VOTE 24

AUTHOR: Star Sports Content

VOTE 24: Crunch Week

It’s often said that a week is a long time in politics but for political bettors, it’s hard to think of a busier seven days, writes WILLIAM KEDJANYI.

We have the second round of voting for the Tory leadership race, whilst tonight we also have the first Harris-Trump Presidential Debate in the US, where the election is getting ever closer, with a market move towards Trump in recent days. Let’s first turn our attention to the Tory leadership contest – but stay tuned for analysis of the big debate later!

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🎥 Light Shines for Harris

Good afternoon all, and thanks to those of you who listened to our pre-debate spaces last night. We discussed all things election related – and you can find the recording below:

Trump and Harris went head to head last night, in a debate which saw plenty of barbs back and forth but one clear winner, that being Harris – who took the CNN snap poll of debate watchers 63-37%, and a J.L Partners poll of independents by 49-43%, with 8% responding that they don’t know.

It’s worth noting that the CNN poll’s results reflect opinions of the debate only among those voters who tuned into the debate – so they aren’t representative of the views of the full voting public – and debate watchers in the poll were 6 points likelier to be Republican-aligned than Democratic-aligned, making for an audience that’s about 4 percentage points more GOP-leaning than all registered voters nationally.

Here are some general takeaways from the debate in no particular order, after a second rewatch this morning

🔴 Donald Trump is more easily rattled than at any point in his political career. Harris bated him expertly – on his crowds at rallies, his critics in the Republican party, on the Central Park Five, his old alma mater, on his peace talks with the Taliban and much more. Whilst opportunities to exploit this may be few and far between – Trump has gone on an extensive schedule of touring and interviews but with friendly outlets in the main.

🔴 Trump’s message discipline – if he can find it – is going to play a key part in the closing stretch of this election. He didn’t manage to find it here – jumping at several traps Harris laid for him and also lacking clarity on several key occasions. Attacks on the border and cost of living can prove effective, but he will need to refine that message and stay on topic to do so.

🔵 Harris enjoyed a great night but will need to carry forward this momentum and keep on the front foot. A big interview – one on one – would be advisable in the next week or so. Given Trump’s erratic nature an interview will be a tougher test but it would offer a chance to advance her policy agenda and refer back to the events of the debate which can only offer help.

🔴 JD Vance continues to be a weakness for the Trump campaign. His poor favourable ratings have been noted for a while and deserve criticism for sharing wild and fake theories about immigrants in Ohio eating cats and dogs, but his past comments continue to a problem – nobody who’s being called out snidely by Taylor Swift is winning.

🎙️ The rules helped Harris. Her delivery was much more focused than Trump’s – he hit sharp talking points but too often he was rattled or off-key, and struggled to fill his time with anything of note.

🔵 Reproductive rights could well be the best issue for the Democrats in head-to-head clashes this year. Trump’s claims that abortions can take place after a baby has been born sounded as unhinged as one would expect whilst Harris was able to hit an emotional and forceful note with her response:

“You want to talk about this is what people wanted?” Harris said. “Pregnant women who want to carry a pregnancy to term, suffering from a miscarriage, being denied care in an emergency room because the health care providers are afraid they might go to jail, and she’s bleeding out in a car in the parking lot – she didn’t want that.”

One of the biggest moments of the election came afterwards when Taylor Swift endorsed Harris and Walz. Whilst celebrity endorsements do not decide elections, there’s no doubting Swift’s profile and her appeal to young women.

Of interest here: In March/April – the Beacon Center, a libertarian political think tank, found that 37% of registered Tennessee voters said they were Taylor Swift fans.

Of those who identified as fans, 12% said that if Taylor Swift endorsed a candidate for president or U.S. Senate, it would make them more likely to vote for that candidate. By comparison, 5% of fans said it would make them less likely to vote for the Swift-backed candidate.

Highlights:

🔵 Round 2

We’ve had our second elimination from the Tory leadership race, as we bid farewell to Mel Stride! Here are the round 2 results:

🔵 Robert Jenrick: 33
🔵 Kemi Badenoch: 28
🔵 James Cleverly: 21
🔵 Tom Tugendhat: 21
🔵 Mel Stride: 16 – eliminated!

And here’s William Kedjanyi’s analysis:

Current Prices:

🔵 Robert Jenrick: ?
🔵 Kemi Badenoch: ?
🔵 James Cleverly: ?
🔵 Tom Tugendhat: ?

🎥 Crunch Time in Philly:

One of the biggest moments of the US election so far takes place tonight at 2am UK time, when Kamala Harris and Donald Trump face each other in a head-to-head debate on ABC – which will be broadcast on Channel 4, BBC One, BBC News and Sky. We’ll put in a live link for you to watch when it’s happening.

Before then, don’t miss our special Space with William Kedjanyi, Adrian Smith, and Pratik Chougle of Star Spangled gamblers!

It goes without saying that debates often play a big part in Presidential elections but the dynamics of this race make things even more important. Vice President Harris – who has only been the nominee for a month or so, after Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the race – had enjoyed a surge of momentum but is slipping slightly in polls, with Siena/The New York Times showing her a point behind Trump nationally.

Democratic enthusiasm had surged behind her candidacy, but a lack of interviews and on record conversations has become noticed, and a sizeable amount of voters want to hear more from her – 28% of respondents in the big Siena/NYT poll indicated they needed to know more about her – and other results suggest that the GOP may have found something resembling an effective strategy to define her negatively. Trump – in a result that may amaze some of you reading this – was considered to be closer to the centre politically.

This race is on a knife edge. In three major polling averages — RealClearPolitics, FiveThirtyEight and Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin, which each use different methodologies — each of the seven states both campaigns are contesting are within 3 points in either direction. Harris’ largest lead is in Wisconsin (2.7 points in the FiveThirtyEight average), while Trump’s biggest advantage is in Arizona (2.1 points in the Silver Bulletin average). Remember that Biden won in 2020 by around 44,000 votes in Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin.

Formguide

🔴Trump: ? to win debate

Trump had one of his best ever debate performances – by his standards at least – when allowing a crumbling Biden to collapse earlier this year. He’s improved since he first took to the stage in the 2016 GOP primaries – remember them? Although he was soundly beaten on polls by Clinton in the first 2016 debate, he was sharper in the second debate, when his improvement was acknowledged although he was still well behind in the market at that point.

Biden beat him in the two 2020 debates – one was cancelled by COVID – but a vastly diminished Biden was no match for Trump earlier in the year, when Trump stayed cool and on message despite lying at an incredible rate.

🔵 Harris: ? to win debate

Had a disastrous 2020 debate in the primaries – her argument with Joe Biden over bussing became a viral moment – but she performed better against Mike Pence in the one and only VP debate (a head to head, rather than a wide-open field of contenders). According to a pair-up between 538 and IPSOS, Debate watchers were more impressed with Harris’s performance than Pence’s, with 69% saying her performance was “very good” or “somewhat good,” compared to 60% who said the same for him.

📊 MRP Alert

The excellent team at Focaldata have just released their first MRP of the US election – indeed it’s the first MRP anyone has released on the election. Here are the results:

🔵 Meet The Tories

Here are the remaining contenders left in the race:

🔵 Robert Jenrick (MP for Newark and former secretary of state for housing and communities)

Has held several ministerial roles but most known for being former immigration minister, who quit Rishi Sunak’s government when it was revealed that a piece of legislation introduced to save the bill did not allow the government to override the international laws that have stopped the government sending asylum seekers to central Africa.

His campaign has been based on the need to win back Reform voters and he’s quickly become a favourite of key figures on the right of the party – he has backing from Ester McVey and Mark Francois – whilst he’s also been on the front foot regarding immigration. His campaign has the most confidence – his allies told HuffPost that he’s “nailed on” to make it to the final two candidates in the race to be the next Tory leader.

Round 1 votes: 28

Odds with Star: ?

🔵 Kemi Badenoch (MP for Saffron Walden and shadow secretary of state for housing communities and local government)

Long touted by many in the party on the right and described by some as a culture warrior on key issues, Badenoch is the former business secretary who has long been a major contender for this role according to the markets. Has a number of ex-ministerial endorsements, including Laura Trott, Clare Coutinho, Jesse Norman and Andrew Bowie. A strong performer in public polling – she has topped three members polls including two from YouGov, and is competitive in all head to heads.

Round 1 votes: 22

Odds with Star: ?

🔵 James Cleverly (MP for Braintree and shadow home secretary)

The most experienced contender of the six, having been Home Secretary at the point of the election, and also a former foreign secretary, education secretary and party chairman. His time at the head of the party will help with grassroots members and his pitch as the party’s great unifier could help him through the votes this week, although it’s possible that being moved to the Home Office could provide a blow to his aspirations given the party’s struggles with immigration.

Round 1 votes: 21

Odds with Star: ?

🔵 Tom Tugendhat (MP for Tonbridge and Malling and shadow minister for security)

Regarded highly amongst the One Nation group of moderate Tory MP’s, and perhaps the favoured candidate of the Centre of the Tory Party. Whilst no wing of the Tories remained unscathed at the election, eight of the 24 members of the “One Nation” caucus kept their seats, the five Scottish Conservatives are also on the more moderate wing and if anything the balance of the party went slightly more centrist due to the amount of losses.

That could put him at an advantage in early voting and whilst on paper he’s to the left of the membership as a whole, he’s polled reasonably well – in the last three surveys he’s hit 19, 16, and 15% – and has room to grow. Has the backing of leading party figures in the shape of Damian Green and Steve Baker, but both are ex-MP’s.

Round 1 votes: 17

Odds with Star: ?

🔵 Round 1

The second round of voting will take place today – here’s William Kedjanyi:

Round 1 Results:

🔵 Robert Jenrick: 28
🔵 Kemi Badenoch: 22
🔵 James Cleverly: 21
🔵 Tom Tugendhat: 17
🔵 Mel Stride: 16
🔵 Priti Patel: 14 – Eliminated

WILLIAM KEDJANYI 

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