STAR PREVIEW: Champions League Final 2021

The European club season ends with an all-English Champions League final between one of the continent’s outstanding teams over the past few years in the shape of Manchester City, and a Chelsea side that’s been mostly transformed by the arrival of Thomas Tuchel in mid-season. Victory for either side would be a titanic moment – a first Champions League for Manchester City would be historic, whilst a second title for Chelsea would go some way to match their turnaround of 2011-12, when they upset Bayern Munich under Roberto Di Matteo. Without further ado, let’s look at the two sides.

Manchester City

Route to the final:

Group Stage: Won Group C (Man City 16pts, Porto 13, Olympiacos 3, Marseille 3)

Last 16: Beat Borussia Monchengladbach (won 4-0 on aggregate, winning away and home legs 2-0)

Quarter-finals: Beat Borussia Dortmund (won 4-2 on aggregate, winning home and away legs 2-1)

Semi-finals: Beat Paris St Germain (won 4-1 on aggregate, winning away leg 2-1 and home leg 2-0)

The Case For:

A star studded team that has exuded total control over the Premier League for much of the calendar year, winning 15 straight league games to all but seal a third title in four seasons with plenty of game time to spare, whilst also taking the EFL Cup to boot.

The core of City’s side – Ederson, Reuben Dias, John Stones, Fernandinho, Ilkay Gündogan, Kevin de Bryune and Phil Foden – has been outstanding all season, with Ruben Dias’s exceptional presence helping City to become a far more solid defensive unit, Gündogan’s new lease of tactical life in the absence of De Bryune giving City a new threat from midfield whilst Phil Foden’s silky skills and hard running terrorising opposition defences.

The Dias-Stones partnership has undoubtedly had an influence in big game settings, making City look much more secure at the back against the sort of counter attacking pace that has ended European campaigns for City beforehand – And at the other end of the pitch, City are creating and scoring just as much as they ever have.

Guardiola has gone without a recognised striker for much of the season, but he does have the option of Gabriel Jesus or even outgoing legend Sergio Aguero if a more direct approach is needed.

Sealing the Premier League title as they did means that they should come into this game nice and fresh – they didn’t appear to extend too much energy in dismissing Everton 5-0 to end their season on Sunday.

This is City’s first Champions League final, but this squad has plenty of trophy winning experience under Guardiola – City have won the last four EFL Cup finals and the 2018-19 FA Cup final when taking a domestic treble – and it’s unlikely they’ll get cold feet even on this biggest of stages.

The Case Against:

Are City facing their bogey team in Chelsea? It’s worth considering, given that Tomas Tuchel has beaten Pep Guardiola twice – once in a semi-final – and The Blues have already proven themselves to be extremely awkward opponents for City. Tuchel’s tactical changes at Stamford Bridge have mostly worked but Saturday might be a simple task, with ten bodies behind the ball, giving City the challenge to break them down whilst keeping them exposed on the break,

City have a fine cup record in finals, but their European record could be looked at as a possible mental hurdle to boot – given their previous record, it would also be unwise

Weak spots in this City team are few and far between, but Kyle Walker is a potential avenue to be targeted if he’s caught out of position and City could be caught on the flanks, as has happened in the past.

Man City v Chelsea
UEFA Champions League Final
20:00 BT Sport 1 / BT Sport Ultimate / BT Sport YouTube

HEAD-TO-HEAD RECORD
(Maximum 10 matches)
MAY 2021 PREMIER LEAGUE Manchester City 1-2 Chelsea
APR 2021 FA CUP SEMI-FINAL Chelsea 1-0 Manchester City
JAN 2021 PREMIER LEAGUE Chelsea 1-3 Manchester City
JUN 2020 PREMIER LEAGUE Chelsea 2-1 Manchester City
NOV 2019 PREMIER LEAGUE Manchester City 2-1 Chelsea
FEB 2019 EFL CUP FINAL Chelsea 0-0 Manchester City (Man City won 4-3 on penalties)
FEB 2019 PREMIER LEAGUE Manchester City 6-0 Chelsea
DEC 2018 PREMIER LEAGUE Chelsea 2-0 Manchester City
AUG 2018 COMMUNITY SHIELD Chelsea 0-2 Manchester City
MAR 2018 PREMIER LEAGUE Manchester City 0-1 Chelsea

Past Champions League Final Winners
2010-11: Barcelona 2-0 Manchester United
2011-12: Chelsea 1-1 Bayern Munich (1-1 AET, Chelsea won 4-3 on penalties)
2012-13: Bayern Munich 2-1 Borussia Dortmund
2013-14: Real Madrid 4-1 Atlético Madrid (1-1 at FT, 4-1 AET)
2014-15: Barcelona 3-1 Juventus
2015-16: Real Madrid 1-1 Atlético Madrid (Real Madrid won 5-1 on penalties)
2016-17: Real Madrid 4-1 Juventus
2017-18: Real Madrid 3-1 Liverpool
2018-19: Liverpool 2-0 Tottenham Hotspur
2019-19: Bayern Munich 1-0 PSG

Chelsea

Route to the final:

Group Stage: Won Group E (Chelsea 14pts, Sevilla 13, Krasnodar 5, Rennes 1)

Last 16: Beat Atletico Madrid (won 3-0 on aggregate, won away leg 1-0, and home leg 2-0)

Quarter-finals: Beat Porto (won 2-1 on aggregate, won away leg 2-0, lost home leg 1-0)

Semi-finals: Beat Real Madrid (Won 3-1 on aggregate, drew away leg 1-1 and won home leg 2-0)

The Case For:

Chelsea are one of the few teams in Europe who can say they’ve been there and done it against Manchester City, with two wins against them in the last two months. The first, a 1-0 FA Cup semi-final victory that ended hopes of the Quadruple, was an absolute masterclass which means that they are one of only two teams have stopped Man City from scoring across all competitions in 2021.

In the league match up, Chelsea rallied well from 1-0 down in a more open encounter, proving that they can go head-to-head with City in a more attacking game, so Tuchel should have no fear of his opposite number, which is not something that can be said often for sides facing Manchester City.

A squad which has received substantial investment over the summer does have a great deal of quality, with defensive options including Thiago Silva, Antonio Rudiger, and Cesar Azpilicueta, whilst N’Golo Kante has been a titan in midfield.

Mason Mount is a sure-fire starter who offers creativity, aggression and speed going forward and Reece James can stretch the game on the flanks, giving Chelsea the potential to influence this game.

The Case Against:

You can’t say that The Blues are carrying their best form here. They have Tottenham’s comeback at Leicester to thank for their position in the Champions League after a dismal loss at Aston Villa where Jorginho was abysmal in midfield, Christian Pulisic was never sighted, Timo Werner was dominated by the host’s centrebacks too.

That makes it three losses in their last four games, including a limp FA Cup final defeat to Leicester when they’d started with promise but failed to implement themselves fully on the game as several key figures disappointed.

Mason Mount has been brilliant for Chelsea but the likes of Christian Pulisic, Hakim Ziyech and Kai Havertz haven’t managed to reach his level and for all his pace, Timo Werner has struggled with the timing of his runs and chance conversion, two problems that have swamped him all season.

Thomas Tuchel sounded positive about the prospects of Edouard Mendy and N’Golo Kante playing, but if the latter was to be significantly impacted by his injury or a non-starter, Chelsea’s hopes would take a massive hit.

A common theme links Chelsea’s three recent defeats – their opponents scored first on all occasions – and it appears that chasing a game is not a strength for Tuchel’s side.

The Verdict

This is a hard final to assess. Manchester City have been brilliant for much of the season and on balance are deserving favourites, but they face a Chelsea side that has twice beaten them in the past two months in differing styles and there’s no particular appetite to take a short price about them winning in 90 minutes.

Thomas Tuchel’s side will need to buck up their ideas – a similar performance to the ones seen in the FA Cup final or the last game of the Premier League season will end only one way for them.

City are favoured, but it would be no surprise if this final started slowly and if it took time for the game to open up. Chelsea, who have been so resolute in defence for most of the season, have already frustrated City with a deep lying formation and whilst the City side picked for this will be different (Guardiola made eight changes from side that had won semi-final v PSG) it’s easy to see a cagey first half here.

Star bet 11/10 that the first goal is scored after 30 minutes, a price which makes appeal when one considers that the first goals in the last two meetings between the pair have come after 44 and 55 minutes, whilst last season the previously freewheeling Bayern Munich won a tight final last season by a 1-0 scoreline with Kingsley Coman’s 59th minute header.

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