VOTE 24: It’s on!

The speculation is over and the date is now set. The United Kingdom will go to the polls on the 4th July, writes WILLIAM KEDJANYI.

The earliest signals came from our markets – a July election was a 7/1 shot yesterday morning, and 4/11 before it was effectively confirmed at 4.15 that there would be an election, with few really doubting that Sunak’s 5pm announcement would be to announce he was going to the country.

In going ‘early’ – many had expected that an election would take place in October, November, or later Rishi Sunak has surprised many in his own party despite weeks of fevered speculation in Westminster about a potential date. Stay tuned to this blog for live reaction, odds and coverage as the official General Election campaign gets underway, and more reflections on what today means for the country.

🌧️ Things Can Only Get Wetter

In six weeks we might have forgotten this, but Rishi Sunak and his team will hope that the election launch isn’t a sign of things to come. Battered by the rain that’s been deluging Westminster over the past two days, Sunak was quickly drenched whilst D:Ream’s Things Can Only Get Better, a metaphor so loud that even the greediest of sketch writers couldn’t have asked for it.

With Labour starting 20 points ahead, the Prime Minister will be hoping that Things Can Only Get Better, but he’s got a lot of work to do before then.

“Things Can Only Get Better” by D:Ream is drowning out Rishi Sunak’s speech calling a general election. pic.twitter.com/JQlU3zGgrf

— Scott Bryan (@scottygb) May 22, 2024

🔵 Tice and Tribulations

We’ve got another high-profile candidate confirmation – here’s a quick preview of Boston and Skegness:

🗳️ | GENERAL ELECTION

🔵 @KeejayOV3 looks at Richard Tice’s chances in Boston and Skegness!

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— Star Sports Bookmakers (@StarSports_Bet) May 23, 2024

🔵 Reform’s Campaign Launch

Reform launched their campaign today in London – where there were two interesting pieces of news. See below:

🗳️ | GENERAL ELECTION

🔵 @KeejayOV3 reflects on the Reform campaign launch:

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— Star Sports Bookmakers (@StarSports_Bet) May 23, 2024

⏰ Key Timings

If you’re planning on voting in the General Election, don’t forget these key dates:

⏲️ Register to vote: Tuesday 18 June at 23.59

⏲️ Applying for a Voter ID: Wednesday 26 June at 17:00

⏲️ Applying for a postal vote: Wednesday 19 June at 17.00

⏲️ Applying for a proxy vote: Wednesday 26 June at 17.00

📊 Who Will Be The Kings of Swing?

How have the polls changed over the course of previous campaigns? Analyst Dylan Difford has marked the changes in polling from previous elections:

📊 The Polls

Here’s the state of play regarding the polls (on Wednesday 22nd May), with averages taken from Sky News. The brackets indicate the range of the lowest and highest numbers each party has hit with a certain pollster:

🔴 Labour: 44.0% (41-47%)
🔵 Tories: 23.2% (20-27%)
🔵 Reform: 11.2% (8-14%)
🟡 Lib Dem: 9.6% (8-12%)
🟢 Greens: 6.7% (5-11%)
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 SNP: 2.7% (2-3%)

* In Scotland, Labour’s vote share now stands at 39% with YouGov, up five points from their previous poll in late April, shortly before Yousaf’s resignation. The SNP are now on 29% (-4), with the Labour and SNP vote shares being respectively their highest and lowest since the 2014 independence referendum.

🔵 Who Else But….

On my way to a certain TV studio in Westminster, I bumped into Nigel Farage. Here’s what he had to say – it was short and sweet….

🗳️ | GENERAL ELECTION

🔵 One of the biggest players in this upcoming election has his say – what does @Nigel_Farage think?

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— Star Sports Bookmakers (@StarSports_Bet) May 22, 2024

🔵 How many seats will the Tories keep?

The Tories have launched their campaign with an event at London’s ExCel, which seems a good point to check on on how many seats they’re expected to win/keep. Here’s the latest betting on their seat total at the time of writing (9.38pm on Wednesday).

0-49: 8/1
50-99: 11/4
100-149: 2/1
150-199: 11/4
200-249: 6/1
250-299: 14/1
300-349: 33/1
350-399: 100/1
400+: 400/1

🎥 Lights, Camera, Action – but for who?

Earlier today on our sister countdown blog for the Euros, the big broadcasters released their lineups for their football coverage. We know plenty about who will be involved politically too, but we don’t know who will have the biggest job of the night. Here’s our betting on who will host the BBC’s election coverage:

🎙️ Laura Kuenssberg: 6/4
🎙️ Clive Myrie: 7/4
🎙️ Sophie Raworth: 5/1
🎙️ Jo Coburn: 6/1
🎙️ Fiona Bruce: 7/1
🎙️ Victoria Derbyshire: 10/1
🎙️ David Dimbleby: 12/1
🎙️ Jeremy Vine: 16/1
🎙️ Amol Rajan: 20/1
🎙️ Christian Fraser: 20/1
🎙️ Nick Robinson: 20/1
🎙️ Rita Chakrabarti: 20/1
🎙️ Ben Brown: 25/1
🎙️ Adam Fleming: 33/1
🎙️ Chris Mason: 33/1
🎙️ Naga Munchetty: 33/1
🎙️ Nick Eardley: 33/1