Tarr Very Much

Well, like said I like to kick things off with a moan and how unlucky were we last week?

The NAP was Norwich at 2/1 and duly obliged. Listen here Southampton fans and general public alike, they are over rated I tell ye, overrated!! West Ham tried to keep it tight at home and did so, managing to lose 1-0 at home to Stoke. I said I couldn’t find another bet and I should have stuck with the double. However, into the Championship I delved and it proved costly. A dodgy penalty and a 25 yard screamer at the DW did for the under 2.5 fans and it was another trip to ‘moansville’ due to the obligatory 2 out of 3 in the Trixie!

Anyway, it’s important to remember that last week was still a profitable week, although as mentioned we didn’t get the absolute lot. So there’s only one thing to do. Get the punting boots on, print off the weekend coupon and crack on. So without any further ado here is this week’s Premier League Trixie.

Aston Villa welcome a struggling Newcastle side to Villa Park and I hazard a guess that Alan Pardew’s motley crew won’t be relishing the trip. Having been battered by Man City they showed good character to beat an albeit poor Fulham side 1-0 at home. It took a moment of magic from Hatem Ben Arfa (pictured), who for the record is integral to any creativity the ‘Toon’ possess. Aston Villa though should be too good at home and are beginning to look like a side with real potential. Paul Lambert did things his way last year, with a long term view. He was vindicated picking Christian Benteke ahead of Darren Bent and the ‘kids’ he continued to play ahead of senior pro’s are really beginning to flourish. The likes of Lowton, Westwood, Clarke, Weimann and Baker are all members of ‘project Lambert’ and the managers faith appears to be fully justified given their positive start to the season. The long and the short of it is Villa are going in the right direction and Newcastle are not. Benteke is a difference maker and for that reason Villa at 11/10 are this week’s first leg of the Trixie.

As previously mentioned on this blog I have a strong theory relating to Jose Mourinho’s tactics at Chelsea. When he first arrived back on these shores back in 2004 he approached the job with a clear plan….defend. A title winning team is built on a back four and this is the mentality he instilled into his players. In 2004 Chelsea played 11 games by November 1st in the League. Of these eleven game, nine made up under 2.5 goals and seven under 1.5!! They learn to defend and thus in time earn the right attack. In the immortal words of Aidan O’Brian, ‘listen’ I am telling you the same thing is happening. Chelsea’s three Premier League games have produced five goals and I fancy this pattern to continue. During Mourinho’s previous reign Chelsea played Everton six times in the league and under 2.5 kopped four times. Throw into the mix Everton’s lack of fire power (Lukaku can’t start) and everything points towards 1-0 or 2-0 Chelsea. Although putting up under 1.5 goals is exceptionally tempting I’m going all girlie and the selection is Under 2.5 goals at 8/11.

Worryingly, a bit like a fortnight ago I’m struggling for our third leg. It’s a toss-up between under 2.5 goals in the Fulham game or Arsenal to win away at Sunderland. After much ‘umming and arrhing‘ I have decided to plump with Arsenal. Sunderland just look a shambles and with the mad Italian at the helm I really can’t see things improving. Not only that Borini and Altidore are not the answer to their goal scoring problems. Arsenal have looked slick in the past couple of weeks and Giroud could be a real handful this season. In short Arsenal should have too much class and pass them to death. Selection Arsenal at 8/11.

Recommendation
Aston Villa @ 11/10
Everton v Chelsea under 2.5 @ 8/11
Arsenal @ 8/11