STAR RUGBY PREVIEW: 2025 Six Nations Week 4

The penultimate week of the Six Nations is full of narrative, jeopardy, and intrigue, writes WILLIAM KEDJANYI.

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Can France pull themselves back into title contention and ruin Ireland’s grand slam plans? Was Wales’s improvement against Scotland – who must be asking themselves if they can make the most of their attacking flair? A false dawn, helped by a changed team and a red card?

Can England turn on their attacking flow against Italy? And how will the Azzurri respond to their shellacking by France? All will be revealed this week – the Saturday games are below.

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🇮🇪 Ireland v France 🇫🇷 (Saturday 2.15pm, Aviva Stadium)

Never say never in the Six Nations, but on all known form this looks to be a potential title and grand slam decider – should Ireland win, then they will be long odds on to beat Italy, whilst a French win would make the destination of the title much more complex.

France’s mammoth points difference of +91 after big wins over Wales (43-0) and Italy, (73-24) realistically Ireland (currently with +28 points difference) will need to finish at least one point above them in the final reckoning to take the title. That would require either getting multiple bonus points in a loss to France, or Scotland doing them a favour by avoiding defeat to Les Bleus on the final day.

Should France win – and limit Ireland to just one bonus point (for margin or four tries), they would win the title with bonus-point victory over Scotland on Super Saturday, and the fact that points difference is now the key factor means they can stay ahead of England with one try bonus point – assuming they win both remaining games.

Both teams arrive after wins, with Ireland overcoming a newly resurgent Wales – including a red card (20 min) – in Cardiff, whilst France found their attacking mojo once again against Italy, putting the Azzurri to the sword in a 73-24 rout.

Ireland were not at their best for large parts of the Welsh game – and with older rules, where a red card was permanent rather than 20 minutes, they may well have lost – but they showed resilience once again to come from behind, with excellent scramble defence and the kicking of Sam Prendergast off the tee both holding up under pressure.

The weakness of their scrum will be seen as a worry – The new-look Wales front-row of Nicky Smith, Elliot Dee and WillGriff John won three early scrum penalties – whilst Matt Sheratt’s side found attacking opportunities quickly, something the French backs are more than capable of doing.

Les Bleus, who made seven of changes in response to an unlucky defeat at Twickenham, put Italy to the sword in an incredible rout two weeks ago, scoring 11 tries in an incredible attacking display. The back three of Leo Barre, Théo Attissogbe and the extraordinary Lous Bielle-Biarrey were barely believable, whilst Thomas Ramos relished being back at flyhalf alongside Antoine Dupont.

Fabien Galthie has made changes yet again – Romain Ntmack returns from a red card ban to play at 10, Damien Penaud is back on the wing, Ramos moves to fullback and there’s also another bomb squad, with a 7-1 split of forwards and backs on the bench including Julien Marchand, Cyril Baille, Meafou and Anthony Jelonch.

Against a team of Ireland’s power this could make a crucial difference, although in what’s sure to be a physically testing game, it’s much more of a risk than it was against Italy, who were quickly out of proceedings.

The tactical battle here will be huge. Ireland have a versatile backline who can run the ball back or kick it long, whilst the French will be looking to counter-attack if they can stop the hosts going through the phases. The visitors will also look to target the scrum and lineout, where Ireland have shown some weakness, with set piece plays providing plenty of opportunity for Les Bleus.

However, the market may have overreacted based on their rout of Italy a fortnight ago, and France will need to be more accurate than ever to bypass the best defence in the Championship at the Aviva Stadium. Dry weather for most of the game (rain forecast between 3-4pm) should assist the visitors, but the hosts have been the standard setters in the Championship and with home advantage, they can just secure what would be a championship defining win.

There’s precious little between these two sides on paper, so the tie at 22/1 looks value, and should be backed along with an Ireland win by 1-10 points.

Teams:

🇮🇪 Ireland:15 Hugo Keenan, 14 Jamie Osborne, 13 Robbie Henshaw, 12 Bundee Aki, 11 James Lowe, 10 Sam Prendergast, 9 Jamison Gibson-Park, 8 Caelan Doris (c), 7 Josh van der Flier, 6 Peter O’Mahony, 5 Tadhg Beirne, 4 Joe McCarthy, 3 Finlay Bealham, 2 Dan Sheehan, 1 Andrew Porter

Replacements: 16 Rob Herring, 17 Cian Healy, 18 Thomas Clarkson, 19 James Ryan, 20 Jack Conan, 21 Ryan Baird, 22 Conor Murray, 23 Jack Crowley

🇫🇷 France:15 Thomas Ramos, 14 Damian Penaud, 13 Pierre-Louis Barassi, 12 Yoram Moefana, 11 Louis Bielle-Biarrey, 10 Romain Ntamack, 9 Antoine Dupont (c), 8 Gregory Alldritt, 7 Paul Boudehent, 6 Francois Cros, 5 Mickaël Guillard, 4 Thibaud Flament, 3 Uini Atonio, 2 Peato Mauvaka, 1 Jean-Baptiste Gros

Replacements:16 Julien Marchand, 17 Cyril Baille, 18 Dorian Aldegheri, 19 Emmanuel Meafou, 20 Hugo Auradou, 21 Oscar Jegou, 22 Anthony Jelonch, 23 Maxime Lucu

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  🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Scotland v Wales 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 (Saturday 4.45pm, Murrayfield)

A tale of two sides coming off very different defeats here. Scotland arrive having snatched defeat from the jaws of victory in an agonising Calcutta Cup defeat, having scored three tries to England’s one, made nine clean breaks to just two fore the hosts, and beaten 35 defenders compared to 10 for England, all before Finn Russell’s last minute missed conversion.

Wales arrive after defeat by Ireland, albeit with more hope than they have at anytime, in the last two years after a stirring showing, helped by the arrival of new coach Matt Sherratt and a number of changes, especially in the backline.

Going to Murrayfield will represent a different task but they look a new team already and this game could have more to offer than the odds suggest – the hosts are asked to give up as much as 18 points on Star’s two-way handicaps, which is a tall order based on pure statistics.

Scotland have only won by more than 16 points (Star’s midway handicap line) in two of their last 10 Six Nations victories, against Wales in 2023 and Italy in 2021. That 2023 defeat may worry some here but Wales looked a different side in a short space of time and may be priced up on previous form.

Sherratt’s backline changes – moving Ben Thomas back to his original position of 12, brining Gareth Anscombe to 10 alongside Tomas Williams, and giving Ellis Mee a chance on the wing – had an instant impact against Ireland, who were possibly saved by the 20 minute red card rule, meaning that Garry Ringrose’s absence hit them for only 20 minutes rather than nearly 50.

The front row of Nicky Smith, Elliot Dee and WillGriff John won three scrum penalties from their early clashed with Ireland and Jac Morgan and Talupe Faletau were also outstanding in the backrow, giving Ireland an 80-minute contest.

In the same form they can give Scotland – who had everything but the finishing touch against England – a serious test. The Scots were terribly unlucky not to have taken victory there (much of the focus was on Finn Russell’s late conversion, but they ought to have been further clear), and will hope to find the tryline more, but they face a Wales side that impressed against Ireland, enough to think that they can cause trouble for the hosts. Take them with a heavy start on the handicap, whilst a Scottish win by 1-10 points is also potential value.

Teams

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Scotland: 15 Blair Kinghorn, 14 Darcy Graham, 13 Huw Jones, 12 Tom Jordan, 11 Duhan van der Merwe, 10 Finn Russell (cc), 9 Ben White, 8 Jack Dempsey, 7 Rory Darge (cc), 6 Jamie Ritchie, 5 Grant Gilchrist, 4 Jonny Gray, 3 Zander Fagerson, 2 Dave Cherry, 1 Pierre Schoeman

Replacements: 16 Ewan Ashman, 17 Rory Sutherland, 18 Will Hurd, 19 Gregor Brown, 20 Matt Fagerson, 21 George Horne, 22 Stafford McDowall, 23 Kyle Rowe

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 Wales: 15 Blair Murray, 14 Tom Rogers, 13 Max Llewellyn, 12 Ben Thomas, 11 Ellis Mee, 10 Gareth Anscombe, 9 Tomos Williams, 8 Taulupe Faletau, 7 Tommy Reffell, 6 Jac Morgan (c), 5 Dafydd Jenkins, 4 Will Rowlands, 3 WillGriff John, 2 Elliot Dee, 1 Nicky Smith

Replacements:16 Dewi Lake, 17 Gareth Thomas, 18 Keiron Assiratti, 19 Teddy Williams, 20 Aaron Wainwright, 21 Rhodri Williams, 22 Jarrod Evans, 23 Joe Roberts

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BACK Ireland to win by 1-10 points 3 pts at 21/10 (⭐ ? CLICK TO BET NOW)
BACK Tie 1 pt at 22/1 (⭐ ? CLICK TO BET NOW)

RECOMMENDED BETS – Scotland v Wales
BACK Wales +18.5 4 pts at 4/6 (⭐ ? CLICK TO BET NOW)
BACK Scotland to win by 1-10 points 1 pt at 14/5 (⭐ ? CLICK TO BET NOW)

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