POLITICS VOTE 24

AUTHOR: William Kedjanyi

VOTE 24: Gamechanger

This year is sure to be remembered for many historic political moments, and none may be bigger or more consequential than President Biden’s decision to leave this year’s election, whilst endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic Party’s new candidate, writes WILLIAM KEDJANYI.

Support for Harris has been extremely swift overnight. Harris already has a majority of House Democrats (153, at the time of writing), 32 Senate Democrats on board and twelve of the nation’s 23 Democratic governors. Two key unions — SEIU and AFT — are on board, and four state delegations to the Chicago convention (New Hampshire, North Carolina, South Carolina and Tennessee) have voted to back her.

A huge amount has happened since the last blog – the attempted assignation of Donald Trump was another game changing moment in the campaign, coming just before the RNC, where JD Vance was confirmed as Trump’s running mate – and there’s much to reflect on.

Here’s the latest betting for the US Presidency:

🗳️ Donald Trump: ?
🗳️ Kamala Harris: ?
🗳️ Michelle Obama: ?
🗳️ Gavin Newsom: ?
🗳️ Gretchen Whitmer: ?
🗳️ Robert F Kennedy Jr: ?

And a countdown to Polling Day:



And the first remarks from Vice President Harris since the news broke:


⬆️ LATEST UPDATES AT THE TOP ⬆️

🔵 They’re Off

📺 With the Tory leadership contest officially underway, I went onto GB News to discuss the early betting with Tom Harwood and Emily Carver. Check it out below:

They’re Running

Some breaking news:

7 candidates have indicated to the 1922 committee chair that they wish to stand in the Tory leadership contest (details of rules lower on the page):

🔵 James Cleverly
🔵 Priti Patel
🔵 Robert Jenrick
🔵 Kemi Badenoch
🔵 Tom Tugendhat
🔵 Mel Stride
🔵 Suella Braverman

The latest odds with Star are – at the time of writing:

🔵 Kemi Badenoch: 2/1
🔵 Robert Jenrick: 11/4
🔵 Tom Tugendhat: 9/2
🔵 James Cleverly: 11/2
🔵 Priti Patel: 10/1
🔵 Mel Stride: 25/1
🔵 Suella Braverman: 40/1
🔵 Victoria Atkins: 40/1


📊 Poll Alert

Another new poll has dropped from CNN/SSRI, which could provide a bit of helpful context due to some notable factors.

The latest data comes from SSRS, and they have gone back to a random national sample of 1,631 registered voters who participated in CNN polls in April or June and were originally drawn from a probability-based panel. The survey was also conducted 22-23rd June, meaning that all respondents would have been aware of Biden’s dropout and endorsement of Harris – and the surveys were conducted either online or by telephone with a live interviewer.

The data tables are below, but some notable factors at first glance are:

Democratic aligned voters in the poll want someone with swing state appeal as her running mate. 4 in 10 respondents under that category said it was ‘extremely important’. 28% think it’s extremely important that her running mate bring ideological balance to the ticket and 25% say it’s important that her running mate has experience as an executive in government.

Harris has improved amongst the Democratic base. Among voters under 35, 49% expressed support for Trump while 42% favored Biden in April and June. However, the latest numbers show 47% supporting Harris and 43% backing Trump. Previously, Black voters favour Biden over Trump by 70% to 23%. Now, these voters support Harris 78% to 15%. Among Hispanic voters, Biden previously trailed Trump 50% to 41%; the current split is nearly even, with 47% supporting Harris and 45% Trump. In earlier polls, women were evenly split at 46% for both Biden and Trump, but now they favour Harris 50% to 45%. A continued increase in these numbers would only strengthen her chances.

Independent voters who broke 47% Trump to 37% Biden in previous polls now just favour Trump (46%) to Harris (43%) – that’s driven by increased Harris support among independents who lean Democratic – a jump of 9% (81% of voters in that group supported Biden in April or June, 90% of them now back Harris).

**CNN Poll Conducted by SSRS**
**July 22-23**
**Registered Voters**
**Choice for President**

**No Clear Leader**

– 🔴 Trump: 49%
– 🥥🌴Harris: 46%

*Margin of error: +/- 3.0% pts*

**Registered Voters**
**Choice for President**

| Age Group | Harris | Trump |
|————|——–|——-|
| Age 18-34 | 47% | 43% |
| Age 35-49 | 47% | 45% |
| Age 50-64 | 42% | 55% |
| Age 65+ | 48% | 51% |

*Margin of error: +/- 6.8% pts*

**Registered Voters**
**Choice for President**

| Demographic | Harris | Trump |
|—————-|——–|——-|
| White voters | 39% | 57% |
| Black voters | 78% | 15% |
| Latino voters | 47% | 45% |

**Registered Voters**
**Approve of Biden’s Decision to End Campaign**

| Group | Approval Rate |
|—————|—————|
| Democrats | 90% |
| Independents | 88% |
| Republicans | 85% |


🗳️ The VP Choice

If the current Vice President is running for the top office, that means one thing – we get a new running mate!

Who could end up as Harris’ running mate? Let’s have a look at the contenders.

Mark Kelly (Arizona Senator)

Brings the immediate advantage of being in a key battleground state and has a hell of a backstory – his wife Gabby Giffords, then a Congresswoman, was shot when meeting with constituents in 2011. The pair became advocates for Gun safety and in 2020 Kelly – a moderate democrat. Became the first Democrat to hold the seat since 1962m when winning a special election against Republican Martha McSally. He won re-election in 2022.

Josh Shapiro (Governor of Pennsylvania)

Beat far right opponent Doug Mastriano – who had a poor campaign littered with mistakes from the off – in a crucial 2023 election. That added to an impressive record – the 51-year-old served as the state’s attorney general, county commissioner and state representative before becoming governor – and he’s outperformed Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton in the state. Given the importance of Pennsylvania (it’s 19 Electoral College votes are the largest amongst battleground states) he would be a major asset in that regard.

Andy Beshear (Kentucky Governor)

Managed to jump upto the national conversation when he won convincingly in a Conservative state with a pro-reproductive-rights message. His performance can’t be underestimated – he won his re-election bid by 5% in a state that Biden had lost by 26 points in 2020.

He brings a unique brand – he separated himself from the national party and had a laser focus on state issues, including economic progress, and reposes to natural disasters whilst also advocating support for abortion rights and also speaking out on education. Has already endorsed Harris for President on Morning Joe, when he didn’t exactly jump out as wanting the chance, when asked about being a potential running mate: “The only way I would consider something other than this current job is if I believed I could further help my people and to help this country.”

Is his Governorship too valuable to give up?

Roy Cooper (North Carolina Governor)

Another man who could bring crossover appeal to the tucket, having won both his races for governor in years Trump carried North Carolina at the presidential level. Also, he’s close with Harris from their time there.

Perhaps more available to others due to the fact that he’s term limited – which could be an advantage given that many of the key contenders have valuable Governorships which a Harris campaign will help hugely.

A potential Cooper advantage is that he’d compliment the Democrats abortion stance – he’s been a champion of abortion rights in a state where Republicans enjoy close to a supermajority in the Legislature, vetoing several anti-abortion bills, although some of those have ben overridden. He has also focused heavily on expanding Medicaid, passing bills through both chambers with the help of Republicans who got on board with that effort.

Was asked about joining Harris as her running mate on Morning Joe (Monday) and responded: “I appreciate people talking about me, but I think the focus right now needs to be on her this week, and she needs to concentrate on making sure that she secures his nomination and gets the campaign ready to go.”

William McRaven (Retired Admiral)

Reportedly already undergoing vetting by allies of Harris, and most well-known for organising and overseeing the killing of Osama Bin Laden in 2011. Has since emerged one of Trump’s biggest critics in the National Security scene. Went viral for his 2014 University of Texas commencement speech about his 10 lessons for living a meaningful life – one of the lessons was to ‘make your bed’. Would give a tough message and also wouldn’t put any governorships or Senate seats, but also a left-field choice given the political skills of other contenders on offer.

JB Pritzker (Illinois Governor)

Quick to endorse Harris – did so on Monday – and managed to bring the DNC to his state after sustained lobbying. Has pushed on plenty of progressive areas – he’s been including a ban on assault weapons, an increase in the minimum wage; a measure to enshrine abortion protections into law; and measures to legalize cannabis and expunge records.

As a billionaire who has self-finances his campaigns in the past, he can also add even more cash to the Democratic kitty and he’s a second term Governor who’s popular in the state, so his potential as an attack dog is notable.

Raphael Warnock (Georgia Senator)

A prolific winner of elections in Georgia – he’s been on the ballot five times since 2020, with one Democratic primary, two general elections and two runoffs, and he has finished first each time –and the first black person to be elected as a Senator in Georgia.

However, unlikely to be chosen due to the fact that under Georgia law, Democrats would lose the seat if he was on a winning presidential ticket – and they have only a narrow majority in the Senate which they will be desperate to maintain.

Here are the live prices with Star Sports:

🔵 Josh Shapiro: ?
🔵 Roy Cooper: ?
🔵 Andy Beshear: ?
🔵 Mark Kelly: ?
🔵 Pete Buttigieg: ?
🔵 Gavin Newsom: ?
🔵 Jay Robert Pritzker: ?
🔵 Gretchen Whitmer: ?


📊 Poll Alert

The coconut enjoyers are on the charge and they will be partying tonight – here are the results of the first poll since Biden dropped out, from IPSOS, for Reuters:

🥥🌴 Kamala Harris: 42%
🔴 Donald Trump: 38%
⚪️ RFK Jr: 8%
(MoE +/-3%)

Head to head:
🥥🌴 Harris: 44%
🔴 Trump: 42%

🗂️ Fieldwork: Monday & Tuesday, post Biden dropout announcement

📊 Sample: 1,241 U.S. adults nationwide, including 1,018 registered voters, conducted online

The most important takeaway?

“The most recent poll showed 56% of registered voters agreed with a statement that Harris, 59, was “mentally sharp and able to deal with challenges,” compared to 49% who said the same of Trump, 78.”

“Only 22% of voters assessed Biden that way.”

Do remember: This is the first of many polls – there’s likely to be a lot of noise in these next few days whilst voters adjust possibly, and of course we’ll want to see swing state polling. Look at the underlying cross tabs when released to see performance with key groups too – gains with 2020 Democratic voters will be key for Harris to gain back ground on Trump, and also the battle for Independents is absolutely vital.


⏰ When will it be Joever?

Joe Biden has dropped out of his re-election bid, but he still remains the president. However, a growing number of people have asked the question – if you’re not fit enough to run, are you fit enough to serve?

We’ve put that question to the test – we’re now betting on if Joe Biden will serve out his term (which ends on the 20th January, 2025). Our starting prices are:

Yes: 4/7
No: 5/4

🥥🌴 It’s…. Kamala!

It’s all but official – Vice-President Kamala Harris has secured the support of a majority of Democratic delegates to become the party’s nominee for president.

A survey by the Associated Press on Monday evening said she had received the endorsement of more than the 1,976 delegates needed to win the nomination in the first round of voting and with the party’s biggest names – including President Biden – behind her, we can consider her essentially home and hosed.

She’s now 13/8 with Star Sports from 9/4 yesterday.


🎰 View from the Trading Room

It’s been a while since the last blog update – and we’ve only had one of the wildest fortnights in the history of any Presidential Race. Here’s a mega update for John Brackenridge, in the trading room:

💬 “We thought we might have had a couple of weeks post the UK election to catch our breathe a little but we were very wrong. The market hasn’t stopped on this one, to the extent it has felt like we’ve been trading it In Play at times, and this is more than 3 months out so who knows what we have got to come!

From a trading perspective we laid 50k Biden for a second term back in April, so we got a bit of luck on that one with the money already in the hod. We’d also laid Trump 50k at 1/8 for Dem nominee which has been paid, a turn of the head and it could have been a different story.

We were sat with Michelle Obama as the big loser in the Dem nominee book after Biden’s decision not to stand, that was until we laid 20k 1/10 Harris which gave us a nicer looking book, though it looks ever more likely the client will be paid out in the coming weeks, as it stands anyway.

JD Vance was a good result for the firm in the Rep VP book. We opened betting on Dem VP yesterday with early money immediately coming for Roy Cooper and Mark Kelly.

Being in some strong positions we have decided the time is now to try and lay Trump, we are industry top price 8/13, singles and multis welcome, for as long as we can keep it and this is available to both new and old clients.”


A New Race Begins

Vice President Kamala Harris has given her first specific campaign address since Biden dropped out. Here are some highlights below:

Immediate reactions are:

This is a different person to the one that ran in 2020. Harris – albeit infront of paid staffers – exuded confidence and hit her attack lines in style. Things will get harder of course, but she couldn’t have asked for a better start.

We saw the narrative attack that the Democrats are likely to employ – the prosecutor v the felon – was seen for the first time. What voters will make of it remain to be seen – Independents and wavering Democrats matter hugely here, with Republican support for Trump very much baked in.

With 105 days left, the campaign is about to head into blitz mode. A lot of airspace has been left with concerns over Biden and the private battle to get him to step down – with no candidate concerns be ready to see Democrats on the attack with their major figures to make up for lost time, with Harris front and center. Watch out for Newsom, Whitmer, and others too.

Look closely to Trump and Vance’s attack lines over the next week to see how they respond to their new challenge. Expect a lot of policy attack ads over the next few days but on the stump, a new approach is needed with Biden gone.


🥥🌴 Are We Unburdened?

With the backing of President Biden – and so many Democratic big hitters – at the time of writing Kamala Harris is the overwhelming favourite to be the nominee. However, it’s not confirmed – Democratic delegates are heading to the Democratic National Convention in Chicago.

The Democratic National Convention is set to start on August 19. If multiple contenders were to make a run at the nomination – something which is unlikely, but still technically possible – then it could lead to the first open convention in decades.

In such a scenario, delegates would have the freedom to choose among multiple candidates.

To be listed on the ballot, candidates must obtain signatures from at least 300 delegates, with no more than 50 from any one state.

Initially, the 3,900 pledged delegates, who are considered loyal to the Democratic Party, will vote. If no candidate secures a majority in this first round, additional rounds of voting will occur. These subsequent rounds will include superdelegates, party leaders, and elected officials, who will continue voting until a nominee is selected.

A candidate needs 1,976 delegate votes to win the party nomination.

UPDATE: Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi has endorsed Kamala Harris – perhaps the strongest signal yet that there will be little of any opposition to the Vice President as the Democratic Nominee:


🗳️ What next?

Presuming that Harris is the nominee, she has 105 days to take the attack to Donald Trump, especially in the key swing states that Biden took to edge out a narrow victory in 2020. The road to the White House this year runs through seven swing states, those being Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

With a dramatic change in age (Harris is 59 to Trump’s 77, making him the oldest Republican nominee in US history), the dynamic of the campaign has changed hugely, with Republicans – and Donald Trump especially – losing their biggest campaign advantage in their portrayal of Biden as senile and weak.

Initial commendatory on social media suggests that many are struggling to cope with the turnaround, and whilst there are plenty of policy attacks Republicans can make (immigration and crime looks sure to play an even bigger part in messaging now) Harris’ superior conditioning should allow her to respond in kind regularly.


📊 What do the polls say?

So how does Harris fare in head-to-head matchups against Trump? Here’s some extremely helpful context from the top US poll analyst Adam Carlson. He can be found at @admcrlsn:

Around the same as Biden, if not slightly worse. However, that polling exists in the context of all in which it lived and what came before it. Harris’ likely elevation to the Democratic nomination, massively increased exposure, and direct contrast with Trump could all change responses, which will take time to feed back to pollsters.

Don’t forget the fundamentals, either. Here’s helpful context from the excellent Kieran Pedley of IPSOS:

There will be a lot of polling in the next week as broadcasters, politicians and analysts try to evaluate her appeal after Biden’s drop out but that can produce noisy polling. US election polls have performed better closer to polling day in previous years, it’s still nearly a month util the Democratic National Convention, and Biden only dropped out yesterday. There’s a long way to go with regards to the polls.


🔵 Them’s The Rules

🗳️ On these shores, we now know the rules of the Conservative Party’s leadership race. It’s a long contest – we’ll learn the identity of the new Tory Leader three days before the US goes to the polls. How about a quiet week, eh?

Candidates will need a proposer, a seconder and 8 nominations to proceed to the ballot.

⏰ Nominations open tonight at 7pm and will close at 2.30pm on Monday.

Once that deadline has passed, the parliamentary party will narrow down the candidates to four.

What happens then?

🎙️ The four candidates will have the chance to make their case to the wider party at the Conservative conference in September.

At that point, the parliamentary party will reduce the field to two, which members will then vote on.

The returning officer will be Bob Blackman MP, the chairman of the 1922 Committee.


🌎 World Reaction

Here’s some reaction from world leaders to Joe Biden’s decision not to continue with his campaign:

🇬🇧 Keir Starmer

🇺🇦 Volodymyr Zelensky

🇨🇦 Justin Trudeau

🇩🇪 Olaf Scholz

Emmanuel Macron: “I do have respect for Biden, for what he did, I imagine how… difficult it was for him and his family.”

Irish Taoiseach Simon Harris: “Biden a proud American with an Irish soul” + thanked him for his “global leadership” and “friendship.”

Office of South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol: “Will continue to work closely with the US to further develop the South Korea-US global comprehensive strategic alliance.”


WILLIAM KEDJANYI 

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