STAR PREVIEW: Six Nations 2021

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ot much feels terribly normal right about now but the first weekend in February always brings the Six Nations and despite all the current challenges we’re set for a full championship this season – touchwood – which is a huge credit to all involved. Without further ado, here’s the Star Guide to the Six Nations:

Six Nations Championship 2021
6 February – 20 March 2021
Live on BBC & ITV TV in the UK, S4C in Wales RTE in Ireland, France Sport TV and online

England – currently evens with starsports.bet

2020 was a success for England, who responded to their Rugby World Cup final defeat in the best way possible, winning the delayed Six Nations and then the hastily put together Autumn Nations Cup, with their only defeat coming in-front of a raucous crowd in Paris – a scenario sadly facing no team this year.

Eddie Jones’ side have been brutally efficient – to the point that even some England fans, and an exp player or two have bemoaned the lack of ambition – but it’s continued to work and it’s very hard to find answers to the sheer power and intensity they’ve brought to most games for the last 2 years.

The direction of Owen Farrell – who is the chief playmaker with George Ford dropped – is followed by the pace of Johnny May and Anthony Watson, with Elliot Daly’s huge boot also giving England yet more distance. Henry Slade’s pace, lines and handling can be used in open play but also make for an excellent option with the boot and the choice of Ollie Lawrence to play at 12 may mean we see more of Slade’s creative onus.

England’s chief destroyers in the pack are well known – Billy Vunipola, Maro Itoje and Jamie George are household names and amongst the best in the world at what they do. It’s all most formidable, but Jones may have two big challenges. Firstly, the cumulative impact of being without Mako Vunipola, Kyle Sinckler, Joe Marler, Joe Launchbury and Sam Underhill.

Jones is likely to be confident that Ellis Genge, Will Stuart and Jonny Hill, the three least experienced members of the team, will fill the gaps this year, an impression backed up by their form at club level (and previous appearances) before.

A bigger underlying challenge may be that the Saracens contingent of the team – the core of George, Itoje, Vunipola, Farrell and Daly – has barely had any competitive rugby and no high-level rugby since their Autumn Nations Cup final against France. Jones is a notoriously hard taskmaster when it comes to fitness but at this level, every single advantage counts and it’s worth noting that they never beat a home nations side by 12 points or more last year.

France – currently 9/4 with starsports.bet

It’s often said that we don’t know which France will turn up but that hasn’t been true for the last 12 months – we know they’re very good and we can expect a big showing. A year that started with an incredible early blitz of England in Paris continued to see great progress for the French, who ended up finishing second in last year’s tournament on points difference before then clashing with England once again, this time losing the Autumn Nations Cup on points difference despite a much-changed side thanks to a dispute with the Top 14 over player availability.

Fabien Galthie, Shaun Edwards and Raphael Ibanez have had a big effect on Les Bleus, who have rediscovered the panache of much-loved French sides in the 90’s and early 2000’s, led by sensational scrumhalf Antione Dupont. His partnership with Romain Ntamack, the tournament’s top point scorer last year, had been crucial to this, which is why his injury is such a blow. However, Matthieu Jalibert, himself the ‘next big thing’ before injuries curtailed his development for 18 months, has been in brilliant form for Bordeaux-Begles.

They will aim to supply a backline that has pace, power and skill in Gabin Villiere, Gael Fickou, Arthur Vincent, Teddy Thomas and Brice Dulin, and last season French forwards were arguably the starts of the tournament with Gregory Alldritt, Charles Ollivon Bernard le Roux, and Julien Marchand all outstanding.

The French can play more than one style of rugby and have crucially proven their squad depth too – when France pushed England to extra-time in the Autumn Nations Cup final, an agreement struck between France and their clubs meant head coach Fabien Galthie was without 25 front-line internationals, resulting in the selection of a reserve team containing only 68 caps – needless to say not a single French player will be underestimated this time around.

Ireland – currently 7/2 with starsports.bet

Andy Farrell’s first year at the helm of Ireland had ups and downs, but things could improve quickly in 2021 for the men in green. Filling in the shoes of Joe Schmidt was always going to be a huge challenge for a side that is trying out new things when it comes to attacking identity, but a year at the helm should see them look like a more cohesive unit this time around and that could help results.

Farrell will need to think about the next World Cup and do so quickly but he has a settled side packed with experience – there are five players in their matchday squad that o played in Ireland’s last Six Nations victory in Cardiff in 2013 (Conor Murray, Johnny Sexton, Cian Healy, Peter O’Mahony and Keith Earls).

CJ Stander and Peter O’Mahony are world class backrowers whilst James Ryan is one of the best talents of his generation, so there is muscle to be found – the issue for Ireland recently has been failing to bring the most out of their backs and it remains to be seen what style of play we can expect, with much resting on Robbie Henshaw and Garry Ringrose, who are set to be partnered in midfield against Wales having last started a Test match together in the quarter-final of the 2019 Rugby World Cup.

If they and the traditional combination of Murray and Sexton all gel, then Hugo Keenan, Keith Earls and James Lowe can be dangermen for Ireland who shouldn’t be underestimated this year, for all that they’ll need to improve on their 2019 showings, where England and France both beat them comprehensively.

Wales – currently 14/1 with starsports.bet

It’s fair to say that the last 12 months have been a struggle for Wales. Wayne Pivac arrived. – much like Andy Farrell, as discussed above – with an intention to expand their play after Warren Gatland’s departure but they’ve been besieged by teething problems and they won only three of ten games last year, twice beating Italy and then Georgia in the autumn Nations Cup.

This is a make-or-break year for Wayne Pivac, who will need results after blooding a number of young prospects last season (Callum Sheedy, Ioan Lloyd, Shane Lewis-Hughes, Kieran Hardy, Johnny Williams and Louis Rees-Zammit all made their international debuts for Wales last year).

There’s an obvious mountain of improvement to find there, but there are some reasons for optimism. The return of Josh Navidi to the backrow is *massive*, not only for his turnover forcing ability but also his link up play in combination with Justin Tipuric too. The returning Dan Lydiate, resurgent for Ospreys, could provide a major role in this too if carrying on that form.

Dan Biggar has been in excellent form for Northampton, Taulupe Faletau provides them with ballast from the base of the pack and Louis Rees-Zammit looks to be a real find on the wings. However, their issues may be in the pack, where Ken Owens will need to inspire a change in fortune as he returns to the side after missing the autumn campaign due to injury. An early clash against Ireland will tell us much more about the chances of a side that is surely better than their 2020 showing on paper.

Scotland – currently 22/1 with starsports.bet

Scotland – now one of the most exciting sides to watch in European rugby, which has been the case for the best part of five years now – are regularly pushing the 6 Nations favourites and aren’t that far away from breaking into the top half of the table.

Last year they not only took a rare away scalp at Wales, but were the only side to bear France and lost two games by seven points. There’s a disclaimer needed for their French win – Les Bleus’ chances evaporated when Mohamed Haouas’ punched Jamie Ritchie in the 37th minute – but on the other hand one could say they were criminally unlucky not to at least draw with Ireland when Stuart Hogg, who lost concentration while crossing Ireland’s try-line and dropped the ball when clear of all other players.

That shows us how consistent Scotland’s performances are even if there is a suspicion that they miss Vern Cotter, who managed to transform them as an attacking force. Much will rest upon their x-factor players such as Finn Russell, Stuart Hogg, Hamish Watson and Rory Sutherland – and in the shape of Cameron Redpath and Duhan van der Merwe they’ve potentially got two more stars.

If they play to their best – and Redpath and van der Merwe can hit the ground running – then they’ll have every chance of pulling off a big result, but they would need to be better than they were in the Autumn Nations Cup, when France and Ireland were too good for them.

Italy – currently 500/1 with starsports.bet

Look beneath the surface of Italy’s results – they’ve not won a game since 2015 and lost all eight of their games last year in both this and the Autumn Nations Cup – and there’s a fascinating rugby revolution taking place with the Azzuri.

Head coach Franco Smith is giving a chance to the Azzuri’s youngest and brightest players, with an average age of just 24 for their opener against France. Just four players in their 32-man squad on more than 30 caps – and one of their best players, Matteo Minozzi, has opted to sit this tournament out – meaning that they’re very much in transition, but there’s definitely talent to watch out for there.

Paolo Garbisi, who has impressed at Test level since making his debut against Ireland and is now the sole playmaker with 19-year-old scrum-half Stephen Varney lining up at scrum-half. Both are players to watch out for in a backline which is very unexposed indeed and has shown flashes of great talent.

Elsewhere, Maxime Mbanda and Federico Ruzza are two ball carriers who could step up to be the leading light for the team and Italy, even in defeat, are often pleasing on the eye – that said, the form of Italian clubs in the Pro 14 doesn’t bode well with Benetton Treviso losing all ten games this season and Zebre losing eight of eleven games.

VERDICT
There could be very little between the sides in this year’s Six Nations and whilst England look to be the right favourites, they could be a touch shot at evens. France were pipped only on points difference last year and whilst they have to go to Twickenham and Dublin, that’s a less daunting task without crowds and they proved in the Autumn Nations Cup that they’ve got the depth to match any rival.

The backroom management of Galthie, Shaun Edwards and Raphael Ibanez has had a major effect on Les Bleus and they’re favoured for the title assuming all things remain equal. Ireland are seen as the chief threats but Scotland and Wales aren’t to be discounted – although they may be better value in different markets, or on a match by match basis. Italy’s young squad should provide some exciting moments but this could be another painful year as far as results go.

TOP POINT SCORER
It’s understandable that Owen Farrell’s an even money favourite for this market but Romain Ntamack beat him to the punch last year and maybe Matthieu Jalibert is value to do the same. With Thomas Ramos ruled out through injury he’ll be the first port of call for all France’s shots on goal, which makes him look value at 5/1 – he was brilliant with the boot in the Autumn Nations Cup, and kicked 15 points in Bordeaux’s win at Racing 92 in the Top 14. Points scored through tries also count, a bonus for a sharp playmaker who runs flat to the line. Johnathan Sexton and Dan Biggar are both respected although Leigh Halfpenny takes long distance shots for Wales which could impact Biggar’s chances.

PAST TOP SCORERS
2020: Romain Ntmack (57 points, France)
2019: Owen Farrell (59 points, England)
2018: Maxime Machenaud (50 points, France)
2017: Camille Lopez (67 points, France)
2016: Owen Farrell (69 points, England)
2015: George Ford (75 points, England)
2014: Jonathan Sexton (66 points, Ireland)
2013: Leigh Halfpenny (75 points, Wales)
2012: Leigh Halfpenny (66 points, Wales)
2011: Toby Flood (50 points, England)
2010: Stephen Jones (63 points, Wales)

TOP TRY SCORER
This can be an absolute lottery, so it’s worth being brave and having a bash. Antoine Dupont only scored one try last year but the livewire scrumhalf is capable of so much more than that and is worth having onside and looks too big at 16/1. Jonny May is the chief focus of nearly all England’s attacking and is blessed with a kick-chase game as good as any winger in the world, so he’s worthy of support, whilst a third contender is Duhan van der Merwe, who made an instant impact for Scotland in the Autumn Nations Cup and who has the benefit of playing outside Finn Russell and with Stuart Hogg in the backline.

PAST TOP TRY SCORERS
2020: Charles Ollivon (France, four tries)
2019: Jonny May (England, 6 tries)
2018: Jacob Stockdale (Ireland, 7 tries)
2017: Eight players tied for first with three tries (Danny Care, Keith Earls, CJ Stander, Stuart Hogg, Craig Gilroy, Johnathan Joseph)
2016: George North (Wales, 4 tries)
2015: Johnathan Joseph (England, 4 tries)
2014: Mike Brown and Johnathan Sexton (England and Ireland, 4 tries each)
2013: Alex Cuthbert (Wales, 4 tries)
2012: Tommy Bowe (Ireland, 5 tries)
2011: Chris Ashton (England, 6 tries)
2010: Tommy Bowe, Keith Earls, Shane Williams, James Hook (First two from Ireland, last two from Wales, all with three tries)

PAST SIX NATIONS WINNERS
2020: England
2019: Wales (Grand Slam winners)
2018: Ireland (Grand Slam winners)
2017: England
2016: England (Grand Slam winners)
2015: Ireland
2014: Ireland
2013: Wales
2012: Wales (Grand Slam winners)
2011: England
2010: France (Grand Slam winners)

RECOMMENDED BETS (scale of 1-100 points)
BACK France 2 pts at 9/4 with starsports.bet
BACK France in Betting Without England 3 pts at 10/11 with starsports.bet
BACK Matthieu Jalibert Top Point scorer 3 pts at 5/1 with starsports.bet
BACK Johnny May Top Try scorer 2 pts at 9/2 with starsports.bet
BACK Duhan van der Merwe Top Try scorer 1 pt each/way at 14/1 with starsports.bet
BACK Antoine Dupont Top Try scorer 1 pt each/way at 16/1 with starsports.bet

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