VOTE 24

AUTHOR: Star Sports Content

VOTE 24: DNC 2024

In an election filled with twists and turns, the DNC is now underway, writes WILLIAM KEDJANYI.

Since the last blog we’ve seen Kamala Harris pick Tim Walz as her running mate, beating Josh Shapiro to Veepstakes glory, the market has switched with Harris now leading Trump, more swing state polling has flooded in, and we’ve got new dates for debates between not only Harris and Trump, but also Walz and JD Vance.

Here’s the latest betting for the US Presidency:

🗳️ Kamala Harris: 5/6 (from 4/5)
🗳️ Donald Trump: evens (from 11/10)

And a countdown to Polling Day:



🔵 The Finale Begins!

The final night of the DNC is underway – watch live here!

Here’s a rough schedule (with a lot of Honourables):

12:00 AM (Midnight) BST

The Honorable Marcia L. Fudge
The Honorable Ted W. Lieu
The Honorable Tammy Baldwin
The Honorable Katherine Clark
The Honorable Joe Neguse
The Honorable Leonardo Williams
The Honorable Raja Krishnamoorthi
The Honorable Bob Casey
The Honorable Elizabeth Warren
The Honorable Jason Crow
The Honorable Elissa Slotkin
The Honorable Pat Ryan
Reverend Al Sharpton
Joint Remarks from representatives of “the Central Park Five”
The Honorable Dr. Yusef Salaam
Korey Wise
Raymond Santana
Kevin Richardson

1:00 AM BST

Amy Resner
Karrie Delaney
Lisa Madigan
Marc H. Morial
Nathan Hornes
Tristan Snell
The Honorable Maura Healey
Courtney Baldwin
The Honorable Deb Haaland
John Russell
The Honorable Maxwell Alejandro Frost
The Honorable Colin Allred
Joint Remarks on “A New American Chapter”
Anya Cook, Florida
Craig Sicknick, New Jersey
Gail DeVore, Colorado
Juanny Romero, Nevada
Eric, Christian, and Carter Fitts, North Carolina

2:00 AM

National Anthem: The Chicks
Host Introduction: Kerry Washington
Joint Remarks
Meena Harris
Ella Emhoff
Helena Hudlin
D.L. Hughley
The Honorable Chris Swanson
A Conversation on Gun Violence
The Honorable Lucy McBath
Abbey Clements
Kim Rubio
Melody McFadden
Edgar Vilchez
The Honorable Gabrielle Giffords
Performance: P!NK
The Honorable Mark Kelly
The Honorable Leon E. Panetta
The Honorable Ruben Gallego
The Honorable Gretchen Whitmer

3:00 AM BST

Eva Longoria
The Honorable Adam Kinzinger
Maya Harris
The Honorable Roy Cooper
The Honorable Kamala Harris

🔵 Wednesday Night Lights

The effect of Vice Presidential picks on elections is hotly contested – ask Republican strategists of the time how they felt about Sarah Palin, for one particular example – but running-mates are often little known when selected and many have not had a particular impact.

However, Tim Walz may already have made a bigger impact than most running mates by kickstarting the ‘weird’ line of attack to describe the GOP, and overnight he gave a keynote address (a ‘pep talk’ in his words) to accept the nomination for Vice President.

This was always going to be an important moment for the Democratic campaign, but especially so given how tight the race is and how unknown Walz is. According to Ipsos, 86% of Americans didn’t know Walz before he was chosen as running mate – so a feature speech to the DNC was going to be as big as it gets for him. See the full speech below.

Speaking as someone who hadn’t heard of Walz before ‘that’ Morning Joe appearance, it’s hard to imagine a better introduction to the public at large. A large part of the thinking behind choosing Walz over Governor Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, along with plenty of others who were in the Veepstakes running, was his natural speaking ability, friendly appeal, and his background as a teacher, football coach, an Army National Guard enlisted soldier and noted family man too.

Walz leaned heavily into his life story – a common theme amongst DNC speakers this week, and the same approach that Doug Emhoff used – going back to his high school football coaching days (“Never underestimate a public school teacher”), using metaphors a plenty (“We’re down a field goal. But we’re on offense and we’ve got the ball. We’re driving down the field. And, boy, do we have the right team.”) and hitting the mark with repeated mentions of “neighbor” (seven times), “school” (eight) and “freedom” (nine).

There were also passionate references to an impressive record in Minnesota – where Walz has had to fight against and work with Republicans – with his best line (in the opinion of yours truly) coming when he made reference to his wins on free school meals:

“As Governor of Minnesota, I made sure students are fed breakfast and lunch – no questions asked. While other states banned books from their schools, we banished hunger from ours.”

The most emotional moment of the speech came when Walz’s 17-year-old son leaped to his feet in tears and clapped while yelling “That’s my dad – something which has already gone viral on social media and could be one of the more memorable images of the election.

🔵 Freedom, DNC style

It was another wild night at the DNC, where the big surprise guest was Oprah Winfrey, who made a surprise hometown appearance to lend another celebrity endorsement and take a shot at JD Vance’s childless cat ladies’ jibe.

Winfrey described herself as an independent whilst making unity a big feature of her speech. There are no prizes for guessing which the leading takeaway from the speech will be:

“When a house is on fire, we don’t ask about the homeowner’s race or religion, we don’t wonder who their partner is or how they voted. No. We just try to do the best we can to save them.” And if the place happens to belong to a childless cat lady, well, we try to get that cat out, too.”

Former President Bill Clinton turned the age question on Donald Trump (“I have no idea how many more of these I’ll be able to come to….. I’m still younger than Donald Trump.”) whilst also warning the crowd that a tough fight lies ahead, telling attendees that “You should never underestimate your adversary.”

The Democrats have leant hard into freedom over the last month or so and yesterday’s theme at the DNC saw them explore differing angles to this. You had speakers tying this into reproductive rights (Alexis McGill Johnson, president, Planned Parenthood Action Fund), Project 2025 (Colorado Gov. Jared Polis), and education (Gov. Tim Walz) to name a few.

The parents of a 23-year-old American taken hostage by Hamas during the Oct. 7 attack on Israel, pleading for the release of the dozens of people who continue to be held captive in Gaza. Elsewhere, there was also much anger from the uncommitted Democratic delegates, who saw a request to allow Palestinian Americans to speak on stage rejected. With a ceasefire nowhere close, this split will continue to be an issue for the Democrats although Harris is suffering less than Biden was as a result of the war.

Last but never least, the Kamala HQ team enjoyed themselves with this – expect to see more of these highlights in TV ads:

🔵 Night 3

And we are live!

The theme for tonight is “A Fight for Our Freedoms,” which will push Harris as a defender of American freedoms whilst protesting Trump as a threat to the same principles. We shall hear from Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, as he officially accepts the vice presidential nomination, former President Bill Clinton, and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

The rumoured full list of speakers is:

– Sen. Cory Booker
– Sen. Chris Murphy
– Sen. Cortez Masto
– Sen. Klobuchar
– Rep. Hakeem Jeffries
– Rep. Nancy Pelosi
– Gov. Wes Moore
– Gov. Josh Shapiro
– Secy. Buttigieg
– Fmr. Pres. Clinton
– Gov Tim Walz

The action kicks off at about midnight and will go through until 4am – check back for a YouTube link showing the main stage!

BREAKING NEWS 📡

It is so over for RFK. According to MSNBC, at least. He was 100/1 with Star at the time of writing and at 5% in the polls after a long series of shambolic moments for his campaign – how will his endorsement of Trump change the race? Here’s a sharp and quick analysis from Adam Carlson:

Whilst this isn’t necessarily good news for Harris – the Democrats had been running the evening headlines and this will puncture that – it could be much worse. All the momentum had gone from the RFK campaign a long time ago, and his failure to make the first debate proved to be a hammer blow

This would have hurt much more if it had come earlier in the campaign. RFK failed to make the debate, has suffered two major scandals since, was a less attractive third party option against Harris than Biden and he may also prove to be an easy target for Democratic strategists who have endorsed the weird message. What’s weirder than a man who admitted that, a decade ago, he dumped a dead bear cub in New York City’s Central Park and staged the scene to make it look like a bicyclist had run over the animal?

Meanwhile, in the polls:

I’m not sure if this will be changing any minds but Guess Who’s running what might be the world’s largest unscientific poll!

📺 Night 2

Night 2 of the DNC was a barnstormer, with Michelle and Barack Obama giving two memorable speeches that dominated the agenda.

Former first Lady Michelle Obama was first up, arguably giving the best performance of the whole convention so far as she roused a much hyped-crowd, taking personal aim at Donald Trump’s comments so-called “Black jobs” – “Who’s going to tell him that the job he’s currently seeking might just be one of those Black jobs?” – taking aim at the birtherism movement that he led through Obama’s presidency (“See, his limited, narrow view of the world made him feel threatened by the existence of two hardworking, highly educated, successful people who happened to be Black”) and warning deliriously happy Democrats that electing Harris was “still going to be an uphill battle.”

It’s in full below and well worth watching.

Straight afterwards was Barack Obama, who was – in his own words “the only person stupid enough to speak” after Michelle Obama, although judging by the crowd’s reaction none of them cared a jot.

Obama – who has a long history of feuding with Trump – went for the jugular on the Republican nominee, referencing his struggle to cope with the fact he must run against Harris rather than Biden.

“It has been a constant stream of gripes and grievances that’s actually been getting worse now that he’s afraid of losing to Kamala…. There’s the childish nicknames, the crazy conspiracy theories, this weird obsession with crowd sizes… it just goes on and on and on.”

There was also a marked dig at crowd sizes and one rather sharp moment when he made a point about size. On this one, if you know… you know. The full speech is below:

🎙️ Turn Up at the Roll Call

There was a Roll Call – a ceremonial process to officially nominate Harris/Walz as the nominees, where representatives from each state declare their backing for the ticket – and for those who did not get the chance to see it, I can only describe it as Eurovision meets Dancing With The Stars and the VMA’s.

The must see moment features Lil Jon, representing Georgia. I can’t do it justice, so just watch it below.

🔵 Meanwhile…..

Whilst all this was going down, Vice President Kamala Harris held a raucous rally Tuesday night in Milwaukee, at exactly the same venue where former President Donald Trump accepted the Republican nomination just a month ago. The arena was packed to the rafters, in a move that may have a little something to do with the a certain politician’s reference to crowd sizes (having watched both conventions, yours truly must state that he didn’t see a notable difference in the crowds, although the Democrats certainly seemed louder).

In full aesthetics mode, the Democrats beamed Harris and Walz back to the DNC, where she accepted the nomination:

Second Gentleman Doug Emhoff is a name that many people are likely to learn more of, especially in the UK over the next few months, and we got an introduction to him overnight, with a personal video – crafted with the help of his ex-wife Kerstin Emhoff, who is a major supporter of the pair – and a speech touching on his relationship story with Harris.

It touched on the hopeful vibes that the Democrats have been trying to push alongside attacks on Trump, but is also notable given the many attacks on the Emhoff/Harris family from some leading right-wing commentators. Family – already playing a big role in the Harris v Trump match-up – is going to be a campaign tactic that isn’t going to go away.

Something else worth noting – we’re going to see a lot of the Never Trump community in Democrat circles. Former Trump communications director and press secretary Stephanie Grisham, Trump voter and Alabama resident Kyle Sweetser, and Republican Mayor John Giles of Mesa, Arizona all made appearances and with the GOP already pushing line that suggest Harris is a far-leftist (or a communist in Trump’s case), expect to see more pushback.

Something else of interest: TV ratings for both conventions. Here’s the overnight for the first night, before the Obama double act:

❓ RFK, RF-Gone?

Brain Worms. Bear cubs. Cash money – or a lack of it. The Robert F Kennedy Jr campaign has tanked – At the end of last month, RFK Jr.’s campaign had $3.9 million cash on hand but owed $3.4 million – and with only memes and ridiculous past secrets making headlines, there’s little hope of him making a splash and there’s now talk that he may drop out.

That comes from his running mate Nicole Shanahan, who told the “Impact Theory” they were debating whether to remain in the race or pull the plug and throw their support behind Donald Trump.

Shanahan told that same podcast that call runs the risk of a Kamala Harris and [Tim] Walz presidency because we draw more votes from Trump, somehow draw more votes from Trump,” but an endorsement of Trump and Vance from a candidate polling 5% despite everything would be a fillip for the GOP.

There have been moves in the betting markets due to this – Star are now 5/6 Harris and evens on Trump whilst US bettors are keen on backing RFK to drop out and endorse Trump. Trump is also now an ever so slight favourite on the exchanges.

🔵 The Late Late Show

The feature speaker of Night 1 was none other than President Biden himself, who came after Hillary Clinton, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and first lady Jill Biden. It was certainly a case of the late show, with Biden not speaking until well after 11pm on the East Coast, or 4am for those obsessives like yours truly who stayed up to watch the whole thing. Sleep was… in short supply.

Biden, who was very much on his best form in front of a packed and adoring arena, offered the sort of passionate defence of his presidency that will be crucial in the upcoming battle for the White House in an emotional 48 minute address that saw him tear up as he joined his daughter Ashley on stage. Here are some highlights:

The speech went down brilliantly in the hall, although there has been a contentious debate amongst US political insiders and obsessives about just why the president went on stage so late – alongside a lot of grumbling from people on the ground about getting into the venue (try it with a whiteboard and three pronged stand that doesn’t work) and the late finishes (easy enough for them to say when Day 1 ended at 11.30pm their time, and not 4am here!).

There was a surprise at the end – Kamala Harris showed up at the end to thank Biden for his “historic leadership, lifetime of service to our nation and for all you continue to do” in a short speech, whilst imploring the audience to come together and move forward with “optimism, hope and faith”.

📺 Night 1 Highlights

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez delivered a star turn, giving a passionate endorsement of Kamala Harris and delivering a sharp put-down of Donald Trump: “I, for one, am tired of hearing about how a two-bit union buster thinks of himself as more of a patriot than the woman who fights every single day to lift working people out from under the boots of greed trampling on our way of life.”

Raphael Warnock went for an attack on Donald Trump, taking aim at a fundraising push which saw him selling Bibles for $60. “I saw him holding the Bible and endorsing a Bible as if it needed his endorsement. He should try reading it!”

Hillary Clinton – remember her? – praised Joe Biden for bringing “dignity and decency” back to the White House and received a huge reception with a minute of applause and several ovations.

Thousands of marchers – although less than organisers had anticipated – took to the streets of Chicago, with several arrests after dozens broke through a security fence. They were acknowledged by Biden in the evening, who said that the protesters “out on the street have a point.”

Governor Andy Beshear, of Kentucky made an impassioned plea about the importance of abortion rights, a key part of the Democratic narrative. There was also a very emotional segment where women who had been personally affected by reproductive rights shared their stories.

By the numbers:

Thanks to the Trump campaign staffer who went through all six hours of last night’s feature coverage to track the amount of mentions that the Republican candidate received. Here’s a tally of certain word counts, taken from their Press Release:

“Democrats have no vision or solutions to our nation’s problems. Last night’s convention was solely focused on President Trump.

They would rather talk about President Trump than the problems facing our nation due to Kamala Harris’ failures.”

Mentions last night:

“Trump” – 147 times
“Border” – 8 times
“Economy” – 27 times
“Inflation” — 3 times
“Prices” — 5 times
“Crime” — 6 times

📊 Poll Alert

Since our last update, we have more data on the Harris v Trump match up, both on a national level and a swing state level. The polls are tight as a whole – Harris has made gains by bringing back voters who couldn’t bring themselves to support Joe Biden, and also finds herself on the right side of a widening gender gap between women and men – but she will need to make further gains still and her leads are generally within the margin of error.

There are many forecasts and polls, and three models I’m following currently have these numbers:

Silver Bulletin (Nate Silver):
Kamala Harris: 46.7%
Donald Trump: 44.3%

The Economist:
Kamala Harris: 49%
Donald Trump: 51%

Race to the White House (Logan Phillips):
Kamala Harris: 54.1% (286.1 Projected Electoral Votes)
Donald Trump: 45.5% (251.1 Projected Electoral Votes)

There may be a DNC bounce after this week – Harris has enjoyed momentum since she entered the race which could mean she gets less of a jump than would be expected – and we should get better data all the time about her voter coalition, especially how she’s performing amongst nonwhite voters (at the time of writing she’s behind where Biden’s 2020 voter performance with Latino voters (-4) and black voters (-12).

🎙️ Night 2

Who’s speaking this evening?

The feature speaker will be President Barack Obama, who’s set to deliver the keynote address. He’ll be joined by former first lady Michelle Obama according to CBS News, Bernie Sanders and Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker, who was once in the running to be the Vice Presidential pick.

The main speakers will start at midnight, so be ready for a late night if you’re joining us! We’ll have recaps of the best action right here.

🔴 Meanwhile, in the GOP…. 

Trump and the GOP have struggled to adjust to facing Harris rather than Biden, and the mood of the two campaigns has differed markedly. However there’s a long way to go and there are signs that the anti-Harris message is coming into focus – mainly on immigration, crime, the current White House record and the economy.

Both Trump and Vance are on the campaign trail speaking about crime this evening, with Trump speaking in Howell, Michigan at 8pm (BST) and Vance holding a news conference at 6pm in Kenosha, Wisconsin.

WILLIAM KEDJANYI 

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