WORLD CUP PREVIEW Sat: Argentina v Australia

This World Cup has seen plenty of incredible sporting stories come to life and another one is sure to continue when Argentina face Australia in their Last 16 meeting.

Argentina – 5/1 second favourites for World Cup glory before the tournament started with starsports.bet – were expected to make smooth progress through their group and took control of their game with Saudi Arabia through an early Lionel Messi penalty, but after having three goals ruled for offside, they were rocked by two goals in four minutes and the rest is now history.

The stakes were high against Mexico, when a moment of Messi magic gave them the breakthrough after a disjoined attacking performance, but they were much better against Poland when unlucky not to win by a far wider score line than 2-0.

Messi was still the heartbeat of the side – when is he not? – but Angel Di Maria picked a fine time to have an excellent performance Julian Alvarez was a constant threat, and Enzo Fernandez and Alexis MacAllister gave them a proper presence in midfield.

That sort of performance, where they won the shout count 23-4, the shots on target count 12-0 and the corner count 9-1, is what most pre-tournament backers, including those following our outright preview – would have hoped for and if they can continue in that vein, then hopes of a third World Cup are still realistic.

Traders’ view: “Argentina look to be finding their feet now in the tournament and it’s hard to see surprise qualifiers Australia causing them too many problems. Everything they do still goes through Messi and he’s 11/5 to score first. Julian Alvarez looked more of a threat since coming into the team and maybe the value at 16/5 to score first.”

Argentina v Australia
FIFA World Cup 2022 Last-16
19:00

LAST FIVE STATS

HEAD-TO-HEAD
SEP 2007 INTERNATIONAL FRIENDLY Australia 0-1 Argentina
JUN 2005 CONFERENDATIONS CUP Australia 2-4 Argentina

ARGENTINA
NOV 2022 INTERNATIONAL FRIENDLY Argentina 3-0 Jamaica
NOV 2022 INTERNATIONAL FRIENDLY UAE 0-5 Argentina
NOV 2022 WORLD CUP Argentina 1-2 Saudi Arabia
NOV 2022 WORLD CUP Argentina 2-0 Mexico
NOV 2022 WORLD CUP Poland 0-2 Argentina

AUSTRALIA
SEP 2022 FRIENDLY Australia 1-0 New Zealand
SEP 2022 FRIENDLY New Zealand 0-2 Australia
NOV 2022 WORLD CUP France 4-1 Australia
NOV 2022 WORLD CUP Australia 1-0 Tunisia

Outright backers may also have been pleasantly surprised to see them find Australia in the last 16 but they would be unwise to do so. The Socceroos’ couldn’t keep up their brilliant start against France as the World Champions put four past them, but they’ve been much improved in beating Tunisia and Denmark 1-0 to earn a spot here.

All of the players deserve credit but the improvement from Australia’s defence – especially Harry Souttar, who’d recovered from an ACL just in time to be here – has been outstanding with Milos Degenek, Kye Rowles and Aziz Behich all a much tighter unit to break down now.

Aaron Mooy, Riley McGree and Jackson Irvine both put in huge shifts against Tunisia and Denmark, and whilst Mitchell Duke and Riley McGree haven’t had much service so far, they’ve taken their opportunities to do so well and played an important part in defending from the front.

Australia will need to match those levels and more to pull off another upset here, but Argentina fans and backers could be in for a slightly more uncomfortable night than the odds suggest. Many will point to France’s opening 4-1 victory against Australia as a sign of the gulf between those two sides but Australia have tightened up significantly since then and could provide more resistance than Poland did on Wednesday.

Backing the outsides with a two goal start on the Asian handicap means that stakes would only be lost if Argentina won by three goals or more in regular time, and that may be the best way to play the game.

WILLIAM KEDJANYI

RECOMMENDED BETS

BACK Australia +2 on Asian Handicap 3pts at 4/6 (Latest Star Price ? CLICK TO BET NOW)

PROFIT/LOSS (WORLD CUP 2022): LOSS 22.78 points (after matches on Fri 2 Dec, includes TWO GOOD bonus on CAMEROON v SERBIA 28 Nov)
(Will include returns from both the OUTRIGHT and SPECIALS previews too)