VOTE24

AUTHOR: William Kedjanyi

VOTE 24: Debate Disaster + UK Countdown

There’s less than a week until Polling Day in the UK but this week’s blog starts in the US, where Joe Biden’s presidential campaign could be in doubt, writes WILLIAM KEDJANYI.

Since the beginning of his presidency age and mental acuity has been a concern – albeit something that presidential successes had helped – but a visual decline had worried many Democrats and this morning’s debate performance – his first head-to-head with Trump since 2020 and his longest public speech since the State of the Union – was nothing short of calamitous for his campaign.

Clearly afflicted by a cold, something which was not briefed pre-debate, Biden misspoke numerous times, lost his trail of thought on more than one occasion, struggled to find fluency, botched attack lines on Trump and then froze at the end of one answer.

US Election Countdown:

What next?

The post-debate headlines speak for themselves:

📰 WSJ: Biden delivers unsteady performance in debate with Trump

📰 WP: Biden struggles, Trump deflects questions

📰 NYT: Biden struggles as Trump blusters in contentious debate

📰 FT: Biden stumbles in bad-tempered debate with Trump in Atlanta

📊 Bloomberg: Biden falters against Trump in high-stakes 2024 debate

📰 AP: A halting Biden tries to confront Trump at debate but stirs Democratic panic about his candidacy

💻 BBC: Biden struggles in heated debate as personal attacks fly

Senior Democrats – who may have raised concerns privately in the past, without angling for a replacement – were in panic afterwards, briefing major news networks that Biden may need to be replaced. Indeed, Van Jones on CNN has said so along with senior opinion writers from the New York Times – an unprecedented situation.

How would that work?

The Democratic Party does have a system for nominating a fresh candidate at the convention – if a candidate declines a nomination – but it’s not been used in decades. Biden has won over 90% of the Delegates and is the presumptive nominee, but they are not legally bound to vote for Biden in the roll call.

If he was to step down then any number of contenders could argue their case to the delegates – and if no candidate won a majority of delegates on the first ballot, then superdelegates would be free to vote afterwards.

If not Biden, then who?

Gavin Newsom has been the big market mover – he’s now 5/1 from 22/1 with Star Sports – and he’s the name many are suggesting, but vice president Kamala Harris would surely be the first port of call and looks overpriced at 20/1, at least as a trading option. If the Democratic Party were to pass over the first black and female vice president, they could also upset their base – which is not nearly as solid as Trump’s – further still.

Could we get a suggestion from further left-field? Govs. Gretchen Whitmer and JB Pritzker have impressed many, with Whitmer in particular talked up as a future president in the past.

But for all the above to take place, Biden needs to step down – and moments like this, in the aftermath of the debate – suggest neither he nor the first lady are considering it at the moment.

BREAKING: No change in plan for Biden, per his advisor

🎙️ Betting The House

Moving onto the UK now – although watch that space in the US – and it was good to catch up on GambleGate, interesting constituencies and the latest market updates in this edition of Bet The House, with Nick Luck and Neil Channing:

📊 Data Points

In the UK, we hurtle towards Polling Day at top speed with a flood of news stories – but here’s the state of play with projections at the moment:

• FindOutNow/Electoral Calculus 2: Con 60: Lab 40/Con 20/ Ref 18/ Lib 11
Fieldwork: 14/06-24/06

• WeThink/Economist: Con 76 seats: Lab 42/Con 22/ Ref: 14/ Lib 11
Fieldwork 30/05-21/06

• Focaldata: Con 110 seats: Lab 41.4/Con 23/Ref 15.5/Lib: 11.3 Fieldwork:
03/06-20/06

• Savanta/Electoral Calculus/Telegraph: Con 53: Lab 44%/ Con 23%/ Ref
13%/ Lib 12% Fieldwork: 07/06-18/06

• Yougov 2: Con 108: Lab 39/ Con 22/ Ref 15/ Lib 12 Fieldwork 11/06-18/06

• More in Common: Con 155: Lab 44/ Con 24/ Ref 8/ Lib 11: Fieldwork
22/05-17/06

• Survation: Con 72: Lab 40/ Con 23/Ref 12/Lib 11 Fieldwork 31/05-13/06

• IPSOS: Con 115 seats: Lab 43/ Con 25/Ref 12. Lib 10% Fieldwork: 7/06-
12/06

• YouGov 1: Con 140: Con: 25/ Ref: 10: Fieldwork 24/05-01/06

• FindOutNow/Electoral Calculus 1: Con 66: Lab 46/ Con 19/ Ref 12/ Lib 10
Fieldwork: 20/05-27/05

🗳️ General Election Countdown:

🔴 Labour

Keir Starmer has completed a phone-in on Radio 5 Live – which you can find on BBC Sounds or iPlayer – and he was pressed on gender, pensions, VAT, tax and the NHS.

With a 22-point lead in the polls, Starmer has managed to avoid any huge gaffes and whilst he had some uncomfortable moments on Wednesday’s BBC head-to-head debate, which More in Common’s poll reckoned Starmer won 56-44 (YouGov had it 50-50), he avoided any ming vase incidents.

Underlying fundamentals look good for the Labour leader in a head-to-head with Sunak as well – see below – so there’s plenty to be happy about for him.

Labour are sending activists to deep blue Tory seats in a bid to take some top scalps, and the polls suggest this is working in their favour with the party on course for 400+ seats.

🔵 Conservatives

Rishi Sunak had his moments in the head-to-head debate, but it wasn’t enough to take the win (YouGov had it level, More in Common went for Starmer by a sizeable margin) and he remains miles behind, not helped by continuing pressure on Gamblegate (see below) and the bizarre posting of CCHQ.

Sunak has also responded directly to slurs used against him by Reform candidates in the last few moments, telling reporters “It hurts. And it makes me angry.”

Speaking to the pool, Sunak said: my two daughters have to see and hear Reform people who campaigned for Nigel Farage calling me an effing Paki”.

“When you see Reform candidates and campaigners, seemingly using racist and misogynistic language and opinions seemingly without challenge, I think it tells you something about the culture within the Reform Party.”

(Reform UK said those making “unacceptable comments” will no longer be part of Farage’s campaign.)

🔵 Reform UK

As referred to above, Reform campaigners were filmed by an undercover Channel 4 team making racist, homophobic and Islamophobic comments, including slurs against Rishi Sunak himself.

Nigel Farage has told the media that he’s dismayed by the comments, which are the second extremely negative story for the party after significant pushbacks on his comments regarding Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. A row is developing over volunteer Andrew Parker – who made the slur against the Prime Minister – with Farage and Reform figures claiming that Parker, an actor who says he got involved with Reform UK, might have been set up. No matter who’s believed in the matter (Channel 4 have pushed back against the claims), the more headlines stick around this new controversy, the worse the effect is going to be for Reform, who are still third place on the polls but losing ground (loss of 2-3 pts in the last week).

🟡 Liberal Democrats

Analysis from the FT and Telegraph shows Labour and the Lib Dems focusing their campaigns to avoid each other’s target seats, a helpful sign for punters who have backed the Lib Dems in blue wall seats and to win more than 60 constituencies at 10/11.

Tactical voting seems sure to play a big part for the LD challenge as well. A poll by Ipsos on Wednesday showed that nearly one in five voters say they are planning to vote for a certain party not because they support it but because it is the one most likely to defeat the Conservatives where they are – a record number at a General Election if repeated.

WILLIAM KEDJANYI 

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