STAR RUGBY PREVIEW: Nations Championship Week 5

There’s just over a year to go until the next Rugby World Cup and a number of teams will be much happier with their preparation than others after the last gameweek in the Nations Championship, writes WILLIAM KEDJANYI.

Comprehensive wins for South Africa, New Zealand, England, France, and Ireland will have provided an excellent start to a crucial November for those involved whilst Italy and Australia in particular will have little time to reflect on worrying displays whilst Scotland will also have been licking their wounds after being blown away by the All Blacks.

We get to enjoy another packed weekend of action, this time starting with the match of the weekend – France v South Africa.

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🇫🇷 France v South Africa 🇿🇦 (8.10pm Friday, Stade de France)

Arguably the biggest match of the series, this being two of the leading contenders for next year’s World Cup together and one of the many talking points here will be about who isn’t playing for both sides despite the huge talent on show.

The French have responded to Romain Ntamack’s injury against Fiji by giving Antoine Dupont the 10 jersey, a response to a crisis that sees them without Ntamack, Matthieu Jalibert, Antoine Hastoy or Thomas Ramos. They aren’t the only serious absence either. Les Bleus are without the locks Emmanuel Meafou and Thibaud Flament too, Paul Boudehent misses out, and they can’t count on either Oscar Jégou and Anthony Jelonch. In the front row Dorian Aldegheri is absent – and even Cyril Baille just made it back in time to play for Toulouse last week.

There are no such issues for South Africa, with just two changes made to the starting 23 that enjoyed a dream start to their tour when beating Italy 66-7 without breaking a sweat. Facing down Les Bleus in Paris is obviously a completely different matter but 10 of the 15 Springboks who won 32-17 after overcoming a half-time red card to Lood de Jager start in Paris and it would be difficult to argue with the sheer strength in depth the visitors bring; indeed many would argue they have the best options of any test side on the planet.

This is a game that will be won – as all the great tests are – by winning the right to go wide. Everything the Springboks do comes from the destructive power they have on the pitch and the bench, and France are one of the few teams that can survive such an onslaught. However that was not the case last year when the Springbok pressure told, even when a man down.

South Africa are the clear choice here. A handicap of 8 against the French at home seems daunting but is fair given personnel and a handicap of -4.5 at 8/13 with starsports.bet is absolutely passable in the circumstances. Also of interest – and indeed maybe one of the stronger bets of the weekend – is the boosted 6/4 that starsports.bet give on the Springboks, Argentina and Scotland winning this weekend.

Teams:

🇫🇷 France: 1. Jean-Baptiste Gros, 2. Julien Marchand, 3. Sipili Falatea, 4. Florian Verhaeghe, 5. Mickaël Guillard, 6. François Cros, 7. Cameron Woki, 8. Grégory Alldritt, 9. Maxime Lucu, 10. Antoine Dupont (c), 11. Louis Bielle-Biarrey, 12. Yoram Moefana, 13. Kalvin Gourgues, 14. Aaron Grandidier-Nkanang, 15. Théo Attissogbe
Replacements: 16. Peato Mauvaka, 17. Rodrigue Neti, 18. Régis Montagne, 19. Charles Ollivon, 20. Tom Staniforth, 21. Esteban Capilla, 22. Axel Desperes, 23. Émilien Gailleton

🇿🇦 South Africa: 1. Ox Nche, 2. Malcolm Marx, 3. Wilco Louw, 4. Lood de Jager, 5. Ruan Nortje, 6. Siya Kolisi (c), 7. Pieter-Steph du Toit, 8. Jasper Wiese, 9. Morné van den Berg, 10. Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, 11. Ethan Hooker, 12. Damian de Allende, 13. Jesse Kriel, 14. Kurt-Lee Arendse, 15. Damian Willemse
Replacements: 16. Jan-Hendrik Wessels, 17. Gerhard Steenekamp, 18. Thomas du Toit, 19. Franco Mostert, 20. Cameron Hanekom, 21. Paul de Villiers, 22. Cobus Reinach, 23. Manie Libbok

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🇮🇹 Italy v Argentina 🇦🇷 (11.40am Saturday, Stadio Luigi Ferraris)

Two teams who are licking their wounds meet in a hugely important clash. Italy were embarrassed – admittedly by one of the most experienced Springboks sides ever to take the field – last week whilst Argentina couldn’t lay much of a glove on Ireland last week.

Both sides have had a tricky year – Italy have won just two of nine tests this year and Argentina have just won once – and there’s been some changes for both the starting lineups to boot.

 

Felipe Contepomi has made five changes following his side’s 42-12 defeat in Dublin, with Julián Montoya, Marcos Kremer and Juan Cruz Mallía all ruled out through injury, while Juan Martín González and Gonzalo García drop to the bench. A reshuffle in the backrow means that Pablo Matera moves from No.8 to blindside and captains Argentina for the fourth time in five Tests, with Joaquín Moro (8 caps) and Juan Martín Scelzo (3 caps) alongside him.

After last week’s humiliation Gonzalo Quesada has made five changes to Italy’s starting XV, with Tommaso Allan returning at full-back to join Ange Capuozzo and Monty Ioane in the back three, while Paolo Odogwu and Leonardo Marin continue together in midfield. Stephen Varney replaces Alessandro Fusco at scrum-half alongside Paolo Garbisi, whilst Danilo Fischetti returns at loosehead, and Ross Vintcent and Manuel Zuliani come into the back-row alongside Lorenzo Cannone.

On paper that’s a stronger Italy side and a weaker Argentinean one, although the visitors will surely have an eye on the home side’s midfield in defence – Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu had an absolute field day against them last week. All things considered a handicap of around 9-13 points looks reasonable and with starsports.bet alive to the potential for Mateo Carreras – who scored twice against Ireland last week – to get on the scoresheet once again, it may be worth just leaving Argentina as part of the boosted treble here.

Teams:

🇮🇹 Italy: 1. Danilo Fischetti, 2. Giacomo Nicotera (c), 3. Simone Ferrari, 4. Niccolò Cannone, 5. Federico Ruzza, 6. Ross Vintcent, 7. Manuel Zuliani, 8. Lorenzo Cannone, 9. Stephen Varney, 10. Paolo Garbisi, 11. Monty Ioane, 12. Leonardo Marin, 13. Paolo Odogwu, 14. Ange Capuozzo, 15. Tommaso Allan
Replacements: 16. Gianmarco Lucchesi, 17. Muhamed Hasa, 18. Marco Riccioni, 19. Enoch Opoku Gyamfi, 20. Alessandro Ortombina, 21. Samuele Locatelli, 22. Alessandro Garbisi, 23. Federico Mori

🇦🇷 Argentina: 1. Boris Wenger, 2. Bautista Bernasconi, 3. Francisco Moreno, 4. Guido Petti, 5. Pedro Rubiolo, 6. Pablo Matera (c), 7. Joaquín Moro, 8. Juan Martín Scelzo, 9. Simón Benítez Cruz, 10. Tomás Albornoz, 11. Mateo Carreras, 12. Santiago Chocobares, 13. Justo Piccardo, 14. Rodrigo Isgró, 15. Bautista Delguy
Replacements: 16. Facundo Bosch, 17. Mayco Vivas, 18. Joel Sclavi, 19. Efraín Elías, 20. Juan Martín González, 21. Facundo Isa, 22. Gonzalo García, 23. Gerónimo Prisciantelli

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🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 Wales v New Zealand 🇳🇿 (2.10pm Saturday, Principality Stadium)

Both Wales and New Zealand got their Autumns off to a successful start but whilst the All Blacks served notice to northern hemisphere sides by smashing up Scotland, Wales had to scrap harder than most would have expected to get the better of Japan at home.

The hosts didn’t convince many onlookers last week, having to hold on in frantic finale to give Steve Tandy just a fourth win in 13 internationals, and winning by not much further than they did 12 months ago when Jarrod Evans’ penalty sealed a one-point win. A malfunctioning line out – they lost six – several handling errors and indiscipline bode poorly for the visit of New Zealand.

The performances of Louis Rees-Zammit, a deserved player of the match after two tries and 122 metres gained, Blair Murray, Eddie James, Jac Morgan and Aaron Wainwright gives some hope but just how effective any of them will be this week remains to be seen.

New Zealand looked as if they were going to be in for an end-to-end fight after a first-half hat-trick from Scottish hooker Ewan Ashman means they were just three points ahead but Dave Rennie’s side found another gear alongside the hosts falling off the pace to run out impressive 43-21 winners.

The visitors – who did arrive with more cohesion after a hectic summer including the Rugby Championship and a blockbuster series against South Africa in which they competed very well – were excellent in the Red Zone with an average of over 3 points per 22 entry, whilst their scrum, improved over the year, got the better of the hosts on key occasions to boot.

Again we are dealing with a changed team here from Week 1. Dave Rennie has made eight changes to the starting XV (Prop George Bower, hooker Asafo Aumua, flanker Anton Segner, scrum-half Cortez Ratima, lock Josh Lord, fly-half Richie Mo’unga, inside centre Anton Lienert-Brown and right wing Fehi Fineanganofo) and a further two to the subs bench. With half of the new starters having come off the bench last week there shouldn’t be too many issues with cohesion and whilst Richie Mo’unga and Cortez Ratima have big shoes to fill at halfback, Mo’unga’s hugely experienced at this level and Ratima has 25 caps.

Steve Tandy has made four changes to his starting line-up with Taine Basham (number eight), James Botham (blindside flank), Adam Beard (lock) and Gabriel Hamer-Webb (left wing) coming into the run-on side. Hamer-Webb is an exciting prospect who is worth watching and Wales do have promising players to build their team around but the gulf between them and other top nations is going to take some time to fill.

Wales’ six losses this year have come by an average of 25.5 points, a margin which is flattered by a close encounter with Scotland (3 point defeat) and an attritional battle against Ireland when resolute defense kept the scoreline in check. Steve Tandy and his team still have a lot of work to do, and it’s hard to see them containing the All Blacks. Take the visitors to pass a 30.5 point handicap at 5/6 with starsports.bet.

Teams:

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 Wales: 1. Nicky Smith, 2. Dewi Lake (c), 3. Archie Griffin, 4. Dafydd Jenkins, 5. Adam Beard, 6. James Botham, 7. Jac Morgan, 8. Taine Basham, 9. Tomos Williams, 10. Sam Costelow, 11. Gabriel Hamer-Webb, 12. Max Llewellyn, 13. Eddie James, 14. Louis Rees-Zammit, 15. Blair Murray
Replacements: 16. Ryan Elias, 17. Gareth Thomas, 18. Dillon Lewis, 19. Ben Carter, 20. Taine Plumtree, 21. Reuben Morgan-Williams, 22. Dan Edwards, 23. Louie Hennessey

🇳🇿 New Zealand: 1. George Bower, 2. Asafo Aumua, 3. Fletcher Newell, 4. Scott Barrett, 5. Josh Lord, 6. Anton Segner, 7. Peter Lakai, 8. Wallace Sititi, 9. Cortez Ratima, 10. Richie Mo’unga, 11. Josh Moorby, 12. Anton Lienert-Brown, 13. Quinn Tupaea, 14. Fehi Fineanganofo, 15. Beauden Barrett (c)
Replacements: 16. George Bell, 17. Xavier Numia, 18. Pasilio Tosi, 19. Jamie Hannah, 20. Ethan Blackadder, 21. Leicester Fainga’anuku, 22. Kyle Preston, 23. Rieko Ioane

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🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England v Japan 🇯🇵 (4.40pm Saturday, Allianz Stadium)

England’s coaching team would have been delighted and relieved with a dominant showing against Australia and they will be looking for more of the same as they face ex-England boss Eddie Jones when Japan visit Twickenham.

The visitors will be looking to sharpen up the positive parts of their play against Wales, where they created plenty of chances and pressured the Welsh lineout with six steals but just failed to take the most of their chances in what was a frantic game. The likes of Kazuma Ueda – a standout performer in attack for the Brave Blossoms – will be hoping to take advantage of new combinations although they will need to find more strength in contact than the Australians had.

Steve Borthwick, partly due to injury, has shuffled his deck in a big way with 10 changes to his starting XV and a further four on the bench as well, giving us a look at a nearly all the England squad players who didn’t get to start last week. The front row is entirely new, with Ellis Genge, Luke Cowan-Dickie and Asher Opoku-Fordjour starting, and George Martin comes into the second row alongside Itoje. Coles moves to blindside flanker because Chessum is injured, Earl switches to openside, and Henry Pollock starts at No.8 after playing on the wing against Australia.

Behind the scrum, George Ford comes in at fly-half and is vice-captain alongside Genge, and Max Ojomoh replaces Seb Atkinson at inside centre for his third cap. The back three is reshaped, with Freddie Steward at full-back and Will Joseph and Cadan Murley on the wings, as Immanuel Feyi-Waboso is out for the rest of the campaign with an ankle injury. Archie McParland could make his Test debut at scrum-half from the bench.

With so many changes, it could take time for England to find their full flow, although the difference in squad depth ought to make itself clear. Japan’s average losing margin this year has been 16.5 points and their median 11.5 so the handicap is a tricky call. England would be the call if pushed but the 31-40 point winning margin at 4/1 with starsports.bet should give backers a decent run for their money. Anytime tryscorers will be of interest – Ben Earl was outstanding against Australia and should be heavily involved again.

Teams:

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England: 1. Ellis Genge, 2. Luke Cowan-Dickie, 3. Asher Opoku-Fordjour, 4. Maro Itoje (c), 5. George Martin, 6. Alex Coles, 7. Ben Earl, 8. Henry Pollock, 9. Jack van Poortvliet, 10. George Ford, 11. Cadan Murley, 12. Max Ojomoh, 13. Henry Slade, 14. Will Joseph, 15. Freddie Steward
Replacements: 16. Theo Dan, 17. Emmanuel Iyogun, 18. Joe Heyes, 19. Arthur Clark, 20. Ben Curry, 21. Greg Fisilau, 22. Archie McParland, 23. Marcus Smith

🇯🇵 Japan: 1. Yota Kamimori, 2. Mamoru Harada, 3. Shuhei Takeuchi, 4. Harry Hockings, 5. Warner Dearns, 6. Ben Gunter, 7. Kanji Shimokawa, 8. Jack Cornelsen, 9. Naoto Saito, 10. Riku Kitahara, 11. Riku Tokito, 12. Samisoni Tua, 13. Dylan Riley, 14. Kippei Ishida, 15. Kazuma Ueda
Replacements: 16. Kenji Sato, 17. Sojiro Otsuka, 18. Opeti Helu, 19. Michael Stolberg, 20. Tiennan Costley, 21. Shinobu Fujiwara, 22. Shinya Komura, 23. Jisu Lee

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🇮🇪 Ireland v Fiji 🇫🇯 (8.10pm Saturday, Aviva Stadium)

More rotation for punters to consider here as Andy Farrell rests players ahead of South Africa’s visit next week whilst also taking a look at a squad with positions up for grabs. The visitors played with credit against France before finding Les Bleus too strong late on and will be hoping to put more early pressure on the Irish given their changes although they will need to finish the game more strongly here.

Andy Farrell has made seven changes and two positional switches to the side that beat Argentina last week, with Tadhg Beirne captaining Ireland for the first time because Dan Sheehan is out with a head injury. Rónan Kelleher comes into the front row at hooker, joining Andrew Porter and Tadhg Furlong, who start for a second week running. James Ryan joins Beirne in the second row, and Josh van der Flier returns at openside. Nick Timoney switches to No.8, with Ryan Baird continuing at blindside.

Behind the scrum, Jamison Gibson-Park starts at scrum-half, with Craig Casey moving to the bench, and Sam Prendergast stays at fly-half. There is an all-new centre pairing, with Bundee Aki at 12 and Jamie Osborne at 13, and Tommy O’Brien comes into the back three for his first appearance of the window. Mack Hansen moves to full-back, Robert Baloucoune continues on the wing and Hugo Keenan misses the 23 in what is a very experienced outfit that Andy Farrell was at pains to call not experimental.

Fiji had two major weaknesses against the French – the difference in performance level after the break and the maul, which the French used to great effect – so we can expect Ireland to turn to one of their key strengths with plenty of frequency.

Much has been written about Ireland’s changes but Fiji have also rung the changes with Jake White making nine alterations to his side including retaining only six of the starting XV that ran out last week. The biggest of them is arguably former Clermont star Peceli Yato taking the captain’s armband from Number 8 whilst Setareki Bituniyata makes a test debut alongside Josua Tuisova. The call to stick veteran playmaker Ben Volavola alongside Frank Lomani at half-back suggests there might be some more structure this week to things and once again this is a tight handicap here.

A good argument can be made for both sides of the handicap but Mack Hansen provides real betting interest. He was outstanding in Ireland’s comfortable win against Argentina and should have just as big an impact at fullback here. France scored seven tries against Fiji last week and prices of 5/6 and 4/1 with starsports.bet on Hansen scoring one or two of them feel very fair.

Teams:

🇮🇪 Ireland: 1. Andrew Porter, 2. Rónan Kelleher, 3. Tadhg Furlong, 4. James Ryan, 5. Tadhg Beirne (c), 6. Ryan Baird, 7. Josh van der Flier, 8. Nick Timoney, 9. Jamison Gibson-Park, 10. Sam Prendergast, 11. Tommy O’Brien, 12. Bundee Aki, 13. Jamie Osborne, 14. Robert Baloucoune, 15. Mack Hansen
Replacements: 16. Tom Stewart, 17. Tom O’Toole, 18. Sam Illo, 19. Darragh Murray, 20. James McNabney, 21. Craig Casey, 22. Ciarán Frawley, 23. Stuart McCloskey

🇫🇯 Fiji: 1. Peni Ravai, 2. Tevita Ikanivere, 3. Luke Tagi, 4. Joseva Tamani, 5. Isoa Nasilasila, 6. Mesake Vocevoce, 7. Lekima Tagitagivalu, 8. Peceli Yato (c), 9. Frank Lomani, 10. Ben Volavola, 11. Jiuta Wainiqolo, 12. Josua Tuisova, 13. Setareki Bituniyata, 14. Selestino Ravutaumada, 15. Ponepati Loganimasi
Replacements: 16. Zuriel Togiatama, 17. Vilikesa Nairau, 18. Inoke Ravuiwasa, 19. Kitione Salawa, 20. Elia Canakaivata, 21. Terio Tamani, 22. Caleb Muntz, 23. Iosefo Masi

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🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Scotland v Australia 🇦🇺 (3.10pm Sunday, Murrayfield)

Both camps will be reeling for different reasons after the first week. Scotland helped produce the best half of rugby of the weekend here last Saturday before the All Blacks pulled away in a fashion that disappointed home fans whilst Australia simply couldn’t get a foothold in the game against England, being dominated in contact and feeding off scraps which made the scoreline flattering at Twickenham.

Les Kiss has made far fewer changes than many others from last week – three changes in personnel and two positional switches to his XV – with Joseph Suaalii’s return to outside centre reuniting him with Len Ikitau. Harry Potter comes into the run-on side on the left wing where he will join Tom Wright (full-back) and Max Jorgensen in the back three while Carter Gordon takes over from Declan Meredith as the starting fly-half.

The return of Rob Valetini to the backrow to make an exciting trio alongside Wallabies skipper and number eight Harry Wilson and fellow flanker Fraser McReight will provide much excitement but their leading lights couldn’t cope with England’s physicality and intensity, with England making 81 first half tackles and missing just two whilst the Aussies missed 17 tackles after the break.

England started with intent even if things didn’t quite stick and even if it hadn’t been for Angus Bell’s yellow, they would have been overwhelmed.

Scotland will be unhappy with their second half against the All Blacks although they should have learned a good amount from that outing and facing a weaker set-piece (Australia’s lineout retention was only 75% amongst other things) should give more of a platform for Finn Russell and the return of Lions duo Blair Kinghorn and Darcy Graham is a tremendous boost for one of the best backlines in the game.

An open game will probably suit the Wallabies more than last week but they look vulnerable defensively and will need to bring more power to proceedings. Scotland will be unhappy with how they finished last week but few sides can match the All Blacks and they’d won all three of their games at Murrayfield this year including a 50-40 defeat of France before last weekend, so are rightfully strong favorites. Take the hosts to pass 7 and 10 point handicaps at 8/11 and 21/20 with starsports.bet whilst sealing Star’s boosted treble in style.

Teams:

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Scotland: 1. Rory Sutherland, 2. Ewan Ashman, 3. Zander Fagerson, 4. Gregor Brown, 5. Scott Cummings, 6. Matt Fagerson, 7. Rory Darge, 8. Jack Dempsey, 9. Ben White, 10. Finn Russell, 11. Darcy Graham, 12. Sione Tuipulotu (c), 13. Huw Jones, 14. Kyle Steyn, 15. Blair Kinghorn
Replacements: 16. Gregor Hiddleston, 17. Pierre Schoeman, 18. Will Hurd, 19. Max Williamson, 20. Josh Bayliss, 21. Ollie Leatherbarrow, 22. Jamie Dobie, 23. Tom Jordan

🇦🇺 Australia: 1. Angus Bell, 2. Billy Pollard, 3. Allan Alaalatoa, 4. Josh Canham, 5. Jeremy Williams, 6. Rob Valetini, 7. Fraser McReight, 8. Harry Wilson (c), 9. Ryan Lonergan, 10. Carter Gordon, 11. Harry Potter, 12. Len Ikitau, 13. Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii, 14. Max Jorgensen, 15. Tom Wright
Replacements: 16. Brandon Paenga-Amosa, 17. Isaac Kailea, 18. Taniela Tupou, 19. Lachlan Shaw, 20. Tom Hooper, 21. Tate McDermott, 22. Ben Donaldson, 23. Filipo Daugunu

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BACK South Africa, Argentina & Scotland – All to Win 6pts at 13/8 (boosted from 11/8) (⭐ ? CLICK TO BET NOW)

RECOMMENDED BETS – France v South Africa
BACK South Africa -4.5 2-way handicap 2.5pts at 8/13 (⭐ ? CLICK TO BET NOW)

RECOMMENDED BETS – Wales v New Zealand
BACK New Zealand -30.5 2-way handicap 4pts at 5/6 (⭐ ? CLICK TO BET NOW)

RECOMMENDED BETS – England v Japan
BACK England to win by 31-40 points 1pt at 4/1 (⭐ ? CLICK TO BET NOW)

RECOMMENDED BETS – Ireland v Fiji
BACK Mack Hansen to score anytime 2pts at 5/6 (⭐ ? CLICK TO BET NOW)
BACK Mack Hansen to score 2+ tries 1pt at 4/1 (⭐ ? CLICK TO BET NOW)

RECOMMENDED BETS – Scotland v Australia
BACK Scotland -6.5 5pts at 8/11 (⭐ ? CLICK TO BET NOW)
BACK Scotland -9.5 2.5pts at 21/20 (⭐ ? CLICK TO BET NOW)

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PROFIT/LOSS (NOV 2026): -15.81 points

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