STAR NFL PREVIEW Sun: Philadelphia Eagles @ Kansas City Chiefs

It’s only Week 2 and we already have a Super Bowl rematch as the Eagles go to the Chiefs and we can only hope that this is a closer spectacle that we got back in February when the Chiefs trailed 24-0 at halftime, and 34-0 late in the third quarter, before a flurry of late scores resulted in a more respectable 40-22 final margin, writes ANDY RICHMOND.

The lopsided defeat last February denied Kansas City an opportunity at an historic third straight championship, and it left Mahomes and Co. vowing to get some revenge this season. Things can go west fast in the NFL and with a receiving corps that has been decimated by injuries and suspensions and a backfield that is a bit of a mess, Mahomes may just have to don his Superman costume to keep the Chiefs from opening the season 0-2.

Chiefs head coach Andy Reid has not started a season 0-2 since 2014, which was also the last time the Chiefs missed the playoffs and that’s the situation they face after they opened their season in Brazil with a defeat to the Chargers (27-21) that lacked any of their usual sparkle. Mahomes has not been on a team that started 0-2 since 2011, his sophomore season in high school. The Chiefs know what it’s like to be the reigning champion, the team that opponents love to hunt for an impressive victory, the team with a target on their backs. On Sunday, the Chiefs will be the hunters, hosting the Eagles for a game they hope will result in a revenge-inspired win.

This statistic may at least give the Chiefs some hope. This is the fourth Super Bowl rematch in Week 1 or 2 of a season. Only one team has ever won the Super Bowl and the rematch, which was the Broncos against the Panthers (2015 Super Bowl, 2016 Week 1). Facing the Eagles won’t be easy though and no easier with the state of the Chiefs roster right now, Philadelphia dealt with the Cowboys in their seasonal opener and they have won seven straight games and 17 of 18 overall.

Not much has changed for the Eagles then since they last played the Chiefs and their offence and offensive plan remains much the same and why should it when QB Jalen Hurts has had plenty of success against the Chiefs DC Steve Spagnuolo who has approached his meetings with Hurts and the Eagles offence in a rather more passive manner than his usual modus operandi on defence blitzing Hurts at a lower rate in each matchup as a byproduct, going from a 35.7% blitz rate in the first Super Bowl to a 32.1% rate and 27.6% rate in the follow-up meetings. The opposite was true in Week 1 against the Chargers and their QB Justin Herbert where the Chiefs blitzed at the 4th highest rate in the league playing a high rate of man coverage. This is what we have seen from them consistently over the last few years although that philosophy saw their pass defence have a rough start to the season allowing 9.4 yards per attempt (28th) and 304 passing yards (30th).

If they revert to playing in their more usual defensive style against the Eagles it significantly increases the likelihood of the Eagles downfield passing game opening up in Week 2.

It also opens the door for Jalen Hurts to make some big plays with his legs as Kansas City’s man coverage will leave open running lanes when quarterbacks break contain, as evidenced last week when Justin Herbert sealed the game on a late scramble. The Cowboys adopted the passive approach last week and that resulted in Hurts being able to dink-and-dunk his way down the field (only 34.8% of his passes travelled 5 or more yards in the air, the lowest rate in the league in Week 1) and that allowed Hurts to scramble more than ever but that’s not to say that we won’t get a large dose of Saquon Barkley. Barkley logged 22 touches against Dallas handling 78.6% of the backfield touches for 84 yard, modest by his high standard but it’s likely we could see a similar workload here for Barkley especially if the Chiefs revert to passive mode on defence.

The way that the Cowboys played on defence last week dictated that the Eagles pass catchers had a very quiet time of things. A.J. Brown was an afterthought in the offence in Week 1, catching 1 pass for 8 yards, which came on the final drive of the game. However, that could change this week if we see more aggressive defence from the Chiefs especially as seems likely the Eagles are missing TE Dallas Goedert, with Goedert off the field over his career, Hurts has targeted Brown 27.3% of the time. DeVonta Smith also fell victim to the game script/scenario against Dallas catching all 3 of his targets for only 16 yards. Smith was targeted on 9.4% of his routes, matching his lowest rate since the team acquired Brown. Comparing Smith against Brown in this matchup it’s the former who has been more successful with stat lines of 7-100-0 (9 targets), 6-99-0 (8 targets), and 4-69-1 (5 targets).

While the Chiefs have historically been very good against wide receivers, tending to funnel receiving production to opposing tight ends and running backs, that has been a function of how they play teams other than the Eagles on defence. Nothing from Week 1 would suggest that the Eagles can or will throw with abandon against the Chiefs especially if Kansas City revert to type on defence when they play Philadelphia but should they become more aggressive then the Eagles have the talent at wide receiver to hurt them badly.

Even when the Chiefs have had a full complement of offensive skill players we have seen Mahomes put the Chiefs on his back and carry them, well it looks like they need him more than ever now. The backfield looks to be operating on a rotation basis with Isiah Pacheco, Kareem Hunt, and rookie Brashard Smith – all of whom were unimpressive in the season opener behind an offensive line that was sound enough but hardly impressive against the Chargers. The Eagles did demonstrate some vulnerability on the ground versus Dallas but then they were without DT Jalen Carter who was ejected from the game before the first snap.

Mahomes is also dealing with a much depleted receiving corps and missing his two best young WRs in Rashee Rice (suspension) and Xavier Worthy (shoulder). Worthy who was injured early in the Chargers game by his teammate, TE Travis Kelce, did return to practice on Thursday but seems highly unlikely to play here and that will put more pressure on Mahomes although he rose to the occasion against the Chargers as one would expect from a future certain Hall Of Famer. In the opening half, Mahomes was 12 of 21 (57.1%) for 98 yards (4.7 Y/A) with no touchdowns. In the second half, Mahomes went 12 of 18 (66.7%) for 160 yards (8.9 Y/A) with a touchdown. He also ran more scrambling four times for 42 yards and a touchdown in the second half.

In terms of pass catchers for Mahomes he’s left with some trusted players but they are a cast that lacks an explosive nature or real big play ability. Mahomes to Kelce has been a staple of the Chiefs offence for years and Kelce can still play and is dependable in certain situations, but he is not the dominant player he once was. Personnel losses will force Kansas City to lean on Kelce more than planned but this is a tough spot as the Eagles allowed a league-low 5.7 yards per target to tight ends in 2024. Injuries and sheer lack of personnel meant that Marquise “Hollywood” Brown turned 16 targets into 10 receptions for 99 scoreless yards against the Chargers and although he should get plenty of volume here which will please fantasy players he may draw Eagles top CB Quinyon Mitchell in coverage. Other options for the Chiefs include JuJu Smith-Schuster but he’s topped five targets in one of his last 18 games as a Chief and former second-round draft pick for the Patriots Tyquan Thornton who is quick but an unreliable pass catcher although with his speed he’s the most likely to get behind the Eagles secondary and catch a long bomb from Mahomes.

The bottom line here is that the Chiefs offence is outmanned from a personnel standpoint in basically every area when they have the ball and it will be up to Mahomes to manufacture something out of very little against an elite defence.

If anything has changed since their Super Bowl meeting it’s the fact that the Chiefs are worse off on both sides of the ball. The deficiencies that the Chiefs face mean that Mahomes is likely to play at a pace that will keep mistakes to a minimum as this isn’t the old Chiefs where they can rely on an explosive offence to go toe-to-toe with teams and it’s in the Eagles DNA to be patient with their play calling and approach ans use their defence to squeeze the life out of the opposition.

In road games where the Eagles are -3 or shorter or an underdog, Hurts is 10-8 SU with winning records against Lamar, Burrow, Mahomes and Goff to name a few and given the balance of the two sides it’s not hard to see Hurts adding to that record to leave the Chiefs 0-2 and the possibility that just having Mahomes won’t be enough.

---

RECOMMENDED BETS
BACK Patrick Mahomes OVER +241.5 passing yards 1pt at 10/11 (⭐️ ? CLICK TO BET NOW)
BACK Jalen Hurts to score a TD anytime 2pts at 4/5 (⭐️ ? CLICK TO BET NOW)

---

(SEP 2025): PROFIT/LOSS: -4.63 points

---

STAR PROMOTIONS