VOTE 24: Countdown Blog 1
There’s arguably never been a more exciting year for political betting. Within the next 12 months we’ll have a General Election in the UK – and all that comes with it – and if Labour’s mammoth poll lead is off-putting for those seeking a contest, then over the Atlantic Ocean we are already well into one of the tightest and highest-stakes Presidential elections in history, with the two candidates (if you want to back RFK, then please, make sure to call me immediately), barely separated in the betting, writes WILLIAM KEDJANYI.
Before then we’ve got a slew of local elections to get stuck into, including 5 Mayoral contests, a by-election in Blackpool South (yes, really – remember that’s tomorrow?) and some crucial councils which will tell us a lot about the direction of travel – perhaps for the last time before Britain goes to the polls.
Oh, and there’s an SNP leadership contest underway where the new leader must command the confidence of the Scottish Parliament – or it’s an election in Holyrood. So, not much going on then.
🏏 If there’s one thing I’m expecting this year, it’s the unexpected. And former England spinner Monty Panesar being announced by George Galloway as a candidate is certainly unexpected. What’s even more unexpected? Seeing him backed from 25/1 to 14/1 to win the seat of Ealing Southall. Thankfully that’s a close trip, so I’d better get practicing my spin bowling very soon. More below…
PRESS RELEASE: Money floods in for Monty Panesar to win Ealing Southall seat
🔵 The Reform Party haven’t been mentioned much in the led up to the local elections – the successor to UKIP and the Brexit Party remake don’t have the infrastructure they did – but they’re fully entrenched in the national discourse and we’re beginning to see their candidates get put to the test. Just how they do at a General Election remains to be seen – the markets were expecting more from them at the by-elections, but they took a chunk away from the Tories there and they’re ahead of the Tories in two Mayoral races (North East, Greater Manchester).
🔵 The best stress test of their ambitions might well be Blackpool South, however. The by-election – snuck into an avalanche of contests this week – might be the best barometer of their progress yet. The by-election was triggered after The Times revealed that Scott Benton, the former MP, had offered to lobby ministers in exchange for money, and in 2016 residents of Blackpool voted to Leave by 67.5% to 37.5% and the resources of the other big parties will surely have been stretched by the fierce Mayoral contests. Reform’s previous best-ever by-election performance was 13% in the previously safe Tory seat of Wellingborough – just what can Mark Butcher (no, not the cricketer) achieve this time?
🗳️ Amongst the many contests taking place this week, Londoners will vote for their Mayor. So with that in mind, I took the opportunity to head down to City Hall to assess the state of play in London, Scotland, and two of the most important Mayoral races. See them below:
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🗳️ Londoners vote for their mayor this week with Sadiq Khan long odds on to win again!@KeejayOV3 is at City Hall to ask – how many Londoners will #VoteSadiq?
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🔞 T&Cs apply | 18+ https://t.co/9fj8GQUoFv pic.twitter.com/i2gqxAHP9P— Star Sports Bookmakers (@StarSports_Bet) April 29, 2024
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🗳️ It’s been a big day of news in Scotland – here’s @KeejayOV3 on who will replace Humza Yousaf:
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🔞 T&Cs apply | 18+ https://t.co/9fj8GQUoFv pic.twitter.com/vvZ3yBAV81— Star Sports Bookmakers (@StarSports_Bet) April 29, 2024
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🗳️ Two big Mayoral contests are going down to the wire – here’s @KeejayOV3 on how Labour are trying to unseat Tory mayors Andy Street and Ben Houchen:
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🔞 T&Cs apply | 18+ https://t.co/9fj8GQUoFv pic.twitter.com/ldzijCBjsZ— Star Sports Bookmakers (@StarSports_Bet) April 29, 2024
🇺🇸 Local Elections – including a cracking set of Mayoral contests – have kept most people’s eyes on the domestic prize as far as political betting is concerned, but there’s plenty of activity in the race for the Presidency. Plenty are getting very excited and terrified (depending on your view) by various polls showing Trump or Biden performing better. Many have pointed out various leads or deficits with young voters, or voters of colour, but there’s a category that shouldn’t be overlooked.
🗳️ According to Gallup, Political independents make up the largest political bloc in the U.S., with an average of 43% of American adults identifying that way in 2023 (which matched the record of 2014). In 2016 – I’m sure you remember that election – Trump won independents 46% to 42%. In 2020? 66% of independent voters said they had an unfavourable view of the former president while just 30% viewed him favourably, according to the Edison Research exit poll. Looking into the various groupings of polls is always good practice – but make sure not to forget the independents!
WILLIAM KEDJANYI
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