STAR NFL PREVIEW Sun: Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills

The Divisional Round of games closes with the most anticipated game of the week and possibly the season so far for many in game which is a rematch from the regular season but features the tightest spread of the weekend, writes ANDY RICHMOND.

It’s hard to ignore or set aside the main narrative surrounding this game and that’s the one that sees the two main MVP candidates Ravens QB Lamar Jackson and Bills QB Josh Allen going head-to-head.

It would be a shame to just base the game on that storyline though as there are plenty of other areas to explore and discuss in what is a fascinating matchup between two teams who perennially appear to be attempting to topple the Chiefs from their AFC perch. As already mentioned this game is a rematch of a Week 4 contest that saw the Ravens take over and win convincingly 35-10 in Baltimore. That game was never a contest. It was 21-3 at halftime and 28-10 heading into the fourth quarter. However, a lot has changed since then and there are plenty of scenarios where this has the potential to live up to the hype and be a lot closer and harder to select the winner despite that rather one-sided first game.

For a start there is the weather with temperatures expected to dip significantly (it could be as cold as -12C) and this time around the Bills are playing at home and defending a 9-0 record at Orchard Park this season. Add in the fact that it’s often dangerous to take early season regular season games as templates as to what will happen in the post-season and its best to take a look at this game with fresh eyes and a clean slate to work with.

One element of the Ravens game that won’t change though will be that they will want to run the ball. The Ravens continue to raise the bar for their running game, which set a regular season record with 5.76 yards per attempt. The previous mark lasted six decades after the 1963 Browns averaged 5.74. In eight career playoff games, RB Derrick Henry has surpassed 150 yards rushing four times. That’s tied with Hall of Famer Terrell Davis for the most in NFL postseason history.

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Both teams are battle hardened though for this tough clash. The Ravens have played 11 games this season against teams in the 2024 playoffs, the most in the league. They have an 8-3 record in those games. Buffalo have gone 3-3 in the same scenario, but they have wins against the Chiefs and Lions,  who were the favourites for the Super Bowl in each conference (*The Lions were defeated last night by the Commanders). The Divisional Round has been a recent thorn for Buffalo. They have lost in this round in three consecutive seasons, the past two at home. Their last win in the Divisional Round came in 2020, at home against the Ravens – could history repeat itself?

If Ravens QB Lamar Jackson is missing his main wide receiver in Zay Flowers then we can assume that the Ravens will want to establish the run via Jackson and Derrick Henry although importantly Buffalo will have linebackers Matt Milano and Terrel Bernard returning after they missed the first game plus nickel corner Taron Johnson will also return. All three of them are important to the Buffalo run defence and are healthy now. It’s true that the perceived weakness of the Buffalo defence is in the middle of the field but the run defence won’t be as bad as it was in that Week 4 road game.

Henry now has four consecutive games of 20 or more carries, 138 or more yards on the ground and as always he’ll look to get stronger and stronger as the game goes on and as much as Jackson can affect and control this game it’s arguable that Henry is the real difference maker on this Ravens offence. Going back to Jackson he’s faced a Sean McDermott-led Bills defence four times, never throwing for more than 162 yards in those games, but he was hyper-efficient in the first matchup this season between these teams and it goes without staying that he’s dangerous with his legs but the Bills can’t be too passive against him.

With Flowers missing it could be a struggle for the remaining Ravens wide receivers led by Rashod Bateman who looks as though he’ll draw the coverage of Bills top CB Christian Benford and if the Ravens are to move the ball through the air it’s their dual TE threat of Mark Andrews and Isiah Likely that appeal more. The 2024’s Bills yielded the league’s 12th-most catches to tight ends (92) and Likely caught 3 of 4 targets with a team-high 53 yards on Saturday. Whenever Baltimore has been missing a pass catcher, Likely has seen a bump in usage and if Flowers is missing once again the Likely comes very much into the equation again.

Offensively the Bills are adaptable, being comfortable in dominating a time-of-possession battle but equally happy enough to open the offence up when they have to. That’s helped by having one of the best quarterbacks in the game in the shape of Josh Allen although it should be pointed out that his numbers historically against the Ravens leave a lot to be desired. Allen is 81-of-156 (52%) passing for 819 yards (5.3 YPA) and a 3:1 TD-to-INT ratio in five meetings with the Ravens. Like his counterpart Jackson, Allen is very able to use his legs in the offence and often appears to put the Bills offence “on his back.” Allen has three games of double-digit carries during the regular season, which came against the Chiefs in Week 11 (12 carries for 55 yards and a score), the Rams in Week 14 (10 carries for 82 yards and three scores), and the Lions in Week 15 (11 carries for 68 yards and two scores).

On paper Baltimore has an elite run defence that should be able to slow down Buffalo’s run-heavy early-down offence which along with Allen will have James Cook and Ty Johnson to contend with. The Wild Card Round was also the first time since Week 10 in which Cook saw 20 running back opportunities or more, taking 23 carries for 120 yards and a score. The pure rushing matchup against the Ravens appears to be a tough one, considering they held opposing backfields to 1.66 yards before contact per attempt (fourth fewest), 3.5 yards per carry (fewest), and 18.7 fantasy points per game (fifth fewest) during the regular season. However, the Broncos had an elite run defence on paper, too, and that didn’t stop the Bills from running for 210 yards on 44 total rushes in their wild-card matchup.

In the aerial scenario the Bills have plenty of options, in fact you could say too many and it’s hard to unravel the options which lacks some very capable pass catchers but lacks a real alpha wide receiver. The receivers have a very situational usage in the Bills offence and it can be very frustrating to work out who is going to be the “main man” (if there is one) on the day. Khalil Shakir is the most dependable/reliable pass catcher in the Bills rotation as he’s had over 20% of the team targets in 8 straight games, with a team-high 25.1% of the team targets since Week 7. Shakir caught 4 of 5 targets for 62 yards when these teams played in Week 4. Playing 69% of his snaps from the slot, Shakir gets some matchup leverage again. The Ravens allow 8.4 yards per target (20th) and a 5.7% touchdown rate to slot receivers (17th). It is hard to nail down which Buffalo wide receiver will make an impact outside of Shakir since all of Amari Cooper, Keon Coleman, Mack Hollins, and Curtis Samuel rotate into the game. Cooper and Coleman would be two candidates if the Bills want to take some deep shots as the Ravens have allowed a 37.7% completion rate (22nd) on deep targets to receivers, allowing 26 receptions (29th) on throws 20 yards or further downfield to receivers while surrendering 8 touchdowns (27th) on those throws. Don’t rule out Allen taking some deep shots if they need to a game which could see some back-and-forth.

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Both of these offences averaged more than 30 points per game in the regular season while both defences allowed exactly 20.8 points per game (tied for eighth) and that gives this game a wide range of outcomes. The two run games will be given a lot of credence and importance in the outcome of this game and rightly so but it may just be the crucial passing downs that decide the game and it’s the Bills and Allen with their array of receivers at home that just give them the edge in a game that will be a whole lot closer and tougher to call than the contest between the pair earlier in the season.

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