday 2.15pm, Millenium Stadium)

It’s out with the old and in with the new for Wales, as Warren Gatland was sacked mid-Championship and replaced. That he was made to leave was a big news story but it came as a surprise to nobody – Wales are in their worst-ever run of form, having lost 14 consecutive games, including their last eight in the Six Nations, and they were deservedly beaten by Italy in week 2.

New coach Matt Sherratt – who helped his side Cardiff (fifth in the URC after finishing 12th last year) win the 2018 Challenge Cup as an assistant – is highly respected in rugby circles, especially as an attack coach and has wasted no time making plenty of changes that are quite welcome on paper.

Sherratt has made eight changes to the starting XV that faced Italy, with debutant Ellis Mee replacing the injured Josh Adams, bringing back Gareth Anscombe and Max Llewellyn at fly-half and centre, and switching Ben Thomas to 12 from 10 to partner Llewellyn at centre.

Having players in their proper positions – especially Gareth Anscombe and Max Llewellyn – ought to help, whilst the relationships between Scarlets (provide the back three), and Gloucester (provide the halfbacks, and outside centre) should help Wales find some cohesion after scoring just 15 points all championship, with their two tries coming from Aaron Wainwright and a penalty try, and a new manager bounce should provide plenty of motivation in front of a sold-out home crowd.

However, they are facing the outstanding team of the tournament in Ireland, who have barely missed a beat under Simon Easterby’s stewardship (standing in whilst Andy Farrell coaches the Lions).

They showed coolness and intelligence to come back from behind against England and then were brutal in dismantling Scotland at home a fortnight ago, with a masterclass in efficiency smothering the Scots as they roared into a 17-point lead. The Irish gameplan has not changed much but with their players at this level, it’s proven unstoppable so far – their 22 entries into the opposing red zone is the most of any side in the Championship, and the variety of threats they have in the tight and out wide are showcased by their eight different try scorers here.

Ireland, who are without are without skipper Caelan Doris, hooker Ronan Kelleher and prop Tadhg Furlong thanks to injury, have rung the changes for this trip, and while some might see it as overconfidence, it’s hard to argue they are seriously weakened.

Jack Conan has been outstanding in club rugby and off the bench twice, Dan Sheehan is one of the best in the world at his best form and should be physically ready to go from the first whistle, Jamie Osborne was superb against the Springboks last year at fullback and Gus McCarthy was one of the best performers Ireland had in a below par autumn by their high standards.

Joe Mcarthy was one of Ireland’s best in this tournament last year and Gus McCarthy and Cian Prendergast have impressed in their brief appearances, so to expect a big underpeformance from the visitors would be unwise.

It would be no surprise if Wales were able to improve thanks to their new changes, but Matt Sheratt has an almighty task on his hands to bring Wales to Ireland’s level and it’s hard to argue too much with the match lines. Ireland won by 14 points at Murrayfield and for those who aren’t too keen on asking Ireland to beat a 24-point handicap, wins by 11-20 and 21-30 points present decent opportunities.

Those looking for anytime try scorers should look at Ireland’s backrow – France’s number 8 and hooker scored against Wales and Jack Conan scored off the bench against Scotland.

Teams:

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 Wales: 15 Liam Williams, 14 Tom Rogers, 13 Nick Tompkins, 12 Eddie James, 11 Josh Adams, 10 Ben Thomas, 9 Tomos Williams, 8 Taulupe Faletau, 7 Jac Morgan (c), 6 James Botham, 5 Dafydd Jenkins, 4 Will Rowlands, 3 Henry Thomas, 2 Evan Lloyd, 1 Gareth Thomas

Replacements: 16 Ryan Elias, 17 Nicky Smith, 18 Keiron Assiratti, 19 Christ Tshiunza, 20 James Botham, 21 Jac Morgan, 22 Ellis Bevan, 23 Sam Costelow

🇮🇪 Ireland: 15 Jamie Osborne, 14 Mack Hansen, 13 Garry Ringrose, 12 Robbie Henshaw, 11 James Lowe, 10 Sam Prendergast, 9 Jamison Gibson-Park, 8 Jack Conan, 7 Josh van der Flier, 6 Peter O’Mahony, 5 Tadhg Beirne, 4 Joe McCarthy, 3 Thomas Clarkson, 2 Dan Sheehan (c), 1 Andrew Porter

Replacements: 16 Gus McCarthy, 17 Jack Boyle, 18 Finlay Bealham, 19 James Ryan, 20 Cian Prendergast, 21 Conor Murray, 22 Jack Crowley, 23 Bundee Aki

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  England v Scotland (Saturday 4.45pm, Twickenham)

Arguably the feature of this weekend, as always, this year’s Calcutta Cup is vital for the championship and rich with narratives. The hosts should be bouncing after a nailbiting win against France, and victory here would put them in pole position to benefit from any potential Ireland slip ups (albeit that looks unlikely on their current form).

Scotland, wounded from a battering at the hands of Ireland two weeks ago, have turned what used to be a nightmare fixture into a source of pride recently, winning five of the last seven meetings (D1, L1), including each of the last four, and Gregor Townsend’s side will be desperate to prove naysayers wrong after Ireland dominated them two weeks ago.

England’s last-gasp win against France – who missed three clear tryscoring chances and led for nearly all of the game – came at a pivotal time for Steve Borthwick, who had faced plenty of questions over poor second-half performances, management, and key in-game basics.

The hosts’ decision to change their backline, with Fin Smith (below) at fly-half and Marcus Smith at fullback, was justified, with Smith covering the back-field well and giving England another option in the kicking battle, for all he kicked poorly off the tee before Fin Smith was given responsibilities off the tee.

The dual playmaker system worked well, whilst Alex Mitchell and Fin Smith’s partnership carried over from Northampton seamlessly, proving key late on as England snatched victory. Minor changes to the backrow – Tom Willis had a mammoth tackle count and Tom Curry was exceptional – also worked, although it was key that the bench (crucial tries came from replacements Fin Baxter and Elliot Daly while Ben Curry was excellent) performed under pressure.

According to the odds and results Scotland have performed about as expected – a win against Italy and a loss against Ireland – but they were hit and miss on the opening weekend despite a sensational Huw Jones hat-trick and against Ireland only losing by 14 points flattered them.

The Irish backrow simply smothered them at the breakdown, with Ben White constantly knocked off his stride and Matt Fagerson and Rory Darge dominated by their opposite numbers as the Irish raced into a 17-point lead, effectively ending the contest.

Finn Russell – perhaps not at his best against Italy – had a sickening clash with Darcy Graham that unsettled an already beaten team and their challenge is to recover physically and mentally from that against and England side they know they’re capable of beating.

On paper, this is a much more suitable match up for them. England have explosivity but don’t smother teams in the way Ireland did, either through territorial control or sheer weight and mass in defence, and it’s possible, although tricky, to bypass their blitz defence.

France beat 31 England defenders, 607 metres and had made nine clean breaks, and had it not been for drizzly conditions and a greasy ball, would have scored at least two more tries.

There’s no rain expected tomorrow, which should help both sides release their attacking weapons, and it would be no surprise if there was a big role for both backlines here. A key matchup may come in the centres, where dual-playmaker Tom Jordan (standing in for Sione Tuipulotu) faces off against Henry Slade at 12. England’s 13 Ollie Lawrence has impressed so far in both contests, and England’s centre pairing looked particularly effective with the new backline against France.

This has the potential to be a very open encounter, and a relatively high-scoring contest wouldn’t be a surprise. The last two Calcutta Cups have seen totals of 52 and 51 points, and England’s games have seen totals of 49 and 51, with the last tally kept down by several handling errors.

It would be no surprise if Scotland (who have had points totals of 50 and 52) were to bounce back facing a more suitable test in a more open game, but England should have a huge confidence boost from beating France and with Fin Smith off the tee under drier skies, home advantage and arguably the better forward options, look the better placed side here.

6/5 on England to win and over 45.5 points makes plenty of appeal, whilst those who don’t want to get involved in the handicap markets are advised to take over 45.5 points as a standalone option.

Teams

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England: 15 Marcus Smith, 14 Tommy Freeman, 13 Ollie Lawrence, 12 Henry Slade, 11 Ollie Sleightholme, 10 Fin Smith, 9 Alex Mitchell, 8 Tom Willis, 7 Ben Earl, 6 Tom Curry, 5 Ollie Chessum, 4 Maro Itoje, 3 Will Stuart, 2 Luke Cowan-Dickie, 1 Ellie Genge

Replacements: 16 Jamie George, 17 Fin Baxter, 18 Joe Heyes, 19 George Martin, 20 Chandler Cunningham-South, 21 Ben Curry, 22 Harry Randall, 23 Elliot Daly

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Scotland: 15 Blair Kinghorn, 14 Kyle Rowe, 13 Huw Jones, 12 Tom Jordan, 11 Duhan van der Merwe, 10 Finn Russell (cc), 9 Ben White, 8 Jack Dempsey, 7 Rory Darge (cc), 6 Jamie Ritchie, 5 Grant Gilchrist, 4 Jonny Gray, 3 Zander Fagerson, 2 Dave Cherry, 1 Pierre Schoeman

Replacements: 16 Ewan Ashman, 17 Rory Sutherland, 18 Will Hurd, 19 Sam Skinner, 20 Gregor Brown, 21 Matt Fagerson, 22 Jamie Dobie, 23 Stafford McDowall

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Italy v France (Sunday 3.00pm, Rome)

A case of last but never least here, as Italy are bidding to build on last week’s win over Wales – and avenge last year’s draw, which should have been a win – whilst France, smarting from their last gasp defeat to England, will want to get back on track to keep Ireland within some sort of reach for the championship ahead of their meeting in Week 4.

There’s also some pressure on Fabian Galthie, who has come in for some (rather harsh) criticism following that loss, with French fans yearning for another trophy (won the 2022 Six Nations, knocked out in the 2023 World Cup on home soil), from one of the best sides in Les Bleus recent history.

Such questions are arguably fair given the depth that France possesses, although we are in a rich age for international rugby (or at least in the case of Ireland and the Springboks), and Galthie can hardly be blamed for France’s failure to hold a greasy ball on three occasions. Les Bleus beat 31 England defenders, ran 607 metres and made nine clean breaks at Twickenham, when they were just pipped at the post.

Italy – who are aiming to win three consecutive home games for the first time in their Six Nations history – have made big strides over the past 5 years and look to be improving under new coach Gonzalo Quesada.

They were sent off strong favourites against Wales and duly delivered, deserving their 22-15 win here two weeks ago, although their Round 1 defeat to Scotland is probably a better marker here. On that occasion they impressed with their resilience, coming back from 14-0 down to 19-19 entering the final quarter.

Juan Ignacio Brex and Tommaso Meononcello were superb in the centres whilst Tommaso Allan impressed at fullback, and props Danilo Fischetti and Simone Ferrari went well against the Scottish, something that should provide encouragement for the visit of the French.

Les Bleus have run the changes, with Galthie going for the Springbok ‘bomb squad’ – seven forwards and just one back on the bench, and both as Damian Penaud and Matthieu Jalibert are axed from the 23, along with Nolan Le Garrec.

That includes Tomas Ramos being moved to 10, Leo Barre moving to cover full-back, and Théo Attissogbe returning to the starting lineup at wing after his starring role against Wales on the opening weekend.

In the past, these changes have often been chaotic, but France have enviable strength in depth and with Ramos a regular 10 at Toulouse, Les Bleus could benefit from his partnership with Dupont, especially at half-back.

No rain is forecast for the Stadio Olimpico on Sunday which will be joy to the ears of Les Bleus, who have had no problem scoring during this championship even in spite of the weather. A match line of 50 points is understandable but it may be worth backing France to score 35 points or more. They would have hit that mark against England under dry skies, went easy on Wales and scored 43 points, and the Azzuri shipped 31 points to Scotland in week 1. In the handicap market, Italy make appeal given a 17+ start but the best value may be in backing France to win by either 11-20 or 21-30 points.

Teams

🇮🇹 Italy: 15 Tommaso Allan, 14 Ange Capuozzo, 13 Juan Ignacio Brex, 12 Tommaso Menoncello, 11 Simone Gesi, 10 Paolo Garbisi, 9 Martin Page-Relo, 8 Lorenzo Cannone, 7 Michele Lamaro (c), 6 Sebastian Negri, 5 Federico Ruzza, 4 Niccolo Cannone, 3 Simone Ferrari, 2 Gianmarco Lucchesi, 1 Danilo Fischetti

Replacements:16 Giacomo Nicotera, 17 Mirco Spagnolo, 18 Joshua Zilocchi, 19 Riccardo Favretto, 20 Manuel Zuliani, 21 Ross Vintcent, 22 Alessandro Garbisi, 23 Jacopo Trulla

🇫🇷 France: 15 Leo Barré, 14 Théo Attissogbe, 13 Pierre-Louis Barassi, 12 Yoram Moefana, 11 Louis Bielle-Biarrey, 10 Thomas Ramos, 9 Antoine Dupont, 8 Gregory Alldritt, 7 Paul Boudehent, 6 Francois Cros, 5 Mickaël Guillard, 4 Thibaud Flament, 3 Uini Atonio, 2 Peato Mauvaka, 1 Jean-Baptiste Gros

Replacements:16 Julien Marchand, 17 Cyril Baille, 18 Dorian Aldegheri, 19 Romain Taofifenua, 20 Oscar Jegou, 21 Alexandre Roumat, 22 Anthony Jelonch, 23 Maxime Lucu

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RECOMMENDED BETS – Wales v Ireland
BACK Ireland to win by 11-20 points 1 pt at 13/5 (⭐ ? CLICK TO BET NOW)
BACK Ireland to win by 21-30 points 1 pt at 12/5 (⭐ ? CLICK TO BET NOW)

RECOMMENDED BETS – England v Scotland
BACK England to win and +45.5 points 3 pts at 6/5  (⭐ ? CLICK TO BET NOW)

RECOMMENDED BETS – Italy v France
BACK France Over 34.5 points 2 pts at 3/4 (⭐ ? CLICK TO BET NOW)

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PROFIT/LOSS (FEB 2024): +1.59 points

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